1/16 A concluding 🧵on #NoToRussianLaw protests against the Russian-inspired law in Georgia. A big win for Georgian society, but the ruling Georgian Dream party has not suffered a strategic defeat yet:
2/16 Background: the Georgian Dream (GD) party created a spin-off group People's Power in August 2022 in order to openly and actively push anti-Western sentiments and 🇷🇺 friendly discourse in 🇬🇪. Over the months, the group lambasted the U.S. Embassy in 🇬🇪 and Ambassador Degnan.
3/16 The group of MPs has remained in the parliamentary majority and continued to be full-fledged members of the ruling party. To increase the reach of their disinformation campaigns, one of the members of People's Power MP Viktor Japaridze acquired the POSTV channel.
4/16 The POSTV is a Russian-style propaganda channel previously linked to the Georgian Dream. The primary objective of the channel is to disrepute the opposition, discredit pro-Western forces, support GD's policies and attack international partners.
5/16 Past few months, People's Power echoed and amplified GD's propaganda rhetoric that the West is trying to drag Georgia into war against Russia forcing it to open "the second front". They also scolded the Ukrainian govt for its criticism of Georgia's lack of support.
6/16 In January, People's power proposed two draft laws on "foreign agents". The bills would require NGOs and media organizations to register as “agents of foreign influence” if 20% of their funds come from abroad. Failure to comply would result in fines of around 9 000$.
7/16 The second “foreign agent” draft law also included individuals and legal entities, with more harsh penalties, including prison time. The tandem of GD and People's Power underlined that the purpose of the bills was to increase transparency.
8/16 In reality, every legal entity in 🇬🇪 is already required to audit and submit information about their funds to the Ministry of Finance and Revenue Service. The bills basically mirrored the Russian law on foreign agents adopted in 2012.
9/16 Int'l partners including the US, EU, NATO & others criticized the bills and called on the govt to refuse to pass them. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 made it very clear that the bills go against 🇬🇪's Euro-Atlantic path, 12 recommendations for the EU candidacy & the will of the GEO people.
10/16 The majority passed the first bill on 7 March in its first reading which sparked massive protests as GEO society felt that it undermines democracy, jeopardizes the country's European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations and most importantly goes against the will of the GEO people.
11/16 GD tried to crack down on protests for 2 days using tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons. However, the GEO people showed their determination and the GD was forced to make a U-turn. GD dropped the first draft law and recalled the second as well as released the detainees.
12/16 After this huge blow, the Kremlin activated a disinformation campaign about the protests accusing the West of staging the "Maidan revolution" in Georgia. The Kremlin and Georgian Dream narratives about protests were aligned. medium.com/dfrlab/the-kre…
13/16 The GD made a tactical retreat rather than a surrender. For sure, it is a big interim win for Georgian society. However, the GD might attempt the counter-offensive as they prepare for the 2024 elections, therefore civil society must be vigilant.
14/16 The demonstrations have been self-organized without opposition parties leading them. Gen Z became a driving force for resolute protests as they understand the perks of democracy better than anybody. Hence, the 🇬🇪 democracy is in good hands.
15/16 The protests created a wave in pop-culture too.
📽️ Ziad Aliev
16/16 P.S Georgia and Ukraine will prevail. Vse bude Ukraina and Sakartvelo. 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #TbilisiProtests#NoToRussia
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Important observations by Oleh Shyriaiev, Commander of Ukraine's 225th Separate Assault Regiment:
Systematically targeting Russian tactical-level commanders and their drone units — disrupting the entire drone operator network — would yield a far greater battlefield impact. 1/9
Eliminating the commander of a Russian field army would not significantly alter the situation on the battlefield. Wars are driven at the tactical level — by battalion and company commanders, by those directly commanding forces on the ground. 2/9
Strikes at the strategic level — targeting the adversary’s defense-industrial base, fuel infrastructure, and logistical networks — remain both necessary and effective. These efforts degrade the opponent’s overall warfighting capacity and should continue uninterrupted. 3/9
Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov:
In December, Russia suffered record losses — 35,000 troops killed and severely wounded. All of these figures have been verified. Ukraine’s strategic objective is to inflict at least 50,000 confirmed enemy casualties per month. 1/8
Russia cannot win this war on the battlefield, which is why it continues to wage war against the civilian population and critical infrastructure. Today, Russia carried out one of the most massive ballistic attacks against Ukraine, employing more than 20 ballistic missiles. 2/8
The most effective means of countering ballistic missiles are PAC-3 interceptors for the Patriot system. We critically need additional interceptors to shoot down ballistic missiles, as Russia seeks to destroy our critical infrastructure this winter. 3/8
General Andriy Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
Peace, in practical terms, means forcing Russia into a strategic stalemate — a dead end in which further advances are either impossible or achievable only at completely unacceptable losses. 1/14
Only then does it make sense for them to sit down at the negotiating table.
if the winter is endured and Russian advances are fully halted in the spring, making it evident that Moscow’s objectives in the Donbas are unattainable, the situation would change fundamentally. 2/14
Should it become clear that even 2026 is unrealistic for achieving these aims, genuine and serious incentives for the Russian leadership to enter negotiations are likely to emerge. 3/14
The active front line stretches about 1,200 km; the kill zone extends 15–20 km in depth.
Enemy strength is around 712,000 personnel, but casualty levels exceed Russia’s ability to replenish forces. 1/6
Kupiansk: Russian diversionary groups of up to 40–50 fighters remain in the city. Russia is actively using fiber-optic drones at distances of 30 km and beyond.
In Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, measures are underway to improve the tactical positions of Ukrainian forces. 2/6
Work continues to increase the effectiveness of drones in air defense. Plans include redistributing functions between surface-to-air missile forces and a new branch of forces responsible for protecting critical infrastructure. 3/6
The Russian economy has entered one of its weakest years in 2026 since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 1/12
Russia’s energy revenues fell by about one-fifth last year compared with 2024. High interest rates and a heavy debt burden are squeezing corporate profitability, pushing up the number of financially distressed firms, while lower oil prices and the absence of meaningful growth are further undermining budget revenues. 2/12
As Russian businesses were still adjusting to a VAT hike, officials quickly turned to raising new and existing taxes to patch a budget gap made worse by the collapse in oil and gas revenues in early 2026. 3/12
Ukraine’s strategy in 2026 is largely built around holding existing front lines while pursuing a sustained campaign of exhaustion against Russian manpower and the Russian economy. 1/15
As President Zelenskyy and the new Defense Minister Fedorov have stated, Ukraine’s target is to inflict up to 50,000 Russian troop casualties per month. In December 2025, Ukrainian forces eliminated approximately 35,000 Russian soldiers. 2/15
If the figures are accurate, Ukraine has significantly increased its kill rate since early 2025. According to the Ministry of Digital Transformation, more than 20,000 Russian soldiers per month were verified as killed or severely wounded at the beginning of 2025. 3/15