1/16 A concluding 🧵on #NoToRussianLaw protests against the Russian-inspired law in Georgia. A big win for Georgian society, but the ruling Georgian Dream party has not suffered a strategic defeat yet:
2/16 Background: the Georgian Dream (GD) party created a spin-off group People's Power in August 2022 in order to openly and actively push anti-Western sentiments and 🇷🇺 friendly discourse in 🇬🇪. Over the months, the group lambasted the U.S. Embassy in 🇬🇪 and Ambassador Degnan.
3/16 The group of MPs has remained in the parliamentary majority and continued to be full-fledged members of the ruling party. To increase the reach of their disinformation campaigns, one of the members of People's Power MP Viktor Japaridze acquired the POSTV channel.
4/16 The POSTV is a Russian-style propaganda channel previously linked to the Georgian Dream. The primary objective of the channel is to disrepute the opposition, discredit pro-Western forces, support GD's policies and attack international partners.
5/16 Past few months, People's Power echoed and amplified GD's propaganda rhetoric that the West is trying to drag Georgia into war against Russia forcing it to open "the second front". They also scolded the Ukrainian govt for its criticism of Georgia's lack of support.
6/16 In January, People's power proposed two draft laws on "foreign agents". The bills would require NGOs and media organizations to register as “agents of foreign influence” if 20% of their funds come from abroad. Failure to comply would result in fines of around 9 000$.
7/16 The second “foreign agent” draft law also included individuals and legal entities, with more harsh penalties, including prison time. The tandem of GD and People's Power underlined that the purpose of the bills was to increase transparency.
8/16 In reality, every legal entity in 🇬🇪 is already required to audit and submit information about their funds to the Ministry of Finance and Revenue Service. The bills basically mirrored the Russian law on foreign agents adopted in 2012.
9/16 Int'l partners including the US, EU, NATO & others criticized the bills and called on the govt to refuse to pass them. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 made it very clear that the bills go against 🇬🇪's Euro-Atlantic path, 12 recommendations for the EU candidacy & the will of the GEO people.
10/16 The majority passed the first bill on 7 March in its first reading which sparked massive protests as GEO society felt that it undermines democracy, jeopardizes the country's European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations and most importantly goes against the will of the GEO people.
11/16 GD tried to crack down on protests for 2 days using tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons. However, the GEO people showed their determination and the GD was forced to make a U-turn. GD dropped the first draft law and recalled the second as well as released the detainees.
12/16 After this huge blow, the Kremlin activated a disinformation campaign about the protests accusing the West of staging the "Maidan revolution" in Georgia. The Kremlin and Georgian Dream narratives about protests were aligned. medium.com/dfrlab/the-kre…
13/16 The GD made a tactical retreat rather than a surrender. For sure, it is a big interim win for Georgian society. However, the GD might attempt the counter-offensive as they prepare for the 2024 elections, therefore civil society must be vigilant.
14/16 The demonstrations have been self-organized without opposition parties leading them. Gen Z became a driving force for resolute protests as they understand the perks of democracy better than anybody. Hence, the 🇬🇪 democracy is in good hands.
15/16 The protests created a wave in pop-culture too.
📽️ Ziad Aliev
16/16 P.S Georgia and Ukraine will prevail. Vse bude Ukraina and Sakartvelo. 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #TbilisiProtests#NoToRussia
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ZN's interesting article on the outlook for the Russian economy in 2025
Since the start of the war, Russia has significantly restricted access to large volumes of statistical data, making it impossible to objectively assess the state of the Russian economy. 1/16⬇️
Furthermore, the limited data that is published shows substantial discrepancies when compared with other publicly available official sources. 2/16
This is especially evident in a critical macroeconomic indicator like the official inflation index, which fails to align with any alternative calculations. 3/16
General Kyrylo Budanov's prediction regarding the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2025:
Ukraine can look forward to a better year in 2025 compared to 2024, with the potential for numerous positive developments. 1/8 ⬇️
We are winning the drone war. However, the Russians have begun widespread use of fiber-optic drones. This poses a significant problem for us because electronic warfare (EW) systems cannot stop them, particularly when it comes to the use of FPV drones. 2/8
This is a new innovation and a trend this year. Next year, we will collectively work on finding a technological solution to combat the large number of these devices. 3/8
UP's very insightful piece about how Ukraine counters Russian UAVs:
From April to July 2024, Russian reconnaissance UAVs flew freely across the entire front line, in the relative rear — over the Dnipro and Sumy. 1/35
Even in the absolute rear — over Myrhorod in the Poltava region, 150 kilometers from the border. In Myrhorod, a Russian "Orlan" spied and later adjusted a missile strike on a military airfield in July 2024. 2/35
Using air defense missiles or scrambling fighter jets to target drones was expensive, and shooting at them with anti-aircraft guns, proved largely ineffective. Electronic warfare (EW) often failed to neutralize reconnaissance UAVs. 3/35
UP's must-read interview Company commander of the Achilles battalion Anton Shmagailo about the situation in the Kupayansk direction:
Of the 10 enemy infantrymen advancing to storm the tree lines, only one or two survive. 1/32⬇️
During mechanized assaults, the survival rate may be slightly higher.
The overall picture is clear: the enemy shows complete disregard for losses, both in manpower and equipment, as they continue their attempts to advance on the Kupiansk axis. 2/32
Looking at the map, our stronghold stretches along the left bank of the Oskil River, divided in two.
I do not foresee the enemy attempting to cross the river in this area anytime soon. 3/32
A deeply insightful interview with Deputy Commander of the Missile Forces and Artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhiy Musiyenko:
The need for artillery munitions is substantial - far more than has ever been supplied to us. 1/22 ⬇️
To put it simply, we are receiving only half the artillery munitions needed due to various factors. Consequently, this shortage is reflected in the current state of certain sectors of the front, where we are experiencing a deficit in specific types of artillery munitions. 2/22
In terms of proportions, in 2022, the Defense Forces used approximately 1.5 million artillery munitions, ranging from 120 mm mortars to rockets for MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket Systems). Half of these were 152 mm and 122 mm calibers, while a third were 155 mm rounds. 3/22
Russia will most likely face a significant manpower challenge to sustain its war effort against Ukraine in 2025.
Very insightful piece by WSJ:
Months before Putin’s inauguration in May, he met with Defense Ministry officials who pushed for a fresh round of mobilization. 1/7
to recruit more troops to offset Russia’s losses on the front line in Ukraine. Putin dismissed the idea, saying he wanted to use only those who were voluntarily signing military contracts. 2/7
While he has resisted a troop mobilization that could come at a political cost, Western estimates suggest Russia is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them. 3/7