1/16 A concluding 🧵on #NoToRussianLaw protests against the Russian-inspired law in Georgia. A big win for Georgian society, but the ruling Georgian Dream party has not suffered a strategic defeat yet:
2/16 Background: the Georgian Dream (GD) party created a spin-off group People's Power in August 2022 in order to openly and actively push anti-Western sentiments and 🇷🇺 friendly discourse in 🇬🇪. Over the months, the group lambasted the U.S. Embassy in 🇬🇪 and Ambassador Degnan.
3/16 The group of MPs has remained in the parliamentary majority and continued to be full-fledged members of the ruling party. To increase the reach of their disinformation campaigns, one of the members of People's Power MP Viktor Japaridze acquired the POSTV channel.
4/16 The POSTV is a Russian-style propaganda channel previously linked to the Georgian Dream. The primary objective of the channel is to disrepute the opposition, discredit pro-Western forces, support GD's policies and attack international partners.
5/16 Past few months, People's Power echoed and amplified GD's propaganda rhetoric that the West is trying to drag Georgia into war against Russia forcing it to open "the second front". They also scolded the Ukrainian govt for its criticism of Georgia's lack of support.
6/16 In January, People's power proposed two draft laws on "foreign agents". The bills would require NGOs and media organizations to register as “agents of foreign influence” if 20% of their funds come from abroad. Failure to comply would result in fines of around 9 000$.
7/16 The second “foreign agent” draft law also included individuals and legal entities, with more harsh penalties, including prison time. The tandem of GD and People's Power underlined that the purpose of the bills was to increase transparency.
8/16 In reality, every legal entity in 🇬🇪 is already required to audit and submit information about their funds to the Ministry of Finance and Revenue Service. The bills basically mirrored the Russian law on foreign agents adopted in 2012.
9/16 Int'l partners including the US, EU, NATO & others criticized the bills and called on the govt to refuse to pass them. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 made it very clear that the bills go against 🇬🇪's Euro-Atlantic path, 12 recommendations for the EU candidacy & the will of the GEO people.
10/16 The majority passed the first bill on 7 March in its first reading which sparked massive protests as GEO society felt that it undermines democracy, jeopardizes the country's European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations and most importantly goes against the will of the GEO people.
11/16 GD tried to crack down on protests for 2 days using tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons. However, the GEO people showed their determination and the GD was forced to make a U-turn. GD dropped the first draft law and recalled the second as well as released the detainees.
12/16 After this huge blow, the Kremlin activated a disinformation campaign about the protests accusing the West of staging the "Maidan revolution" in Georgia. The Kremlin and Georgian Dream narratives about protests were aligned. medium.com/dfrlab/the-kre…
13/16 The GD made a tactical retreat rather than a surrender. For sure, it is a big interim win for Georgian society. However, the GD might attempt the counter-offensive as they prepare for the 2024 elections, therefore civil society must be vigilant.
14/16 The demonstrations have been self-organized without opposition parties leading them. Gen Z became a driving force for resolute protests as they understand the perks of democracy better than anybody. Hence, the 🇬🇪 democracy is in good hands.
15/16 The protests created a wave in pop-culture too.
📽️ Ziad Aliev
16/16 P.S Georgia and Ukraine will prevail. Vse bude Ukraina and Sakartvelo. 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #TbilisiProtests#NoToRussia
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Ukraine’s strikes on Russian ports in the Baltic Sea have halted oil exports through these hubs.
This represents a significant blow to Russia, as an estimated 40–50% of its crude oil exports pass through Ust-Luga and Primorsk. 1/6
As a result, at least in the short term, Russia’s revenues will decline substantially. This comes at a time when improved ice conditions and higher oil prices would otherwise have allowed these ports to be used more actively and profitably. 2/6
During an offensive that has lasted just over a week, the Russian armed forces lost more than 11,000 personnel, around 80 armored vehicles, and over 300 artillery systems and rocket launchers. 3/6
European allies are publicly and privately telling American diplomats that Russia is directly and materially helping Iran's war efforts beyond what the U.S. will publicly acknowledge. 1/4
The Europeans are also continuing to argue that the war in Ukraine, the largest land war in Europe since World War II, is intertwined with the war in Iran due to the cooperation between Russia and Iran. 2/4
A U.K. official told CBS News that Russian-Iranian defense cooperation has ballooned in recent years, and Iranian technological advancement is now visible in the attacks in the Middle East. 3/4
Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East.
The Pentagon is considering whether to divert weapons intended for Ukraine to the Middle East as the war in Iran depletes some of the U.S. military’s most critical munitions. 1/6
Although a final decision to redirect the equipment has not yet been made, the shift would highlight the growing trade-offs required to sustain the U.S. war against Iran, where U.S. Central Command has hit more than 9,000 targets in just under four weeks of fighting. 2/6
The weapons that could be diverted away from Ukraine include air defense interceptor missiles, ordered through a NATO program launched last year in which partner countries buy U.S. arms for Kyiv. 3/6
Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
A reduction in Russian manpower is unlikely. Losses will be offset through continued recruitment and mobilization, and this process is expected to persist. 1/12
Even the prospect of internal strain or a domestic crisis is unlikely to alter this trajectory. As long as they achieve any tangible results on the battlefield—even minimal territorial gains—they will continue to feed additional manpower into the war. 2/12
This may involve sustained large-scale mobilization and the depletion of entire regions, alongside efforts to draw in new personnel from elsewhere. As long as the front continues to move, even marginally, they are likely to keep committing additional forces. 3/12
General Andriy Biletskyi, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
If current trends continue, by the end of the year units that actively integrate ground robotic systems could reduce the number of infantry required on the front line by up to 30%. 1/10
This year is likely to become a true breakthrough year for ground robotic systems.
The expanded use of UAVs, sensor networks, surveillance systems, and ground robotic platforms can substantially decrease the number of personnel required on the line of contact. 2/10
With sustained technological integration of these systems, it is realistic to reduce infantry presence on the front line by up to 30% in the near term, and potentially up to 80% over time. 3/10
Ukraine has pursued a strategy of bringing the war back to Russia, aiming to erode the perception that the full-scale invasion is distant and cost-free for Russian society.
An analysis suggests that strategy is beginning to reshape how the war is felt across Russia. 1/13
The strategy was explicitly articulated by President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2025, as Ukraine significantly expanded its deep-strike campaign inside Russia. 2/13
An internal analysis by the Ukrainian NGO Join Ukraine, shared with the Kyiv Independent, suggests that strategy is beginning to reshape how the war is felt across Russia. 3/13