1/16 A concluding 🧵on #NoToRussianLaw protests against the Russian-inspired law in Georgia. A big win for Georgian society, but the ruling Georgian Dream party has not suffered a strategic defeat yet:
2/16 Background: the Georgian Dream (GD) party created a spin-off group People's Power in August 2022 in order to openly and actively push anti-Western sentiments and 🇷🇺 friendly discourse in 🇬🇪. Over the months, the group lambasted the U.S. Embassy in 🇬🇪 and Ambassador Degnan.
3/16 The group of MPs has remained in the parliamentary majority and continued to be full-fledged members of the ruling party. To increase the reach of their disinformation campaigns, one of the members of People's Power MP Viktor Japaridze acquired the POSTV channel.
4/16 The POSTV is a Russian-style propaganda channel previously linked to the Georgian Dream. The primary objective of the channel is to disrepute the opposition, discredit pro-Western forces, support GD's policies and attack international partners.
5/16 Past few months, People's Power echoed and amplified GD's propaganda rhetoric that the West is trying to drag Georgia into war against Russia forcing it to open "the second front". They also scolded the Ukrainian govt for its criticism of Georgia's lack of support.
6/16 In January, People's power proposed two draft laws on "foreign agents". The bills would require NGOs and media organizations to register as “agents of foreign influence” if 20% of their funds come from abroad. Failure to comply would result in fines of around 9 000$.
7/16 The second “foreign agent” draft law also included individuals and legal entities, with more harsh penalties, including prison time. The tandem of GD and People's Power underlined that the purpose of the bills was to increase transparency.
8/16 In reality, every legal entity in 🇬🇪 is already required to audit and submit information about their funds to the Ministry of Finance and Revenue Service. The bills basically mirrored the Russian law on foreign agents adopted in 2012.
9/16 Int'l partners including the US, EU, NATO & others criticized the bills and called on the govt to refuse to pass them. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 made it very clear that the bills go against 🇬🇪's Euro-Atlantic path, 12 recommendations for the EU candidacy & the will of the GEO people.
10/16 The majority passed the first bill on 7 March in its first reading which sparked massive protests as GEO society felt that it undermines democracy, jeopardizes the country's European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations and most importantly goes against the will of the GEO people.
11/16 GD tried to crack down on protests for 2 days using tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons. However, the GEO people showed their determination and the GD was forced to make a U-turn. GD dropped the first draft law and recalled the second as well as released the detainees.
12/16 After this huge blow, the Kremlin activated a disinformation campaign about the protests accusing the West of staging the "Maidan revolution" in Georgia. The Kremlin and Georgian Dream narratives about protests were aligned. medium.com/dfrlab/the-kre…
13/16 The GD made a tactical retreat rather than a surrender. For sure, it is a big interim win for Georgian society. However, the GD might attempt the counter-offensive as they prepare for the 2024 elections, therefore civil society must be vigilant.
14/16 The demonstrations have been self-organized without opposition parties leading them. Gen Z became a driving force for resolute protests as they understand the perks of democracy better than anybody. Hence, the 🇬🇪 democracy is in good hands.
15/16 The protests created a wave in pop-culture too.
📽️ Ziad Aliev
16/16 P.S Georgia and Ukraine will prevail. Vse bude Ukraina and Sakartvelo. 🇬🇪🇺🇦 #TbilisiProtests#NoToRussia
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General Biletskyi, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
The next six are the most critical.
Four or five months into this year, it's much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point. 1/8
If Ukraine's military can build and maintain momentum over several months, it can gain the initiative along the frontline and push Russia to abandon its designs on the last part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine that it does not yet occupy. 2/8
We need to define those directions where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points, and then speak with the Russians from a position of strength - not weakness - about a truly stable truce. From a military point of view, this is realistic. 3/8
General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces:
What is modern war? The era of extremely expensive precision-guided weapons, which were the true game changers of the twentieth century, has been replaced by weapons of attrition. 1/14
These are cheap, mass-produced, yet highly accurate weapons that rapidly exhaust expensive weapons systems — the very systems upon which NATO doctrine is largely built. These weapons of attrition continue to evolve systematically and effectively. 2/14
If someone thinks these are simply drones that can quickly be purchased for an army, then they are deeply mistaken. By 2026, drones are increasingly becoming merely the final instrument of a broader technological system. 3/14
The people at the top in Russia are far from stupid. They live in a world of numbers, graphs, economic forecasts, geopolitical projections, and so on.
And all of those forecasts are looking increasingly grim for them, leaving little room for optimism. 1/11
Society is what it is. Society lives through the television reality created for it by this ruling elite. People still believe in the power of the Russian Federation, that it will eventually achieve something, that with just a little more time it will make a breakthrough. 2/11
But at the same time, doubts are already beginning to emerge — maybe it will achieve something, but clearly things are not going according to plan. 3/11
Ukraine continues striking strategically important Russian enterprises and military facilities, which has already begun influencing public opinion inside Russia itself. 1/6
According to public opinion polls conducted in Russia in early May, 18% of respondents identified Ukraine’s long-range strikes against strategic targets as the most important event of the week. Another 16% considered developments on the frontline to be the main issue. 2/6
The Russian population has begun to more clearly feel the physical reality of the war, the threats associated with it, destruction, deaths, and the accompanying inconveniences. 3/6
General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces current Ambassador to the UK:
International order is in a stage of disintegration.
International alliances, above all NATO, have lost part of their ability to guarantee the security of their members. 1/15
This is due primarily to technical unpreparedness for the use of force in modern warfare. It is also driven by the political inability of democratic institutions to make unpopular decisions. 2/15
It is also evident that the United States is gradually stepping away from its role as the principal defender of democratic values worldwide and, more specifically, of European democracy. 3/15
Very important statements by Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov:
Ukraine's strategic goal is to halt the enemy and seize the initiative on the battlefield, inflicting at least 200 casualties on the enemy for every square kilometer of advance. 1/7
In April, 35,203 Russian troops were killed or seriously wounded. In March, the figure stood at 35,351. Every square kilometer of Russian advance is becoming increasingly costly for the enemy. 2/7
The shutdown of Starlink access for Russian forces in February 2026 gave Ukraine a critical advantage.
Another strategic goal is to reach a stable 95% interception rate of aerial targets. 3/7