The statement by Maka Chikviladze, the spouse of the national hero of Georgia - Giorgi Antsukhelidze who was tortured and beat to death by Russian occupation forces in 2008 for refusing to kiss the earth: 1/5 - We, the family members of the soldiers who died in the war, who are already in great pain call on the Georgian authorities: 2/5

Many people asked for an explainer of the situation in Georgia 🇬🇪.

Here is my take on it:
- By alienating the EU for domestic political purposes, GD is pivoting away from the West and drifting back into Russia’s geopolitical orbit. 1/5 ⬇️

eurasianet.org/perspectives-g… - The legislation’s reintroduction at this point is nothing short of deliberate sabotage of Georgia's EU integration.
- With parliamentary elections coming this fall, GD’s strategic goal is to remain in power at all costs.  2/5

BBC's very interesting interview with Budanov:
- There is no reason to believe in Ukraine's strategic defeat. There are problems at the front, but we must also say frankly that these same problems did not appear today, and not a month ago, and not even three months ago. 1/11 - This is a systemic problem that we are facing. And at the same time, we must remember that Ukraine still exists.
The Russians had a real success at Avdiivka. It must be acknowledged. It's a fact. They were able to do it. 2/11

The West needs to reinvent itself to create a unified front, a concert of democracies, to contain, deter and counter the rapidly forming axis of adversaries - Russia, PRC, Iran and North Korea. The West has all the available resources to be successful in this endeavor. 1/6 ⬇️ But it must commit and devise a tailored and clear-cut strategy for preserving the rules-based international order. Ukraine is not simply "a peripheral conflict"; on the contrary, it lies at the heart of the global power struggle. 2/6

The West needs to reinvent itself to create a unified front, a concert of democracies, to contain, deter and counter the rapidly forming axis of adversaries - Russia, PRC, Iran and North Korea. The West has all the available resources to be successful in this endeavor. 1/6 ⬇️ But it must commit and determine a tailored and clear-cut strategy for preserving the rules-based international order. Ukraine is not simply "a peripheral conflict"; on the contrary, it lies at the heart of the global power struggle. 2/6

A thread on the legitimacy, rationale and objectives of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The U.S. stated two different reasons for asking Kyiv to halt attacks:
1. Sec. Austin stressed recent attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets. 1/13 2. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Wallander said the U.S. has concerns about attacking Russian refineries as those are civilian targets. 2/13

Very insightful points from General Cavoli's statement today:
- Ukraine cannot sustain this fight alone. The United States, our allies, and partners must continue to provide Ukraine with munitions, weapons, and materiel. 1/14 On Russia:
Russia relies on the mass and quantity available to a large country, and despite its military’s evident deficiencies and dysfunctions, continues to pose an existential threat to Ukraine. 2/14

Interesting points by President Zelenskyy from the interview with WaPo:
- Strikes on oil refineries
"The reaction of the U.S. was not positive on this but we used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t.” 1/8 "If there is no air defense to protect our energy system, and Russians attack it, my question is: Why can’t we answer them? Their society has to learn to live without petrol, without diesel, without electricity. … It’s fair.” 2/8

Macron's key statements in an interview with Ukrainian journalists (before the Weimar Triangle meeting):
- The role of Germany in the new coalition regarding long-range weapons is very important. We can all do more and influence each other. 1/6⬇️ - If there is another escalation from Russia, France is ready to respond for the sake of the security of Ukraine and Europe.
- On Nuclear deterrence: We must provide additional guarantees to Ukraine. 2/6

Key messages from Macron:
- There had been too many limits in our vocabulary. Those who say let's not support Ukraine do not make the choice of peace, they make the choice of defeat.
- About sending troops: We're not in that situation today but all these options are possible. ⬇️ - The continent's security is at stake and the conflict is existential for our Europe and for France. Russian victory in Ukraine would reduce Europe's credibility to zero.
- Russian victory in Ukraine would reduce Europe's credibility to zero we have no security. 2/

Macron is taking the European leadership seriously, a truly Churchillian speech:
"We negotiated as much as we could, but there is nothing to talk about with him [Putin], Ukraine must win. There will be no red lines. I am the President of France and I decide" "European security is at stake and the conflict is existential for our Europe and for France. Russian victory in Ukraine would reduce Europe's credibility to zero". added Macron

Gasoline prices have gone up in Russia - AI-95 type costs more than 60,000 rubles per ton - the highest since September 2023.

The main reason for rising prices is the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. 1/3⬇️ Russia has reintroduced a ban on gasoline exports for six months since March 1. However, the cost of fuel on the stock exchange is rising. The current increase in exchange prices is so far caused by concerns about the balance of supply and demand due to drone attacks. 2/3

WSJ has obtained a draft peace deal from 2022 between Ukraine and Russia. Numerous hugely detrimental provisions to Ukraine's sovereignty:
- Ukraine, while being allowed to pursue EU membership, wouldn’t be allowed to join military alliances such as NATO. 1/5 - No foreign weapons would be allowed on Ukrainian soil.
- Russian-occupied Crimea would remain under Moscow’s influence and not be considered neutral.
- The future of the area of eastern Ukraine wasn’t included in the draft. 2/5

THREAD - A very insightful read by FT on the Russian leaks, 29 secret Russian military files drawn up between 2008 and 2014:
Criteria for a potential nuclear response range from an enemy incursion on Russian territory to more specific triggers, such as the destruction of 20 percent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines. 1/7 The defensive plans expose deeply held suspicions of China among Moscow’s security elite even as Putin began forging an alliance with Beijing, which as early as 2001 included a nuclear no-first-strike agreement. 2/7

In this post, I will elaborate on pressing challenges for Ukraine and the West that need to be addressed:

- The West has to devise a comprehensive, long-term strategy for Ukraine, recognizing that the conflict is unlikely to end quickly. 1/19 ⬇️ - The current approach lacks determination and decisiveness and is primarily reactive to immediate needs.· “As long as it takes” is a flawed approach that leads to failure - Russia mobilized its economy, secured drone/ammo supplies from Iran and North Korea 2/19

In this tweet, I will elaborate on Russia’s strategy in 2024.

Here is the strategic outlook:

Russia’s major effort will remain to capture all of Donbas and consolidate its control over newly occupied territories of Ukraine, cementing the occupation regimes there. 1/18 ⬇️ Furthermore, Moscow will continue to erase Ukrainian identity through “Russification” including indoctrination in schools, forced passportization, eradication of the Ukrainian culture, etc. in the occupied areas. 2/18

An insightful interview on pressing issues with Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Chief of Defense Intelligence 🇺🇦

A long but very engaging thread.

Russian Objectives in 2024:
- One of the strategic goals of Russia is to capture the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. 1/17 - The second goal (and we can already see this from the documents that we have at our disposal) is to retain the newly occupied territories: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and part of the Kharkiv region. 2/17

Zelensky's powerful essay on the importance of the UK-Ukraine security agreement:

"The key word in this chapter will be the word security. Security for us in Ukraine, for all free nations of Europe, for everyone in the world who values democracy."

A quick reflection 1/11 This is exactly what is at stake in Ukraine: the Euro-Atlantic security, rules-based international order and broadly, democratic values. These notions are "obsolete" for Putin and his revisionist, neo-imperialistic foreign policy. 2/11

It is a historic agreement on security cooperation signed by Sunak and Zelensky today in Kyiv. The agreement is significant for both practical and political reasons especially when the Republican lawmakers are blocking a $60 billion package to 🇺🇦.

A quick thread (1/6): UK will continue provision of security assistance and modern military equipment, across the land, air and sea, space and cyber domains – prioritising air defence, artillery and long-range firepower, armoured vehicles, and other key capabilities as required. 2/6

Kyrylo Budanov's very interesting interview with Le Monde.

A long but gripping thread:

- Russian missile attacks stem from the desire to declare 2023 "victorious". The Russians did not have real military successes. 1/14 - Russian missiles have a number of shortcomings. They often miss targets. We immediately responded to their missile attacks, targeting military objects. 2/14

Insightful comments from Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR):

A spokesperson for HUR Andriy Yusov reiterated that 462.000 Russian troops are currently fighting against Ukraine. He added that it is not sufficient for a repeated large-scale offensive. 1/9 Earlier, HUR's Deputy Vadym Skibtskyi stated: "462,000 Russian troops are now fighting against Ukraine. 35.000 Rosgvardia soldiers are tasked to ensure regimes in temporarily occupied territories" 2/9