Political-Military Analyst • Former Senior Advisor to NSC of Georgia • Focused on Russian Foreign and Security Policy • Views my own
Even the prospect of internal strain or a domestic crisis is unlikely to alter this trajectory. As long as they achieve any tangible results on the battlefield—even minimal territorial gains—they will continue to feed additional manpower into the war. 2/12
This year is likely to become a true breakthrough year for ground robotic systems.
“If a battalion has no infantry left, the Russians don’t disband it but throw desk officers to the front. They are the easiest targets, because they can’t fight.” 2/6
With the first strategy, everything is clear, as with “Kyiv in three days”. Probably someone thought that this was also possible in Iran. But if the defending side switches to a strategy of attrition, the attacking side will definitely have big problems. 2/6
Over the course of a year, that becomes roughly 200,000 troops—a very large reserve that could be used to launch offensives on multiple fronts. 2/12
Until recently, they were deployed only dozens of times per month. In 2026, that number surpassed 7,000 operations: November — 2,931; December — 5,251; January — 7,495. 2/8
When information about operations becomes public too quickly, it can put soldiers at risk. Once information reaches higher levels on the enemy side, a reaction follows. Reserves are redeployed, units are transferred, and reinforcements are brought in. 2/12
As a result, external assistance is not necessarily critical for sustaining certain areas of production. One of Russia’s main strengths in small UAV development is its systematic approach. 2/15
The rate at which Russia is expending air-defense missiles exceeds its production capacity, meaning the available systems are insufficient to provide an equal level of protection for all strategic facilities. 2/11
Russia’s only optical fiber manufacturing plant - the Optic Fiber Systems in Saransk - has been out of operation since May 2025. 2/9
Ukraine Defense Drones makes most of its own components, and European suppliers fill most of the gaps. 2/11
This could mean even less pressure on Moscow than we have seen so far. Negotiations are already stalled due to the war.
Two sources within Ukraine's defense industry who asked to remain anonymous to discuss non-public negotiations told the Kyiv Independent that major contracts were up for discussion between the governments of Ukraine and Saudi Arabia. 2/6
At a closed-door White House meeting on Aug. 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered the interceptor drones to President Trump as a way to strengthen ties and, according to one official, show his thanks for U.S. support in the face of Russian aggression. 2/10
The sky was carefully watched and patrolled; any Russian surveillance drone within a 20-kilometer radius was to be shot down. Even the threat of detection could jeopardize the entire mission. 2/9
The attack marks the first time the ongoing Iran war has spilled into the South Caucasus.
Now Putin is about to mobilize 400,000 new soldiers, but his army has stopped growing: losses equal new recruits, they are immobilized, close to crisis. Serious negotiations will begin when his army starts shrinking. 2/12
It is very important that everyone can see that even with the amount of air defense that exists in the Middle East, you still see Shaheds getting through. I think now absolutely all partners will understand how high the level of our specialists and our military is. 2/9
There must be a balance between politicians and the military, so that politicians do not interfere too deeply in military matters, and the military, in turn, does not overstep into politics. 2/8
There is no third option. It simply does not exist. However skeptically many may look at peace negotiations, I hope we will achieve success — because that, too, will be our victory. 2/10