A powerful open letter from President Zelenskyy to Putin:

When you came to power in Russia more than 26 years ago, many people in Ukraine viewed you positively. That is how it was. But that is now in the past. 1/19 Now, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians view it positively that our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg, covering a distance of more than 1,000 kms. As you know very well, that distance is not the limit of our capabilities. 2/19

General Biletksyi, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

Russia’s winter campaign was largely unsuccessful, and its spring campaign has also failed to achieve its objectives.

A turning point is taking place at both the tactical and operational levels. 1/10 There are certainly many factors [why Ukraine is in the best position since the 2022 counteroffensive].

One of the key indicators is territorial gains, which reflect the capabilities of both armies. 2/10

General Budanov, Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office:

The fact that Putin is worried about his life is definitely true. There are certain reasons why he feels that way. A lot of it may be exaggerated, but ultimately people of his type tend to live with similar fears. 1/10 There are quite serious and intelligent people within the [Kremlin] system who are capable of analyzing what is happening. They can clearly see the trajectory of events and understand that regression and decline are visible in many areas. 2/10

My long comment for Newsweek:

The overall dynamics of the war are gradually shifting in Ukraine’s favor compared to previous months. The situation for Ukraine is markedly better than it was last year. 1/9 A notable recent development is that Kyiv has intensified its mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics at an operational depth of 18 to 65 miles inside occupied territories, such as in southeastern Ukraine. 2/9

General Biletskyi, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

The next six are the most critical.

Four or five months into this year, it's much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point. 1/8 If Ukraine's military can build and maintain momentum over several months, it can gain the initiative along the frontline and push Russia to abandon its designs on the last part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine that it ​does not yet occupy. 2/8

General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces:

What is modern war? The era of extremely expensive precision-guided weapons, which were the true game changers of the twentieth century, has been replaced by weapons of attrition. 1/14 These are cheap, mass-produced, yet highly accurate weapons that rapidly exhaust expensive weapons systems — the very systems upon which NATO doctrine is largely built. These weapons of attrition continue to evolve systematically and effectively. 2/14

General Budanov:

The people at the top in Russia are far from stupid. They live in a world of numbers, graphs, economic forecasts, geopolitical projections, and so on.

And all of those forecasts are looking increasingly grim for them, leaving little room for optimism. 1/11 Society is what it is. Society lives through the television reality created for it by this ruling elite. People still believe in the power of the Russian Federation, that it will eventually achieve something, that with just a little more time it will make a breakthrough. 2/11

Estonian Military Intelligence:

Ukraine continues striking strategically important Russian enterprises and military facilities, which has already begun influencing public opinion inside Russia itself. 1/6 According to public opinion polls conducted in Russia in early May, 18% of respondents identified Ukraine’s long-range strikes against strategic targets as the most important event of the week. Another 16% considered developments on the frontline to be the main issue. 2/6

General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces current Ambassador to the UK:

International order is in a stage of disintegration.

International alliances, above all NATO, have lost part of their ability to guarantee the security of their members. 1/15 This is due primarily to technical unpreparedness for the use of force in modern warfare. It is also driven by the political inability of democratic institutions to make unpopular decisions. 2/15

Very important statements by Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov:

Ukraine's strategic goal is to halt the enemy and seize the initiative on the battlefield, inflicting at least 200 casualties on the enemy for every square kilometer of advance. 1/7 In April, 35,203 Russian troops were killed or seriously wounded. In March, the figure stood at 35,351. Every square kilometer of Russian advance is becoming increasingly costly for the enemy. 2/7

Hugely important reporting by Reuters here:

China's armed forces secretly trained about 200 Russian military personnel in China late last year and some have since returned to fight in Ukraine. 1/10 The covert training sessions, which predominantly focused on the use of drones, were outlined in a dual-language Russian-Chinese agreement signed by senior Russian and Chinese officers in Beijing on July 2, 2025. 2/10

Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Chief Kaupo Rosin:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has few good options in Ukraine with his armed forces unable to advance significantly on the battlefield while Western sanctions are chipping ​away at his resources. 1/7 Russia was ‌losing more men than it was recruiting in the fifth year of its full-scale war, and that a general mobilisation would be deeply unpopular and potentially undermine stability. 2/7

Ukraine has carried out a major air raid on Moscow, possibly the largest attack since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Despite Russia’s layered air defenses, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck several targets across the Moscow region.

What is known so far: 1/ Among the targets hit was the Solnechnogorsk petroleum products loading station in the village of Durykino. (Footage in 1st tweet).

Seen here: The Elma technopark in Zelenograd, an enterprise specializing in electronics manufacturing, engulfed in flames. 2/

Estonian Ministry of Defense:

Ukraine has shifted its focus to striking Russia's rear areas in an effort to disrupt its supply chains. 1/6 Ukraine is now capable of striking targets located around 20 kilometers behind Russia's front line nearly 5,000 times per month. This clearly affects both the logistics of Russian units and the support provided to frontline troops. 2/6

Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

The situation is no longer as favorable for Russian forces as it was a year ago. 1/10 First, the Ukrainian Forces have significantly adapted to the tactics Russia employs. Second, Ukrainian forces have increasingly disrupted Russian logistics, primarily through greater battlefield transparency and the ability to conduct strikes deep within operational sectors. 2/

Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces:

The decisive struggle is taking place directly on the battlefield, not deep in the rear, not near Tuapse, and not beyond the Urals.
The advance of Russian infantry is stopped at the line of combat contact. 1/15 The emphasis should shift almost entirely toward targeting personnel. Redirecting even an additional 30% of strikes exclusively toward enemy manpower could produce significant results within a very short period of time. 2/15

General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

Since 2023, significant changes have taken place on the battlefield, giving rise to an entirely new type of warfare shaped by emerging tools and the far-reaching consequences of this transformation. 1/17 At that time, the emergence of new tools such as unmanned systems made the battlefield increasingly transparent, creating a so-called deadlock that made the achievement of operational and strategic objectives extremely difficult. 2/17

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (GUR):

Covert mobilization have never stopped in Russia. The Russian regime faces a constant dilemma: whether it should move toward open, public mobilization measures. 1/13 There is a real decline in the number of people willing to become cannon fodder, even despite the promised perks and financial rewards, the flow of volunteers or mercenaries is also decreasing. 2/13

Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces:

A “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines around the world but says Ukraine will probably deliver a “slap in the face” where Russia’s air defences are weaker. 1/9 “Why waste drones on the ‘great wall’,” he said, referring to the enhanced security around Moscow. "If you hit the energy sector or military that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 2/9

General Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

After Starlink was blocked for Russian forces, the gap between their effectiveness and ours narrowed dramatically, because replacing Starlink as a battlefield communications system is practically impossible. 1/15 The only thing that can replace Starlink is another Starlink. Therefore, Starlink’s influence on the course of the war right now is enormous. Over the past two weeks, the effectiveness of Russian strike operations has significantly deteriorated — by approximately 20–40%. 2/15

Whether this intelligence report is accurate, or whether Putin’s system is nearing collapse, as has occurred at moments in Russian history when military setbacks triggered the breakdown of the existing order, is extremely difficult to predict, especially with open-source. 1/4 However, the gradual overheating of Russia's political system, driven by accumulating pressures across economic, military, and social domains, makes it increasingly fragile. 2/4