Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces:

A “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines around the world but says Ukraine will probably deliver a “slap in the face” where Russia’s air defences are weaker. 1/9 “Why waste drones on the ‘great wall’,” he said, referring to the enhanced security around Moscow. "If you hit the energy sector or military that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 2/9

General Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

After Starlink was blocked for Russian forces, the gap between their effectiveness and ours narrowed dramatically, because replacing Starlink as a battlefield communications system is practically impossible. 1/15 The only thing that can replace Starlink is another Starlink. Therefore, Starlink’s influence on the course of the war right now is enormous. Over the past two weeks, the effectiveness of Russian strike operations has significantly deteriorated — by approximately 20–40%. 2/15

Whether this intelligence report is accurate, or whether Putin’s system is nearing collapse, as has occurred at moments in Russian history when military setbacks triggered the breakdown of the existing order, is extremely difficult to predict, especially with open-source. 1/4 However, the gradual overheating of Russia's political system, driven by accumulating pressures across economic, military, and social domains, makes it increasingly fragile. 2/4

General Vasyl Syrotenko, Chief of Ukraine's Engineer Troops:

Traditional concepts such as the line of contact, deep rear, or safe zone have largely disappeared, as unmanned capabilities now cover all these areas. 1/15 Unmanned systems have fundamentally changed the entire architecture of warfare. As a result, these systems are now one of the main factors shaping combat, delivering strikes, and enabling the execution of a wide range of tasks. 2/15

Pavlo Yelizarov, Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force and founder of the legendary Lasar’s Group:

Ukrainian counteroffensive cannot be ruled out and remains a real possibility. 1/14 If Ukraine improves its efficiency, particularly by increasing the scale of damage inflicted on enemy personnel and equipment, it could generate a cumulative impact on frontline morale. 2/14

Profound insights by Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces:

Today, the exchange rate in tactical combat exceeds 100:1. One dollar invested in drones translates into more than $100 in Russian losses. 1/15 USF spend approximately $40 million per month on drones while inflicting around $4 billion in damage on the enemy — a ratio of roughly 1:100. Over a 10-month period, the cost of eliminating a single Russian infantryman is estimated at about $882. 2/15

General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and current Ambassador to the UK:

Due to scientific and technological progress, it has become impossible, regardless of what others may claim, to carry out operational-level tasks. 1/12 An operational task is not a fight for two houses or even for a small town over the course of a year. Operational execution means achieving large-scale results within a short period of time, advancing 150, 200, even 250 kilometers. 2/12

Very telling remarks from Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's Central Bank Governor:

We have truly never, in the history of modern Russia, lived with such a shortage of labor until now. 1/6 We have never had anything like this before, and it is affecting the entire economic situation as well as our decisions. 2/6

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee:

The key to defeating Russia lies in economic and military exhaustion. 1/6 Russia is already losing about 35,000 soldiers per month, more than the Soviet Union’s total losses during 10 years of war in Afghanistan. 2/6

Interesting remarks by senior Western military leaders on the Russia–Ukraine war at the Kyiv Security Forum:

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee:
Russia has not achieved a quick victory, in fact, no victory at all, and this is important. 1/18 Ukraine has preserved its sovereignty, and this is a powerful example of adaptability. In the West, we are learning a great deal, learning about drones, distributed capabilities, and resilience. 2/18

Important points by General Kyrylo Budanov:

The red line is straightforward and widely understood. First, nothing will be recognized. That will not happen, regardless of any pressure or attempts to force it. 1/10 As for Donbas, a solution will be found that, above all, serves Ukraine’s interests, because it is Ukrainian land, and no one has the right to trade it. No one in Ukraine, I believe, would agree to recognize the loss of even a millimeter of our territory. 2/10

My latest piece for Atlantic Council about Ukraine's drone campaign:

A number of contributing factors have helped make Ukraine’s air offensive notably more effective since the start of 2026. 1/7 Ukrainian attacks on targets deep inside Russia have been aided by a sustained and coordinated campaign to degrade Russia’s air defense network with strikes on individual air defense units and radar systems. 2/7

General Budanov, Chief of Ukrainian Presidential Office:

I am not a fan of the idea that drones will win this war for us. Wars are not won without people. They can be lost without people — that happens. But winning without people is simply not possible. 1/6 The Russians are not complaining about deep strikes. This is a standard approach to conducting negotiations, as doing so would amount to admitting weakness. They will not make it easy for us to reach any agreement. 2/6

Hero of Ukraine Pavlo Rozlach, Deputy Commander of Ukraine's 8th Air Assault Corps:

We have beat the Americans [during exercise]. They are restricted by standards, so it cannot be said that everything “NATO” is automatically good. We are fighting a real, powerful enemy. 1/15 The entire spectrum of weaponry and ammunition has been deployed against us, excluding only nuclear weapons: missiles, aviation, KABs (guided aerial bombs), and the latest technologies. 2/15

Very insightful points by Colonel Janno Märk, Chief of Staff of the Estonian Division:

In a broader sense, the Russia-Ukraine war remains in a state of a static war of attrition, where neither side has achieved a decisive success and is unlikely to do so in the near term. 1/9 However, over the past three to four months, certain positive shifts have emerged on Ukraine’s side.
The recent Ukrainian success is a combination of several factors. 2/9

General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukrainian Presidential Office:

The Middle Eastern crisis, like any crisis, presents both advantages and disadvantages. Much depends on how different actors choose to position themselves. 1/12 On the downside, the impact is already evident, for example in rising fuel prices, which are being felt across the board.
On the upside, however, this creates a window of opportunity, one that can either be utilized or missed. 2/12

Important points by General Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of Zelenskyy's Office:

The ratio of strike drone usage along the frontline currently stands at approximately 1.3 to 1 in our favor, meaning we are deploying around 30% more strike drones than Russia. 1/7 Despite ongoing challenges related to materials, procurement, and contracting, the daily share of fiber-optic drones in our total strike drone usage has reached about 32%, compared to roughly 24% on the Russian side. 2/7

Russia’s GRU operatives have been caught attempting to stage a covert false-flag attack to frame Ukraine and disrupt Hungary’s elections through a bombing campaign. 1/9 If they had succeeded Hungary’s Euro-sceptic government could impose emergency laws to stop forthcoming elections which they could lose to a pro-European party. 2/9

WaPo: Ukrainian forces operating in Libya have attacked a Russian tanker

Ukrainian forces are operating in western Libya under a covert deal endorsed by the West, and they used the country’s territory to strike a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean last month. 1/7 The Russian-flagged Arctic Metagaz, carrying 61,000 tons of liquefied natural gas, was badly damaged in a suspected sea drone attack near Maltese waters early in March. It has since drifted off Libya. 2/7

Ukraine's Fire Point targets 'game changer' air defense system by 2027:

Fire Point, is in talks with European companies to launch a new air defence system by next year, creating a low-cost alternative to the increasingly hard-to-get ​Patriot system. 1/5 With governments seeking to defend their skies as the wars in Ukraine and Iran sow global instability, Fire Point's co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilierman said it aimed to slash the cost of intercepting ‌a ballistic missile to below $1 million. 2/5

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service:

A systemic deterioration of data center infrastructure is unfolding in Russia. 1/9 Aging equipment is failing at scale, while sanctions and the financial burden of the war against Ukraine have significantly reduced the country’s ability to replace it quickly and effectively. 2/9