Political Analyst • Former Senior Advisor to @NSCofGeorgia • Focused on Russian Security and Foreign Policy • Views my own
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A thirty-day ceasefire has made it possible to reconcile views and agree on a process that allows for the establishment of trust. 2/4
The conversation began with a clear reaffirmation that Ukraine will never recognize occupation. Not a single piece of Ukrainian land occupied by Russia since 2014 will ever be recognized as part of the Russian Federation. 2/12
And still, Ukraine fights—it’s some kind of miracle—against the Axis of Evil. 
The timely appearance of drones and their increasing role in combat effectiveness—now responsible for over 50% of confirmed kills, even by conservative estimates—has made commanders highly dependent on them. 2/14
Formal conditions for the revision of the world order are clear, and the reference point for this is the potential end of the war in Ukraine. The world order is now ruined; Look at the U.S., the White House has questioned the unity of the Western world. 2/13
Ukraine has the right to peace and security for itself, and it is in our interest and in the interest of the security of the European continent. It is in this sense that we are working with our British, German and several other European friends. 2/5
We are conducting active defense, particularly in sectors where the enemy has a numerical advantage, such as the Pokrovsk area, where Russian forces have outnumbered us 4.5 to 1. Notably, Russia expended more resources in 2024 than the previous two years (2022-2023) combined. 2/
The key shift after the full-scale invasion was Russia's initial belief that they could quickly seize all of Ukraine's territory. However, once fighting began and they encountered resistance, their plans began to adjust. Russia’s objectives are constantly being modified. 2/17
Honestly, I sometimes reflect on how the battle would have unfolded if we had then the technologies, forces, and resources that we have now. 2/14
Russia, without Ukraine and Belarus, which it has nearly occupied, is no longer an empire. We are aware of the future plans, and we know about them at least until 2030. 2/8
I think, this objective will never change. 
I think, this objective will never change. 
While this may not have been explicitly stated by the Kremlin, pro-government media and state-affiliated analysts are pushing this message in real time, reinforcing the official propaganda line. 2/10
While this may not have been explicitly stated by the Kremlin, pro-government media and state-affiliated analysts are pushing this message in real time, reinforcing the official propaganda line. 2/10
There were two key events that changed the course of Russia’s operation. The first was in Hostomel. This thwarted their plan. Why was this 'three plus ten' strategy—'Kyiv in three days'—conceived? 2/8
Another reason is its lack of sufficient strength, and the second is the immense financial burden it faces.
These assessments were based on information from agents operating within Ukraine, leading to the expenditure of vast sums of money. Consequently, Russia's analysts drew flawed and irrational conclusions. 2/14
Of course, one of the key factors was our lack of ammunition, weapons, and aviation support. I personally experienced guided aerial bombs (KABs). They are highly demoralizing and played a significant role. The enemy could drop up to 100 KABs on Avdiivka in a single day. 2/19
How long it will last and how effective it will be is another matter. But I believe something will happen, as most of the necessary conditions are in place. 2/6
We also cannot achieve widespread use of weapons like guided air bombs, nor can we effectively defend against them, giving Russia another advantage. 2/8
Budanov estimated that about 4,000 troops had been killed or seriously wounded.