Recruiters and propagandists who previously worked for Russia’s Wagner Group have emerged as a main conduit for Kremlin-organized sabotage attacks in Europe, according to western intelligence officials. 1/9 Wagner recruiters who specialised in persuading young men from Russia’s hinterland to fight in Ukraine have been given a new task — recruiting economically vulnerable Europeans to carry out violence on Nato soil. 2/9

Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Estonian Military Intelligence Chief:

There are no signs that Russia seeks peace. 1/10 At the political level, Russia continues to maintain rhetoric rejecting Western security guarantees for Ukraine and persists in its aim to annex what it calls “historical Russian lands.” 2/10

Important observations by Oleh Shyriaiev, Commander of Ukraine's 225th Separate Assault Regiment:

Systematically targeting Russian tactical-level commanders and their drone units — disrupting the entire drone operator network — would yield a far greater battlefield impact. 1/9 Eliminating the commander of a Russian field army would not significantly alter the situation on the battlefield. Wars are driven at the tactical level — by battalion and company commanders, by those directly commanding forces on the ground. 2/9

Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov:
In December, Russia suffered record losses — 35,000 troops killed and severely wounded. All of these figures have been verified. Ukraine’s strategic objective is to inflict at least 50,000 confirmed enemy casualties per month. 1/8 Russia cannot win this war on the battlefield, which is why it continues to wage war against the civilian population and critical infrastructure. Today, Russia carried out one of the most massive ballistic attacks against Ukraine, employing more than 20 ballistic missiles. 2/8

General Andriy Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

Peace, in practical terms, means forcing Russia into a strategic stalemate — a dead end in which further advances are either impossible or achievable only at completely unacceptable losses. 1/14 Only then does it make sense for them to sit down at the negotiating table.
if the winter is endured and Russian advances are fully halted in the spring, making it evident that Moscow’s objectives in the Donbas are unattainable, the situation would change fundamentally. 2/14

General Syrskyi’s Key Statements to the Media

The active front line stretches about 1,200 km; the kill zone extends 15–20 km in depth.

Enemy strength is around 712,000 personnel, but casualty levels exceed Russia’s ability to replenish forces. 1/6 Kupiansk: Russian diversionary groups of up to 40–50 fighters remain in the city. Russia is actively using fiber-optic drones at distances of 30 km and beyond.

In Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, measures are underway to improve the tactical positions of Ukrainian forces. 2/6

Putin’s war economy is under real strain:

The Russian economy has entered one of its weakest years in 2026 since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 1/12 Russia’s energy revenues fell by about one-fifth last year compared with 2024. High interest rates and a heavy debt burden are squeezing corporate profitability, pushing up the number of financially distressed firms, while lower oil prices and the absence of meaningful growth are further undermining budget revenues. 2/12

Ukraine’s strategy in 2026 is largely built around holding existing front lines while pursuing a sustained campaign of exhaustion against Russian manpower and the Russian economy. 1/15 As President Zelenskyy and the new Defense Minister Fedorov have stated, Ukraine’s target is to inflict up to 50,000 Russian troop casualties per month. In December 2025, Ukrainian forces eliminated approximately 35,000 Russian soldiers. 2/15

Russia's Strategy in 2026🧵

I believe the Russian strategy is founded on three main pillars: offensive operations, negotiations and terrorizing Ukrainian civilians.

Negotiations: there are several reasons for the Kremlin to engage in peace talks. 1/15 First of all, Moscow intends to evade the imposition of additional sanctions or stricter enforcement by the West, as well as to delay the provision of advanced weaponry, especially long-range capabilities that Ukraine desperately needs. 2/15

Profound insights from Oleh Luhovskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service:

The Kremlin’s top leadership is not prepared for genuine negotiations to end the war and is instead pursuing a strategy of deliberate delay. 1/10 Moscow believes that sustained offensive operations at the front and blackouts in the rear can break Ukraine and force it to accept Russia’s terms.
We distinguish two main areas of assistance from China. 2/10

Putin’s war economy is starting to show cracks.

By the end of 2025, growth in the Russian economy had sharply slowed, approaching stagnation. According to Rosstat, GDP growth over 11 months amounted to just 1%, which, as noted by the Ministry of Economic Development. 1/16 Even within the State Duma, some MPs are sounding the alarm over the condition of the Russian economy and the growing risk of recession. 2/16

Very important remarks by Commander-in-Chief, General Syrskyi:

Russia’s actions provide no indication that preparations are underway for meaningful peace negotiations or a de-escalation on the battlefield. 1/16 There is an increase in the intensity of combat operations, a buildup of offensive groupings, and an expansion of production of strike weapons, including missiles and drones. 2/16

Very interesting points by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba:

The war will not end in 2026; a ceasefire is possible. 1/11 Putin will fight different wars until his last breath, because it suits him as a way to govern the country. He has found his mission, his niche in history. 2/11

Commander-in-Chief General Syrskyi on the current state of war:

Signs of exhaustion are indeed visible. First, there has been a change in the structure of the war, marked by a transition to a much higher technological level. 1/14 It can now be observed that the war has become highly technology-driven, with drones of all types dominating the battlefield. 2/14

An Insightful Assessment by General Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence

Peace Talks:
The territorial question remains the central issue of negotiations, and at this stage it is precisely where no convergence exists. Negotiations are about finding a compromise. 1/14 At one point, someone articulated what I consider a very apt phrase: “A compromise in negotiations is not when one side leaves happy and the other unhappy, but when both sides leave unhappy.” This is a general formula, but it captures the essence. 2/14

Very important remarks by General Budanov, Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence:

According to Russia’s baseline planning, the country was expected to be ready to initiate an attack on European states by 2030. 1/10 These plans have since been revised and accelerated, shortening the timeline to 2027. In practical terms, this assessment primarily concerns the Baltic states. 2/10

Very insightful remarks from Ukraine’s Deputy Chief of Defense Intelligence Vadym Skibitsky:

The threat posed by Russia is not going anywhere. My message to our European partners is simple: remember what happened in Prague and in other countries during the Soviet era. 1/9 This can happen again. Russia is steadily losing its potential, particularly its scientific and technological capacity. Missiles are increasingly failing to function as intended, and their accuracy is deteriorating. 2/9

Very insightful observations by Kyrylo Veres, Hero of Ukraine and Commander of the K-2 Brigade, on drone warfare:

It is expected that within a few months there will be “traffic jams” of ground robotic systems in the better-equipped brigades. 1/15 However, many other brigades will likely not receive such systems for another three years, which is regrettable. 2/15

Andriy Biletskyi, Commander of the Third Army Corps, on Ukraine’s Military Outlook for 2026:

Regardless of whether the war continues or the country enters a period of ceasefire, the Ukrainian army must change, and it must do so immediately. 1/16 In Ukraine, there is an illusion that increasing the size of the armed forces automatically equals “coffee in Crimea.” This is not the case. 2/16

Very interesting remarks from Deputy commander of Ukraine's HATRED reconnaissance battalion:

The war evolves roughly every six months. At the moment, it is entering a new era — the widespread introduction of artificial intelligence. 1/11 Half a year ago, the dominant trend involved FPV drones, heavy bombers, “vampires,” and the broad use of uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs), combat modules, and kamikaze systems. In parallel, electronic warfare and signals intelligence capabilities have been expanding rapidly. 2/11

A must-read assessment of the current state of the war by General Hennadiy Shapovalov, Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine:

Modern warfare is defined by constant adaptation. 1/15 The most difficult challenge has been the need for continuous adjustment to changes in both enemy and friendly tactics, as success now depends on the ability to evolve faster than the opponent. 2/15