General Budanov:

The people at the top in Russia are far from stupid. They live in a world of numbers, graphs, economic forecasts, geopolitical projections, and so on.

And all of those forecasts are looking increasingly grim for them, leaving little room for optimism. 1/11 Society is what it is. Society lives through the television reality created for it by this ruling elite. People still believe in the power of the Russian Federation, that it will eventually achieve something, that with just a little more time it will make a breakthrough. 2/11

Estonian Military Intelligence:

Ukraine continues striking strategically important Russian enterprises and military facilities, which has already begun influencing public opinion inside Russia itself. 1/6 According to public opinion polls conducted in Russia in early May, 18% of respondents identified Ukraine’s long-range strikes against strategic targets as the most important event of the week. Another 16% considered developments on the frontline to be the main issue. 2/6

General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces current Ambassador to the UK:

International order is in a stage of disintegration.

International alliances, above all NATO, have lost part of their ability to guarantee the security of their members. 1/15 This is due primarily to technical unpreparedness for the use of force in modern warfare. It is also driven by the political inability of democratic institutions to make unpopular decisions. 2/15

Very important statements by Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov:

Ukraine's strategic goal is to halt the enemy and seize the initiative on the battlefield, inflicting at least 200 casualties on the enemy for every square kilometer of advance. 1/7 In April, 35,203 Russian troops were killed or seriously wounded. In March, the figure stood at 35,351. Every square kilometer of Russian advance is becoming increasingly costly for the enemy. 2/7

Hugely important reporting by Reuters here:

China's armed forces secretly trained about 200 Russian military personnel in China late last year and some have since returned to fight in Ukraine. 1/10 The covert training sessions, which predominantly focused on the use of drones, were outlined in a dual-language Russian-Chinese agreement signed by senior Russian and Chinese officers in Beijing on July 2, 2025. 2/10

Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Chief Kaupo Rosin:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has few good options in Ukraine with his armed forces unable to advance significantly on the battlefield while Western sanctions are chipping ​away at his resources. 1/7 Russia was ‌losing more men than it was recruiting in the fifth year of its full-scale war, and that a general mobilisation would be deeply unpopular and potentially undermine stability. 2/7

Ukraine has carried out a major air raid on Moscow, possibly the largest attack since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Despite Russia’s layered air defenses, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck several targets across the Moscow region.

What is known so far: 1/ Among the targets hit was the Solnechnogorsk petroleum products loading station in the village of Durykino. (Footage in 1st tweet).

Seen here: The Elma technopark in Zelenograd, an enterprise specializing in electronics manufacturing, engulfed in flames. 2/

Estonian Ministry of Defense:

Ukraine has shifted its focus to striking Russia's rear areas in an effort to disrupt its supply chains. 1/6 Ukraine is now capable of striking targets located around 20 kilometers behind Russia's front line nearly 5,000 times per month. This clearly affects both the logistics of Russian units and the support provided to frontline troops. 2/6

Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

The situation is no longer as favorable for Russian forces as it was a year ago. 1/10 First, the Ukrainian Forces have significantly adapted to the tactics Russia employs. Second, Ukrainian forces have increasingly disrupted Russian logistics, primarily through greater battlefield transparency and the ability to conduct strikes deep within operational sectors. 2/

Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces:

The decisive struggle is taking place directly on the battlefield, not deep in the rear, not near Tuapse, and not beyond the Urals.
The advance of Russian infantry is stopped at the line of combat contact. 1/15 The emphasis should shift almost entirely toward targeting personnel. Redirecting even an additional 30% of strikes exclusively toward enemy manpower could produce significant results within a very short period of time. 2/15

General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

Since 2023, significant changes have taken place on the battlefield, giving rise to an entirely new type of warfare shaped by emerging tools and the far-reaching consequences of this transformation. 1/17 At that time, the emergence of new tools such as unmanned systems made the battlefield increasingly transparent, creating a so-called deadlock that made the achievement of operational and strategic objectives extremely difficult. 2/17

Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (GUR):

Covert mobilization have never stopped in Russia. The Russian regime faces a constant dilemma: whether it should move toward open, public mobilization measures. 1/13 There is a real decline in the number of people willing to become cannon fodder, even despite the promised perks and financial rewards, the flow of volunteers or mercenaries is also decreasing. 2/13

Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces:

A “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines around the world but says Ukraine will probably deliver a “slap in the face” where Russia’s air defences are weaker. 1/9 “Why waste drones on the ‘great wall’,” he said, referring to the enhanced security around Moscow. "If you hit the energy sector or military that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 2/9

General Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:

After Starlink was blocked for Russian forces, the gap between their effectiveness and ours narrowed dramatically, because replacing Starlink as a battlefield communications system is practically impossible. 1/15 The only thing that can replace Starlink is another Starlink. Therefore, Starlink’s influence on the course of the war right now is enormous. Over the past two weeks, the effectiveness of Russian strike operations has significantly deteriorated — by approximately 20–40%. 2/15

Whether this intelligence report is accurate, or whether Putin’s system is nearing collapse, as has occurred at moments in Russian history when military setbacks triggered the breakdown of the existing order, is extremely difficult to predict, especially with open-source. 1/4 However, the gradual overheating of Russia's political system, driven by accumulating pressures across economic, military, and social domains, makes it increasingly fragile. 2/4

General Vasyl Syrotenko, Chief of Ukraine's Engineer Troops:

Traditional concepts such as the line of contact, deep rear, or safe zone have largely disappeared, as unmanned capabilities now cover all these areas. 1/15 Unmanned systems have fundamentally changed the entire architecture of warfare. As a result, these systems are now one of the main factors shaping combat, delivering strikes, and enabling the execution of a wide range of tasks. 2/15

Pavlo Yelizarov, Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force and founder of the legendary Lasar’s Group:

Ukrainian counteroffensive cannot be ruled out and remains a real possibility. 1/14 If Ukraine improves its efficiency, particularly by increasing the scale of damage inflicted on enemy personnel and equipment, it could generate a cumulative impact on frontline morale. 2/14

Profound insights by Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces:

Today, the exchange rate in tactical combat exceeds 100:1. One dollar invested in drones translates into more than $100 in Russian losses. 1/15 USF spend approximately $40 million per month on drones while inflicting around $4 billion in damage on the enemy — a ratio of roughly 1:100. Over a 10-month period, the cost of eliminating a single Russian infantryman is estimated at about $882. 2/15

General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and current Ambassador to the UK:

Due to scientific and technological progress, it has become impossible, regardless of what others may claim, to carry out operational-level tasks. 1/12 An operational task is not a fight for two houses or even for a small town over the course of a year. Operational execution means achieving large-scale results within a short period of time, advancing 150, 200, even 250 kilometers. 2/12

Very telling remarks from Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's Central Bank Governor:

We have truly never, in the history of modern Russia, lived with such a shortage of labor until now. 1/6 We have never had anything like this before, and it is affecting the entire economic situation as well as our decisions. 2/6

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee:

The key to defeating Russia lies in economic and military exhaustion. 1/6 Russia is already losing about 35,000 soldiers per month, more than the Soviet Union’s total losses during 10 years of war in Afghanistan. 2/6