Political Analyst • Former Senior Advisor to @NSCofGeorgia • Focused on Russian Security and Foreign Policy • Views my own
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Recently, even at the command level of the Ground Forces, it has become clear that smaller training centers can often be more effective than traditional large institutions. 2/14
The cession of territories is not even up for discussion. The territories once governed from Kyiv became part of Russia following the expression of will by citizens, in accordance with international law, the laws of the Russian Federation, and the legislation of these regions. 2/
If we set targets perhaps for 2025, Ukraine definitely needs to stabilize the front line. Secondly, it needs to build up its forces and capabilities, particularly through the development of its own defense industry and capacities, something they have already demonstrated. 2/13
With its new attack in Kursk Oblast, Ukraine has demonstrated Russia's inability to recapture the region. 2/13
Furthermore, the limited data that is published shows substantial discrepancies when compared with other publicly available official sources. 2/16
We are winning the drone war. However, the Russians have begun widespread use of fiber-optic drones. This poses a significant problem for us because electronic warfare (EW) systems cannot stop them, particularly when it comes to the use of FPV drones. 2/8
Even in the absolute rear — over Myrhorod in the Poltava region, 150 kilometers from the border. In Myrhorod, a Russian "Orlan" spied and later adjusted a missile strike on a military airfield in July 2024. 2/35
During mechanized assaults, the survival rate may be slightly higher.
To put it simply, we are receiving only half the artillery munitions needed due to various factors. Consequently, this shortage is reflected in the current state of certain sectors of the front, where we are experiencing a deficit in specific types of artillery munitions. 2/22
to recruit more troops to offset Russia’s losses on the front line in Ukraine. Putin dismissed the idea, saying he wanted to use only those who were voluntarily signing military contracts. 2/7
Russia will need to conduct another round of mobilization. This, in turn, could undermine the country's social and political stability. 2/14
In July, Moscow de facto acknowledged a 30% reduction in the rate of new military recruitment. By the end of the month, Vladimir Putin increased war-related payments, with compensation rising by 400% in the poorest regions. 2/11
Syrskiy had evidently drawn conclusions from Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive during the summer of 2023, when Ukraine consulted with the U.S. and other Western partners, deployed newly formed brigades and telegraphed its plans with videos and public comments. 2/10
Russians are aware of this and is therefore focusing its main efforts on the Pokrovsk area, where its most combat-ready units are concentrated. 2/7
Russians are aware of this and is therefore focusing its main efforts on the Pokrovsk area, where its most combat-ready units are concentrated. 2/7
Around 300 Russian conscripts either died or were captured in Kursk Oblast. On August 24, Russia and Ukraine carried out a prisoner exchange in a "115 for 115" format. According to Russian ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova, all of the Russian prisoners exchanged were conscripts. 2/8
I am very positive about how the operation in Kursk is going. Although the operation is complex, it's crucial that it is proceeding according to our plan. 2/7
We will have to fight for a long time, and it will take even longer to bring Russian criminals to justice. But the SSO are good at planning in the time so that it will be enough for many good deeds. 2/21
- Conscripts from Siberia are being prepared for deployment to Kursk Oblast. This was reported to the editorial board of Sibir.Realii by relatives of soldiers from Kemerovo and Irkutsk Oblasts. 2/7
Putin appears to have ordered the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast without redeploying troops from key areas where Russia is currently focused on offensive operations, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions. 2/14