Thread by @AuroraGroove

Did Russian incompetence blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
A🧵1/x

Methane under pressure will react with moisture to form hydrates, crystalline solids that look like snow or ice. ❄️❄️❄️

If not managed properly, these hydrates will form hydrate plugs that can block a pipeline.

2/ One way of preserving unused pipelines is to fill them with inert gas.

Nord Stream was still filled with Methane under high pressure.

Hydrate plugs are even more likely to form in pipelines with no flow, like Nord Stream before the explosions. ❄️❄️❄️

3/ The way to remove hydrate plugs is to _very_ slowly lower the pressure on _both_ sides of the blockage over a periode of several weeks or months to allow the hydrate plugs to melt safely. (See case study).

4/ If the pressure is lowered on only one end of the pipeline, the plug will melt radially until it is suddenly dislodge and is propelled down the pipeline at speeds up to 300 km/h (measured on short distances, Nord Stream is long), until it reaches a bend or a valve.

5/ When the hydrate plug hits a bend, it will rupture through the pipeline wall and explosively release the pressure inside the pipeline. 💥

6/ Seismic data indicate underwater explosions at the locations of the leaks.

According to Björn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network: "Preliminary estimates would say that this is at least equivalent to 100 kilograms of dynamite". 💣
npr.org/2022/09/27/112…

7/ A seismologist will give an equivalent explosion force in dynamite (TNT) but is neither an explosives expert nor a gas pipeline expert and is unlikely to think of the pressure wave cause by an explosive pipeline rupture. 💥💥💥

The pipeline images suggests an outward rupture:

8/ Nord Stream operates at 3600 PSI and is destroyed over a length of 250m. That is a lot of pressure released very quickly!

A 3600 PSI pressure wave is the equivalent of a more than 100 Kg TNT blast wave. (100*33.4 PSI).

This is indistinguishable from a bomb explosion. 💥💣💥

9/ Journalists and media covering the story are even less likely to make the link to hydrate plugs and explosive pipeline ruptures. After all, an expert has already mentioned 100 Kg of TNT and state sabotage and terrorism is a much more sensational story that sells newspapers.

10/ So why were there two explosions 17 hours apart?

If Gazprom did maintenance on the pipes or try to dislodge hydrate plugs by lowering the pressure on their side on both NS's simultaneously, relatively close catastrophic failures would make sense as the pipelines are similar.

11/ If Gazprom was ordered to ensure Nord Stream remained operational in case 🇪🇺 needed gas during the winter, they might ignore safety procedures and not wait 6 months for ❄️plugs to melt. Telling Putin "no" tends to be a risky business in Russia...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspiciou…

12/ Does all of the above mean we can blame Russian incompetence with certainty? No, but it is a missing scenario in the current media and political discussion surrounding the Nord Stream pipeline explosions and is worth exploring further.

#NordStream #NordstreamSabotage

@ThreadReaderApp please unroll

13/ There are many reports on the amounts of explosives needed for the explosions. The largest explosion hit 2.3 on the Richter scale.

This Richter Tons of TNT Explosion Table & Calculator gives the amount needed at merely 42.5 Kg, not 100's of Kg.

mymathtables.com/calculator/wea…