Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Mar 12, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Things are changing on Ukraine. You can detect it in these *major* policy shifts that are framed as no big deal parentheticals. 

“The U.S. has been clear with Kyiv that it cannot fund Ukraine indefinitely at this level.” 1/

politico.com/news/2023/03/1…
The notion that that isn’t a huge policy statement beggars belief. The Administration and same page Congressional public messaging has been the opposite - that the very high level of support will be there in perpetuity. 2/
Obviously the support isn’t sustainable, as some have been pointing out for some time.

Now it’s clear Administration officials are using friendly press to normalize that message. 3/
“Though backing Ukraine has largely been a bipartisan effort, a small but growing number of GOPs have begun to voice skepticism about the use of American treasure to support Kyiv without an end in sight to a distant war.”

According to this article, those Rs were right! 4/
“For now, Biden continued to stick to his refrain that the United States will leave all decisions about war and peace to Zelenskky. But whispers have begun across Washington as to how tenable that will be as the war grinds on — and another presidential election looms.” 5/

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More from @ElbridgeColby

Apr 25
Prudent:

"According to Pistorius, Russia is producing weapons and ammo beyond the needs for the offensive war against Ukraine...with increasing military spending and a war economy, “a large part of newly produced no longer goes to the front lines but ends up in the depots." 1/
"He also warns of further military ambitions from Putin. Pistorius remarked, “One could be naive and say he is doing this out of caution. I, as a more skeptical person, would say in this case, he is doing this because he might have something in mind.” 2/
"Earlier it was reported that Russia’s defense industry significantly increased its production output in 2023. This expansion included growing the workforce to approximately 3.5 million people, implementing increased shift patterns, expanding existing production lines, and bringing idle production capacity back into service." 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 25
Malcom Kyeyune goes a lot farther than I would here, but there's a lot to chew on.

The disconnect between the power centers and the foot soldiery of society just seems yawning - and the elite doesn't seem to be trying to grapple with why. 1/

unherd.com/2024/04/why-th…
"Ordinary American voters are no doubt starting to feel what the put-upon Romans did: the empire is no longer working for them." 2/
"Previously, such measures would have been justified with bromides about freedom and democracy, but such rhetoric no longer commands the same authority." 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 24
Former CSAF Goldfein said. “And while these missions have been growing, our Air Force has been getting smaller. ... We’re actually the smallest Air Force we’ve ever been.”

Since then, it has shrunk further and is now on track to get smaller still.” 1/

defensenews.com/air/2024/04/23…
“The fleet already totals less than one-fifth of its size during its fiscal 1956 peak, when the service had 26,104 aircraft.” 2/
“@ToddHarrisonDC said that while modern aircraft do offer more speed, range, stealth and other advantages over previous generations of technology, “the reality is that one plane can only be in one place at a time.” 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 14
I consider @RepGallagher and Matt Pottinger to be good friends. Each has a distinguished record of service to the country, above all on China. I agree with them about a great deal.

But I fundamentally disagree with their core argument here.

Why? 1/

foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
BLUF:

1) We do not need their goal of full regime change and liberalization in China to achieve core American national interests vis a vis China.

2) Pursuing that goal against China greatly raises the risks of cataclysmic war, which we must try to avoid. 2/
As to 1, Americans can sustain their security, freedom, and prosperity so long as there is a balance of power with China. This requires a favorable balance of power in Asia.

With this, we can negotiate the terms of China's continued growth from a position of strength. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Apr 12
“RUSSIA’S REBUILDING FAST: Russia has replaced its heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine faster than anticipated, the top U.S. commander in Europe and NATO warned lawmakers today.” 1/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
“The overall message I would give you is [Russia’s military has] grown back to what they were before,” Cavoli said. “They’ve got some gaps that have been produced by this war, but their overall capacity is very significant still, and they intend to make it go higher.” 2/
“In a written statement, Cavoli also sounded the alarm that Russia’s army has even more manpower than when it launched its full invasion in February 2022. Moscow has also boosted its frontline troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000 soldiers, he noted.” 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 11
It has been an exceptional privilege to visit Taiwan and meet with leaders from across the spectrum.

My message here is the same: Taiwan is key but the situation is dire. Taiwan must show its grave determination to defend itself to persuade Americans to come to its defense. 1/


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My view is that true friends are direct and honest when a friend is in dire straits. That’s my approach here.

Americans are war-weary and more skeptical of military interventions. Taiwan matters a great deal to Americans. But it’s not existential and it’s remote to most. 2/
In this context, it’s key to make a U.S. defense of Taiwan feasible and tolerable (God forbid it be needed). Taiwan dramatically and visibly building up its defenses and resilience is key for doing that.

In brief: America is more likely to help those who help themselves. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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