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Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
@hkeskiva
Mar 12, 2023 • 36 tweets • 23 min read • Read on X
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1/🧵

It’s clear by now what has happened to Silicon Valley Bank.

Since it's the other regional banks we're now worried about, I'll keep adding them here one by one to keep myself and anyone interested informed.
2/🧵

This thread explains wonderfully how Silicon Valley Bank $SVIB was "mark-to-market insolvent" already in 3Q22.

Let’s apply this same approach of comparing "held-to-maturity losses" to "tangible common equity" to as many other banks as possible.

3/🧵

Disclaimer before we start:

these data points aren’t all that matter. There's plenty of other important angles to cover (like hedges, deposit base etc.), but we'll start with these.

They'll help us understand where we are and where potential risks may lie.

Let's begin...
4/🧵

Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $15,160 mln
/ Tangible common equity $11,880 mln
= HTM losses of equity 128%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000719739… ImageImage
5/🧵

Charles Schwab $SCHW
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $15,580 mln
/ Tangible common equity $17,439 mln
= HTM losses of equity 89%

content.schwab.com/web/retail/pub… ImageImage
6/🧵

First Republic Bank $FRC
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $4,839 mln
/ Tangible common equity $13,595 mln
= HTM losses of equity 36%

ir.firstrepublic.com/static-files/8… ImageImage
7/🧵

Signature Bank $SBNY
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $765 mln
/ Tangible common equity $7,409 mln
= HTM losses of equity 4%

s1.q4cdn.com/665033567/file… ImageImage
8/🧵

PacWest Bancorp $PACW
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $159 mln
/ Tangible common equity $2,124 mln
= HTM losses of equity 7%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001102112… ImageImage
9/🧵

Customers Bancorp $CUBI
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $46 mln
/ Tangible common equity $1,399 mln
= HTM losses of equity 3%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001488813… ImageImage
10/🧵

Bank of America $BAC
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $108,596 mln
/ Tangible common equity $174,602 mln
= HTM losses of equity 62%

investor.bankofamerica.com/regulatory-and… ImageImage
11/🧵

Zions Bancorporation $ZION
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $52 mln
/ Tangible common equity $6,313 mln
= HTM losses of equity 1%

s26.q4cdn.com/483754055/file… ImageImage
12/🧵

I will be adding many more banks based on your tips and news flow so make sure to follow @hkeskiva for updates.

Also later on, there will also be crowdsourced Google Sheets to help with some key data points.

Now back to the banks...
13/🧵

State Street $STT
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $6,809 mln
/ Tangible common equity $16,152 mln
= HTM losses of equity 42%

s201.q4cdn.com/681076340/file… ImageImage
14/🧵

KeyCorp $KEY
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $603 mln
/ Tangible common equity $9,777 mln
= HTM losses of equity 6%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000091576… ImageImage
15/🧵

Bank of Hawaii $BOH
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $799 mln
/ Tangible common equity $1,105 mln
= HTM losses of equity 72%

ir.boh.com/static-files/8… ImageImage
16/🧵

Columbia Banking System $COLB
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $18 mln
/ Tangible common equity $929 mln
= HTM losses of equity 2%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001723596… ImageImage
17/🧵

Horizon Bancorp $HBNC
3Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $391 mln
/ Tangible common equity $505 mln
= HTM losses of equity 77%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000706129… ImageImage
18/🧵

Wells Fargo $WFC
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $41,577 mln
/ Tangible common equity $133,527 mln
= HTM losses of equity 31%

www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/abo… ImageImage
19/🧵

All banks listed (and to be listed) are added to this Google Sheet.

You may add banks with details to make the list more comprehensive, thus more useful for you or anyone else interested.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
20/🧵

US Bancorp $USB
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $10,869 mln
/ Tangible common equity $29,771 mln
= HTM losses of equity 37%

ir.usbank.com/static-files/3… ImageImage
21/🧵

Truist Financial $TFC
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $9,922 mln
/ Tangible common equity $23,933 mln
= HTM losses of equity 41%

app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadF… ImageImage
22/🧵

Bank of New York Mellon $BK
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $6,205 mln
/ Tangible common equity $18,017 mln
= HTM losses of equity 34%

otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/bny… ImageImage
23/🧵

JP Morgan Chase $JPM
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $36,762 mln
/ Tangible common equity $214,552 mln
= HTM losses of equity 17%

jpmorganchaseco.gcs-web.com/static-files/5… ImageImage
24/🧵

Glacier Bancorp $GBCI
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $441 mln
/ Tangible common equity $1,816 mln
= HTM losses of equity 24%

gbci.com/static-files/d… ImageImage
25/🧵

Western Alliance $WAL
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $177 mln
/ Tangible common equity $4,383 mln
= HTM losses of equity 4%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001212545… ImageImage
26/🧵

Citigroup $C
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $25,316 mln
/ Tangible common equity $158,151 mln
= HTM losses of equity 16%

citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/st… ImageImage
27/🧵

Bank Ozk $OZK
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $0 mln
/ Tangible common equity $3,687 mln
= HTM losses of equity 0%

ir.ozk.com/static-files/4… Image
28/🧵

Huntington Bancshares $HBAN
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $2,302 mln
/ Tangible common equity $9,839 mln
= HTM losses of equity 23%

ir.huntington.com/regulatory-sec… ImageImage
29/🧵

BankUnited $BKU
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $0 mln
/ Tangible common equity $2,358 mln
= HTM losses of equity 0%

ir.bankunited.com/static-files/c… ImageImage
30/🧵

Metropolitan Bank Holding $MCB
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $73 mln
/ Tangible common equity $576 mln
= HTM losses of equity 13%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001476034… ImageImage
31/🧵

Fifth Third Bancorp $FITB
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $0 mln
/ Tangible common equity $12,017 mln
= HTM losses of equity 0%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000035527… ImageImage
32/🧵

East West Bancorp $EWBC
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $547 mln
/ Tangible common equity $5,309 mln
= HTM losses of equity 10%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001069157… ImageImage
33/🧵

Ally Financial $ALLY
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $178 mln
/ Tangible common equity $14,592 mln
= HTM losses of equity 1%

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000040729… ImageImage
34/🧵

Veritex Holdings $VBTX
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $27 mln
/ Tangible common equity $1,007 mln
= HTM losses of equity 3%

ir.veritexbank.com/static-files/d… ImageImage
35/🧵

Comerica $CMA
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $0 mln
/ Tangible common equity $4,143 mln
= HTM losses of equity 0%

app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadF… ImageImage
36/🧵

Capital One $COF
4Q22

Held-to-maturity unrealized losses $0 mln
/ Tangible common equity $32,835 mln
= HTM losses of equity 0%

ir-capitalone.gcs-web.com/static-files/9… ImageImage

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More from @hkeskiva

Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
Apr 7, 2024
1/🧵

I’ve known Aswath Damodaran is great, but this may well be the most entertaining investment lecture there is.

The whole 45min lecture on the WORST VALUATION MISTAKES AND HOW TO AVOID THEM is worth watching but summarizing best bits in this thread.

🫖
2/🧵

“It takes me 45 mins to get into any topic, so I thought I'd pick something very specific. I thought I'd talk about deferred taxes for 45 mins.

If you think I'm serious, you're sick.”
3/🧵

“Most people who claim to do valuation are not doing valuation. They're doing pricing.

Pick up an equity research report. What do you see? You see a company. You see a multiple. You see comparables. So much of what passes for valuation out there is pricing.”
Read 35 tweets
Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
Feb 24, 2024
1/🧵

Viime kerralla kävimme läpi yhtä kassavirtaan keskittyvää lempitunnuslukuani (OCF/CAPEX).

Ketjun jälkeen mieleen juolahti, että lähestymistapaa voi entisestäänkin parantaa. Se kohtelee nimittäin kasvuyhtiöitä epäreilusti. Katsotaan kansantajuisesti, mistä on kyse.

🫖
2/🧵

Edellinen ketjuni käsitteli siis yrityksen kassavirtaprofiilia ja sitä, kuinka se jakautuu liiketoiminnan ja investointien rahavirtaan.

Mikäli ketju on lukematta niin kannattaa ehdottomasti aloittaa siitä.
3/🧵

Sovelletaan edellisen ketjun esimerkkiä vuoteen 1982. Katsotaan nykyään uskomattoman hyvin menestyneen, mutta tuolloin vasta listautuneen The Home Depot’n lukuja.

Yhtiö oli tuolloin vahvassa yli 70% vuosikasvuvauhdissa ja uusia liikkeitä syntyi liukuhihnalta. Image
Read 20 tweets
Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
Feb 17, 2024
1/🧵

Sijoittaja tarvitsee tietoa. Ammattilaissijoittajien suosima Bloomberg-terminaali saattaa maksaa kuitenkin yli 20 000 euroa vuodessa, mikä tekee siitä aivan liian kalliin useimmille.

Siksi kerään tähän ketjuun kaikille ilmaisia tietolähteitä, joita käytän itsekin.

🫖 Image
2/🧵

Nostetaan ensimmäisenä kotimarkkinoiden @inderes ja heidän kotisivuilta löytyvät yhtiötiedot erityisesti suomalaisista yhtiöistä.

Tuloslaskelmat, kannattavuusluvut, arvostuskertoimet ja paljon muuta. Ohessa tiedot esimerkkinä Nesteelle. inderes.fi/companies/Neste
Image
3/🧵

@KoyfinCharts on yksi parhaista kansainvälisistä, ilmaisista yritystietopalveluista. Helppokäyttöinen ja laaja palvelu sisältää keskeisiä tietoja myös pohjoismaisista yrityksistä, kuten suomalaisesta @valmetir, jonka tuloslaskelman lukuja ohessa.

app.koyfin.com
Image
Read 23 tweets
Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
Feb 3, 2024
1/🧵

Katsotaan tällä kertaa tarkemmin yhtä mieluisimmistani tunnusluvuista, johon en ole törmännyt juurikaan muualla.

Käydään tässä ketjussa läpi, miksi kassavirtojen suhteella on sijoittajalle väliä ja miten se liittyy maailman parhaisiin yhtiöihin.

🫖
2/🧵

Heti kättelyssä tärkeä selventää, että mikään yksittäinen tunnusluku ei kerro sijoituskohteen hyvyyttä tai huonoutta.

Samoin harjoitus on yksinkertaistus ja yksityiskohdilla voi halutessaan kikkailla mielin määrin. Pysyttelemme nyt kuitenkin mahdollisimman helpossa.
3/🧵

Ajatellaan kaksi yhtiötä, joilla molemmilla on sama 100 MEUR vapaa kassavirta. Molemmat yhtiöt arvotetaan viisitoistakertaisesti vapaan kassavirran verran eli molempien hinta 1 500 MEUR.

15 x 100 MEUR = 1 500 MEUR

Molemmat yhtä hyviä, eikö vain?
Read 22 tweets
Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
Nov 19, 2023
1/🧵

The notes from first Damodaran interview got 2+M impressions.

The second episode in “Invest Like the Best” is now out and doesn’t fall short on wisdom from one of the greats.

To save you time, here's key insights from this spectacular 80-min episode.

🫖 Image
2/🧵

@AswathDamodaran appearance was on “Invest Like the Best” by @patrick_oshag. Transcript and audio of this magnificent episode below.

The following notes cover the following topics and more: macro, AI, ZIRP, narratives, ESG...

Now to the notes!
joincolossus.com/episodes/72302…
3/🧵

[MACRO]

"I think there are two prevailing narratives:

- Fed is going to reimpose its power, rates are going to go down, everything is going to go back to the way it was
- mean reversion to the last 10 years"
Read 39 tweets
Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
Oct 29, 2023
1/🧵

It’s a common belief that share buybacks lead to an automatic increase in earnings per share (EPS).

But that’s by no means always true. I’ll tell you why by using Apple $AAPL as an example.

🫖 Image
2/🧵

Let’s start with Apple’s numbers for the last twelve months:

- Net income $95 bln
- Share buybacks $89 bln
- Shares outstanding (diluted, today) 15.775 bln
- Shares outstanding (diluted, year ago) 16.262 bln
3/🧵

So, Apple has basically spent $89 bln to reduce diluted share count by 487 mln shares.

The typical line of thought is that EPS automatically grows since share count is reduced.

Let's confirm this with numbers.
Read 12 tweets

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