The Federal Reserve have announced a new system created to protect banks from collapse in response to SVB and Signature Bank.
They've called it the Bank Term Funding Programme
Let's get this explained simply 👇
A large part of the reason SVB collapsed was because it bought a massive amount of low interest US T-Bills that plummeted in value after interest rate hikes and inflation rendered their return absolutely terrible.
When SVB was forced to raise liquidity they had to sell these bonds at massive losses, accruing heavy losses from those that they sold
The Fed have now created a system by which banks can borrow from the Fed at the one-year overnight index swap (OIS) rate + 0.10% if they can offer collateral
The OIS is usually close to the Fed Funds Rate.
So essentially, banks can borrow emergency liquidity at FFR +0.1%
Collateral will be either mortgage backed securities or US treasury bonds that the bank offers up to the Fed
This aims to stop banks from being forced to sell assets at massive losses because of short term liquidity needs like SVB were
This is very favourable for banks and may make it significantly easier for banks to avoid liquidity crises
Even better for banks, the collateral that banks offer will be taken at par value.
This means that the fed will ignore the price fluctuations in the bonds that have occurred and let banks borrow against them as if they have just been issued
Again, very favourable
To summarise:
1. Banks can now borrow much more easily from the Fed and use illiquid assets as collateral without having to sell them
2. They can do this at a favourable interest rate
3. The Fed will ignore declines in market value of the collateral so banks can borrow more
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1. European Q4 stagnation & less pessimistic consumers in 2023
2. UK GDP & retail sales beat
2. J. Powell hawkish speeches & higher interest rate indication
3. Strong non-farm & JOLTS but rising unemployment
4. Silicon Valley Bank💥
Simple commentary
Before we get in to it, it needs to be clarified that this week was a tale of two narratives.
We started the week becoming more and more confident of faster interest rate hikes, and by the end the second largest US bank failure in history had occurred.
1. Eurozone
Growth stagnated in Q422 with 0.0% GDP reported
0.3% retail sales growth reported in Jan vs 0.6% expected
EU Employment rose 0.3% Q422
PMIs show services expansion but construction contraction
Consumer confidence -19, highest since Feb 22, but still pessimistic