Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

I will post my news update in two parts tonight.

Part 1: Avdiivka.

On March 10th, the Ukrainian General staff reported Russian drones dropping K-51 chloropicrin grenades. There have been many reports of these grenades being used over the past few months, maybe once per month.

"Російські окупанти здійснили скидання аерозольних гранат нелетальної дії типу К-51 в районі Сєверного, Водяного і Невельського."

facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…

These grenades are typically used for riot control, but could point to a willingness to use more deadly chemical weapons in the future. The attached image is for illustrative purposes only.

The Avdiivka area has been heavily shelled and bombed by aviation. The shelling and bombing are moving into the smaller towns and villages and away from the city of Avdiivka itself.

Settlements getting hit include Tonenke, Lastochkyne, Orlivka, Semenivka, and Berdychi (marked white). They are also heavily shelling the roads between these towns and the highways that lead to them.

In addition, they are heavily shelling the Avdiivka Coke Plant and the more general industrial area in the north of the city (marked yellow).

Russia has deployed precision guide bombs called UPAB-1500, similar to the JDAMs recently given to Ukraine. These bombs contain 1010kg warheads, have a range of 50km, and are very accurate.

However, one of these bombs failed and landed in Donetsk recently.

Russia has few of these bombs and used them sparingly over the past year.

North of Avdiivka, during the past week, Russia has captured Vesele (1) and Krasnohorivka (2) and is now assaulting Kamyanka (3). As a result, control of Kamyanka is contested, and now that it is flanked and attacked from the north, it will likely fall—perhaps tonight or tomorrow

The southern part of Avdiivka around Sjeverne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske are all relatively stable.

I do not have news about the area around Marinka, either. There is ongoing fighting in the city and assaults towards Podjeda and Novomykhailivka. Novomykhailivka suffered significant artillery bombardment before a Russian assault several days ago, but the assault failed.

Part 2: Bakhmut

North of Bakhmut, Russians have been making slow but steady progress. They are moving down the E40 highway, which leads north to Slovyansk.

They have captured the highlands south of this highway and north of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. This town is nestled in a valley, as pictured.

This town is likely contested, but it is concerning Russia was able to move through the highlands north of this town so rapidly. They are also getting closer to Minkivka, part of a small agglomeration of settlements that straddle the E40 highway.

Southeast of here, Russia recently captured Dubovo Vasylivka, and they are attacking Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka. However, attacks toward these two towns have all failed.

A bit further south, closer to Bakhmut, Russia is attacking the town of Khromove again without success. But the pressure on this town is intense, and Ukraine must hold it because it shields the supply roads into Bakhmut.

As a result, Ukraine can no longer use main roads, instead relying on farm roads. Unfortunately, these roads are deteriorating from the passage of heavy machinery and the spring mud.

Russia is attacking the northern industrial area of Bakhmut. They have entered this area, but their assaults have been either destroyed or forced to withdraw.

The Bakhmutivka River primarily shields the eastern side of Bakhmut.

The southern side of Bakhmut has had significant fighting and the most movement in the past few days. Russians are steadily moving north through Sadova St and Gogol Street.

This southern portion is the most dynamic area of the Bakhmut defense. It is difficult to analyze what is happening, as Russian and Ukrainian forces constantly move and attack here.

West of Bakhmut, Russia is attacking Ivanivske, toward the T0504 highway, and west in the general direction of Stupochky. The attacks on Ivanivske and the highway have all failed.

The push west across the canal toward Stupochky has yet to determine results. Russia may control the area around the ?? marker.

Generally speaking, the situation around Bakhmut is terrible and deteriorating. Losing the city is disappointing, especially given the resources available for its defense, but it isn’t the end of the world.

However, Ukraine’s constant desire to throw more men into the problem has a real chance to backfire. It is long past time for Ukraine to cut its losses and pull back to a different defensive line.

As fighting intensifies, opportunities to pull out become fewer and increasingly dangerous. Especially when combined with bad weather and deteriorating roads.

There will be a point, and we could already be there, where withdrawal is no longer a reasonable option, and fighting will continue, waiting for a lull in combat.

It will take months for Ukraine to prepare a significant counterattack. It requires substantial training, planning, and preparation. I don’t think Bakhmut can last months.

Furthermore, preparing for a counterattack itself requires a lull in combat, a period where Russia is forced, for whatever reason, to slow its pace of assaults. The break intensity will allow Ukraine to train its forces and prepare for its attack.

We witnessed this last summer leading up to Ukraine’s major offensives in the autumn.

Russia will likely continue its current pressure level for the next 2-3 months, at which point Ukraine could begin preparing for its attack, which could come in 5-7 months—late summer to autumn, in other words.

Can the defense of Bakhmut last that long? I strongly doubt it. It is possible, but I doubt it. And even if Ukraine can defend that long, at what costs? Would it even be worth it?