$WBA pitch:
– Wallgreens Boots Alliance - trades near all-time lows on virtually every metric.
– Fundamentals are expected to inflect in the second half of FY23.
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2/ $WBA pitch (cont.):
– Company’s YOY EPS trajectory is projected to flip from about -31% in the first half, to 29% in the back-half.
– This will be driven by lower COVID headwinds, improvements in WBA’s Healthcare business, the timing of reimbursements, and lower COGS.
3/ $WBA pitch (cont.):
– The company has been transitioning under its new CEO into a multi-channel technology-driven healthcare provider and a one-stop shop for all healthcare needs.
– This is expected to drive longer-term EPS growth in the 13-15% range.
Health and fitness supplements retailer on a cusp of a transformational acquisition likely to double its sales and increase income by 50%+. Currently, trading at just 11x PE. A highly profitable, fast-growing, and well-managed firm.
@alluvialcapital 3/ This is also a "Jokey" bet on the CEO/controlling shareholder to continue executing. Thus far, the CEO has built a strong distribution channel, nine portfolio brands, and a healthy e-commerce presence.
$IDT pitch:
– A founder-led company with an incredibly strong history of value creation.
– Every $1 invested in IDT in 2012 is worth over $35 today.
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2/ $IDT pitch (cont.):
– Owning IDT today gives investors exposure to three high-growth subsidiaries within IDT, a traditional communications business run rating around $100mm in EBITDA, as well as a large net cash balance sheet and management’s capital allocation prowess.
3/ $IDT pitch (cont.):
– The company is leveraging its existing customer relationships to launch new products, services and business lines.
– Two straight quarters of meaningful share repurchase for the first time in years is a very positive signal.
$MGM pitch:
– Casino resort owner/operator.
– Extremely attractive investment – very strong downside protection, line-of-sight to >100% upside, and much greater long-term upside.
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2/ $MGM pitch (cont.):
– Trades at pre-covid levels, despite repurchasing 22% of shares, selling assets at premium valuations, and having the strongest balance sheet ever.
– Robustly cash-flowing domestic casino’s portfolio covers the current market cap fully.
3/ $MGM pitch (cont.):
– 56% stake in SEHK:2282 is worth a further $6 and potentially significantly more given the relaxation of extreme COVID policies that have gutted Macau’s gambling industry over the last 3 years.
$CKHUY pitch:
– A portfolio of infrastructure-like assets at less than 5x P/E and more than 6% dividend yield.
– CKH’s primary businesses today are ports, retail, telecom, infrastructure, and energy.
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2/ $CKHUY pitch (cont.):
– Transitory reasons have caused the stock to go from “discounted” to “severely discounted” since 2017.
– Roughly ~13% of EBIT comes from China/HK, and ~58% from Europe.
3/ $CKHUY pitch (cont.):
– A number of catalysts on the horizon, including IPOs/disposals of assets, buybacks and more active role from the new Chairman.
– If nothing happens, the company is delivering a 6% dividend yield with a 10 year track-record of compounding BV at ~7%.
$KNSL short pitch:
– Excess and surplus (E&S) insurer trading at a remarkable 12x book value and 40x earnings.
– E&S insurance cycle is topping out and will likely start turning down next year.
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2/ $KNSL short pitch (cont.):
– Kinsale has rapidly taken share as standard insurer carriers did not want to participate in E&S area in the aftermath of the GFC and during COVID.
– However, competition and E&S supply are quickly ramping up after years of outsized gains.
3/ $KNSL valuation:
– Trades at 12x BV multiple – roughly six times higher than historical average for P&C business.
– At 3x BV and 16x 2024 earnings, KNSL is worth $100/share.