Thread by @ashleytownshend

The #AUKUS Submarine Rotational Forces-West is the most important near-term contribution to bolstering deterrence in the Western Pacific in the entire AUKUS construct--and one of the most significant US and allied force posture steps in recent years. A short 🧵1/

From 2027, the US and UK will build a rotational force of 4 Virginias & 1 Astute at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia. Assuming US subs come from CONUS -- rather than Guam -- and all 5 subs are present, this would double the number of allied SSNs west of the dateline by 2031 2/

This kind of increase normally takes years. Currently, the US has 6 Virginias and 6 LA-class in Hawaii and 5 LA-class in Guam. Getting Guam from 0-3, then 3-5 subs wasn't easy. As AUS' Virginias come online from 2032, allied SSNs in West Pacific will reach 20 boats. That's big 3/

This SSN posture initiative is also part of the ongoing, seismic shift in the US-Australia alliance flagged at #AUSMIN 2022. It will see AUS play an increasingly pivotal role in supporting and contributing to allied military operations in the region 4/

https://twitter.com/ashleytownshend/status/1600328049483866113?s=46&t=vY8QqhLcNiBtVgYBSQW3Rg

This will change the character and purpose of the US-Australia alliance. As AUS becomes an key element in US war plans, new coordination mechanisms will be needed. AUS will inevitably be implicated in US military ops. But so too will it have greater influence over those ops. 5/5