The chain of arrogant incompetence.
•SVB's Becker is on the Board of the SF Fed
•Mary Daly is President of SF Fed
•Ms. Daly attends FOMC meetings in 2022, non-voter
•SVB stops hedging against higher rates in 2022
•SVB Texas Hedges lower rates
HTF does this happen?
The Fed claims they are going to investigate how SVB failed and the lapse in oversight. They will likely throw FDIC under the bus when they should be perp walking the DEI staffed SF Fed into the bay. And of course we get the bill for this in lower rates from our banks.
#GoWokeGoBroke may or may not have happened at SVB, but it damn sure happened @sffed
Becker: Hi Mary this Becker over at SVB
Mary: Oh hey!
Becker: Our interest rate hedges we put on are expiring, thinking of not renewing or reversing.
Mary: Whatev's. Hope you can make it to our pride event he/him/they/them.
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Headline Macro Notes:
Interest rate expectations pricing in slightly more than 25bps in February and slightly less in March. Translation: 25bps each at the next 2 meetings, pause.
After a brief respite this week all major UST coupon yields are <Fed Funds effective.
Yield curve inversion flattening and 3M/10Y deeper than 100bps.
Zoltan is on the street. It is wwaayyy long with some thought provoking points in the initial 6 pages. Will make Luke Gromen scream plagiarism.
Personal thought/bias: : Medvedev's propaganda thread and Zoltan's latest have too much overlap for coincidence. Either Medvedev's staff got Zoltan early or this is coordinated.
Is what Xi proposed in Saudi Arabia that Zoltan breaks down in the 1st portion possible? Yes. That someone who served in the USN in that region and studies/trades markets for living types that is cause enough for concern.
Treasury Tuesday Notes:
•Wholesale Inventories est +.4%
•FHFA Home Price est -.8%
•S&P Case Shiller
•Dallas Fed Mfg Index est -15👀
🌽Export Inspections
•3M TBill $54B
•6M TBill $45B
•52Wk TBill $34B
•2Yr TNote $42B
Treasury auctioning/refunding $175B today in a thin holiday market. The chart on 2Yr Treasury Futures looks weak this morning. Could be an interesting day.
1/New Year's Fun for $2. I carried a stack of $2's for tips, Thank You's, and remind folks of the 2nd Amendment. Times got tight, I stopped, but recently started again and forgot how much fun you can have for $2 🧵
2/Throw $2 w/the $5 or $10 at the valet stand and usually get "Wow, haven't seen this in years". Shake their hand, say Thank You, remember the 2nd Amendment. They ALWAYS remember me next time.
3/Then there is the younger generation. Tried to use one at Starbucks years ago and was threatened with trying pass off counterfeit money and almost got a visit from DPD. Calmer managerial heads prevailed.
🧵on Twitter conduct. This is an epic forum for finance, market enthusiasts and we have to cultivate and grow it. We have a culture and etiquette, and I am sharing a priceless lesson from last week how you can get more here.
2/Whether you realize it or not there are several people, most widely followed, running money for a living, and are consummate professionals. They are often happy to help.
3/Last week I needed to reach out to two of the best and both were most generous with their time. They are the finest of gentleman, but it takes a while to grow relationships to ask the questions I did.