Michael A Osborne Profile picture
Mar 15 17 tweets 6 min read
My views on covid seem to have become a bit, well—radical. Please allow me to explain. I did not start out radical. I am lucky to have a settled, establishment-adjacent, career. Three years ago, on the eve of the pandemic, I trusted the establishment. A headshot of me in a suit and tie standing in front of the A photo of me and Takao Ochi, a Japanese politician and form
I trusted the establishment when it said that there was ~no covid in Oxford in Mar 20. Then our little family all got it. I trusted the establishment when it said that, because we were healthy, we'd be fine. I trusted the establishment when it said kids don't get sick
Our 12 month old developed a fever (40.1 degrees) for three weeks, aside from one day—when, over a few hours, our baby's temperature dropped like a stone, into hypothermia, like that little body was just shutting down. And we still don't know about the long-term consequences.
My wife and I also got very sick. My wife was still very sick as an ambulance was taking me off to A&E, after I had collapsed, shaking. Having no nearby family, we emailed strangers to see if anyone could take our children if we both ended up in hospital. A headshot of me in a hospital bed, wearing a respirator
Luckily, we managed to get by on our own, our health seeming to improve. But then the relapses came—symptoms would return, accompanied by new ones, terrifyingly. I trusted the doctors, who said I would recover—they said it would take days, then said weeks, then said months.
And yet, I wasn't getting better—I was getting sicker. A year after infection, I was more sick than I had ever been, lacking the energy to leave the house. Formerly, I was a competitive marathon runner, but I brought on a bad relapse with a 700m walk.
The only test one doctor gave me was a depression screening (I was not depressed); another doctor said that my heart rate exceeding 200bpm during a short walk must have been due to my Garmin malfunctioning (the doctor didn't even consider the vascular impacts of covid).
I begin to see replies from folk with ME/CFS, folks who had caught a virus, suffered symptoms like mine—and had never recovered. I learned that, before the pandemic, 17-24 million globally suffered from ME/CFS, with lower quality-of-life scores than with end-stage renal disease.
A quarter have severe ME/CFS, which often means they are bed-bound, intolerant of sensory stimulation and dependent on others for care. Recovery is rare.
Worse, the establishment has underfunded ME/CFS research—relative to disease burden, ME/CFS is the NIH's least-funded disease. Treatment is often more harmful than helpful (e.g. the PACE trial), and fewer than a third of medical schools even include ME/CFS in their curriculum.
Why did it take sick strangers on Twitter to teach me about ME/CFS? Why was there no public warning? Twitter also taught me a name for my own illness: #LongCovid. But beyond my personal experiences and other anecdotes—how do I know that Long Covid is a serious problem?
Firstly, the scientific literature has established the biomedical basis of Long Covid—more than 200 horrific symptoms result from impacts on almost all organ systems. About half of those with Long Covid are estimated to have ME/CFS.

Long Covid is BAD.
Secondly, studies have established the alarmingly high prevalence of Long Covid—about one in every hundred people in the UK has been **sick for over two years**. Neither vaccination nor prior infection stop Long Covid,

Long Covid is NOT RARE.
The establishment is failing in:

1. STILL providing no public warning about Long Covid, ME/CFS and related
2. STILL offering zero treatments
3. STILL not promoting low-cost protections—respirators, air purifiers—to help prevent more suffering

How could I NOT become radical?
Today, Mar 15th, is #LongCovidAwarenessDay. Please amplify Long Covid voices.
# References

* 17-24 million globally—me-pedia.org/wiki/Prevalenc…
* low quality-of-life scores—doi.org/10.1371/journa…
* recovery is rare—doi.org/10.1093/occmed…
* ME/CFS underfunded—doi.org/10.3233/wor-20…
* PACE trial—me-pedia.org/wiki/PACE_trial
* medical schools not including ME/CFS in their curriculum—doi.org/10.17226/19012

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Michael A Osborne

Michael A Osborne Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @maosbot

Feb 20
You can't judge a Twitter fiction account by a single tweet any more than you can judge a novel(la) by fifty of its words. You have to read for a while to absorb the voice, the themes, the trajectories. Nonetheless, here's a sampler of tweets from my favourite fiction accounts:
Read 14 tweets
Feb 19
It's Sunday—porridge day! Porridge, my (slightly-sticky) emotional crutch. I'm going to document my porridge with photos, in the hope that you may be able to share in my enjoyment.

- 125g salted butter
- 250g jumbo rolled oats
- 1.75L milk
- 1 tsp salt The ingredients for porridg...
1. *Fry the oats in butter* in a frypan Buttery oats frying in a pan
After about fifteen minutes, the oats are done frying. Golden fried oats in a fry pan
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5
I may be the only person alive holding these three beliefs simultaneously:

3. Covid is actually very bad
2. AI poses a potentially-existential threat
1. Random numbers are a bad idea for computation
My beliefs on random (including pseudo-random) numbers are spelt out in our book: probabilistic-numerics.org/textbooks/
For me, (pseudo-) random numbers are useful only in being unpredictable by humans—hence useful for fairness, cryptography etc
Read 4 tweets
Oct 14, 2022
Most are not OK with eating a raw egg because of the 1 in 20,000 risk of Salmonella—which causes diarrhoea & vomiting.

Most seem OK with getting covid (when triply-vaccinated) despite the **1 in 20** risk of #LongCovid—which causes diarrhoea, vomiting, BRAIN DAMAGE & much more
Scientific evidence of what covid can do to your brain
Read 4 tweets
Jun 30, 2022
What is Probabilistic Numerics (PN)? To illustrate, take one core use case of PN— computing integrals. Most integrals are intractable (life is hard), so we must often integrate numerically. Sadly, numerical integrators are unreliable & computationally expensive.

PN can help! 🧵

F = ∫_{-3}^{3} f(x) dx
f(x) = exp(-(sin 3x)^2 - x^2)

The integrand f(x) here is simple—~20 characters, only atomic functions, can be evaluated in nanoseconds. However—the integral F is intractable! Let's try to calculate F numerically using PN. Image
The central idea of Probabilistic Numerics is to treat a numerical method as a *learning machine*. What about when the numerical method is an integrator? Well, a learning machine

• receives data,

• predicts and then

• takes actions.
Read 18 tweets
Oct 19, 2021
When I got #LongCovid in March 2020, I was 38 and healthy. If you are anything like I was then, it is hard to understand how bad Long Covid is. I think that we all have an instinct to just… look away. But, please, it is important that you look. 1/15
My own low-points: early on, I collapsed, shaking, and was taken to A&E in an ambulance. A year later, I did not have the energy to leave the house. Formerly, I was a marathon runner, but I brought on a bad relapse with a 700m walk. Many people have it much, much, worse. 2/
Long Covid feels like a hex. Your body and brain are wrong, in different ways on different days, unpredictable and unsettling. On the good days, you doubt yourself; on the bad, you doubt everything. The illness is capricious, boundless, wicked. 3/
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!