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Mar 16 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
The transcript of Secretary Austin’s and General Milley’s post Ramstein press conference has been released. There was lots on the Reaper incident, but I’m more interested in the course of the war and a few things stand out. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
First real strategic focus is on Russian equipment shortages. The Russians are having to use stuff from WW2.
General Milley praises Ukrainian defence of Bakhmut. Not much detail and could be more of a way to signal support for the Ukrainian government. Some endorsement for the idea that Russians are suffering great losses there.
They return to Bakhmut later in the press conference. It does seem like they are trying to support the Ukr government position.
What’s coming out today? Basically getting Ukr as much as they will give for a spring/summer offensive. AFV, anti air, ammunition. Sounds like a major operation is being prepared. Later they talk about Ukraine changing the present battlefield dynamic coming up.
Though as you know I’d prefer giving Ukraine better range than forcing them to bash heads with the Russian Army. open.substack.com/pub/phillipspo…
Lots on the strength of the contact group and it’s support for Ukraine. Think this matters. There has been some talk that much of the world supports Russia. That might be true, but they don’t aid Russia. Even China shows hesitation. Ukraine’s friends help, thats a big difference
Overall some pretty consistent messaging. Provide Ukr support on Bakhmut, Contact Group remains committed to Ukraine, help is geared towards preparing for Ukraine coming offensive.
Speaking of Bakhmut, @TheStudyofWar now taking about the possibility of Wagner ‘culminating’ around Bakhmut. This is interesting. ISW was one of the first to break away from the pre Feb 24 consensus of Russian strength.
Here is some of their text and a link. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Worth noting that UK sources are also being extremely damning of Russian strategy and losses at Bakhmut.
As I’ve said, I don’t know if Ukrainian strategy to keep fighting for Bakhmut is the right one, but it is consistent with the way they’ve fought the war. Those saying they defintely should have pulled out make war seem very straightforward. These choices are hard.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 17
Interesting comments by @DefenceHQ which supports the same analysis with @TheStudyofWar came up with yesterday. Russian ability to continue offensive operations seem to be waning for the moment.
ISW even started using the word 'culminate' to describe the Russian offensive on Bakhmut.
In the debate over this campaign one thing is clear, RUssian losses have been extreme. This campaign has taken nothing of political value (which seemed to be what it was about from the Russian point of view) made tiny advances and suffered huge losses.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 11
Well here is by far the clearest articulation of the Ukrainian government's case for continuing to fight at Bakhmut. An interview by @Podolyak_M given to the Italian paper La Stampa, summarized here. kyivpost.com/post/14119
Ukraine has two main goals motivating the Bakhmut campaign, to allow time to prepare for its counteroffensive later (they want time to well prepare their forces) and to continue to wear down Russian forces, which they know Russia is committing.
Podolyak takes aim at a few of the widespread assumptions out there. First, the Russians are not just throwing convicts at Bakhmut, they are increasingly concentrating their trained military personnel there along with the good PMC fighters.
Read 12 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 8
Just sent out my midweek substack update for subscribers. Tried to explain why Ukraine is fighting for Bakhmut, even when their forces are in what looks like a precarious position. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/why-bakhmut-…
Its all about, I imagine, preparing for what comes after. The Ukrainians dont want this to happen...
Really interesting @TheStudyofWar update on Russian Bakhmut attack. If they take the city, the Russians would have little left to advance onwards. Makes sense for Ukraine to waste Rus power there
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 6
The reporting of what is happening around Bakhmut is all over the place, but overall it’s impressionistic. Different soldiers and officers in different parts of the line experience very different things. Because some of them are quoted, doesn’t mean that the battle is….
definitely going one way or the other. We don’t actually have any reliable data on Ukrainian losses, just lots of impressionistic descriptions.
Here is the first report claiming an actual figure for relative losses around Bakhmut from a western source with intelligence access. 5 to 1 in Ukraine’s figure. If so, that explains why 🇺🇦 wants to keep fighting there. They are wasting Russian fighting power.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 5
Hello All, Just sent out my weekend update on Substack (its free). Its a meditation on how to understand the Battle of Bakhnmut which may or may not be ending. I reached back to the American Revolution and maybe the best US commander, Nathaniel Greene. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-upda…
When Greene first heard about the Battle of Bunker Hill, he exclaimed that he would sell the British another hill at the same cost. It was an incisive way of saying that the territory of Bunker Hill did not matter, its the losses on either side that will determine its importance.
We should use Greene's framework to analyse Bakhmut (as well as Greene's campaigns in the South in 1780-81, though I could not go into those in much detail. I hope you enjoy.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 28
In Florence, mostly work but a few hours to look around, focussed on ecclesiastical architecture, and it’s wonderful of course. However, Palermo imho, is much finer with Monreale, Capella Palatina, it’s Duomo (exterior), La Martorana, San Cataldo, etc…
This is not a knock on Florence but a love note to the churches of Palermo. So if you are thinking of an Italian trip this year, give Palermo a serious look. Plus it will have far fewer tourists in the summer than Florence during a cold February (trust me).
And the food is much less expensive and, dare I say it, better….
Read 7 tweets

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