On March 14, 2023, the US released a statement that an MQ-9 "Reaper" was hit by a Russian SU-27 fighter.
Russia claimed it did not came into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle.
Who is lying?
1/x to xx/End
Statement of the US: (By CNN)
“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9"
In the late afternoon of 14 March the first reports found their way to twitter. (time = CET)
In the article of RT is stated that EUCOM waited almost 12 hours to comment on it.
It's likely this incident happened in the morning of 14 MAR.
Can we proof this?
7/x
Breakdown of the footage.
00.00
Based on the screen compass of the Reaper and the angle of the footage compared to the wing the drone is flying NNE.
The horizon on the left side of the image is lighter than the right side. So this should be sunrise at the East. = morning.
8/x
The footage shows the approach of the SU-27 from behind.
9/x
00.08
The SU-27 releases his fuel when he fly's by on a very short distance.
10/x
00.10
The footage is interfered by this fuel release.
Reaper still flying NNE.
After confirmation by aviation experts: there is not a chance this fuel release was by accident.
This is intentional.
11/x
00.22
New frame, we don't know the time difference between this frame and previous one.
Green = landmass.
Orange = Reaper changed direction and is now flying NW.
Red = SU-27 approaching from behind.
12/x
00.27
The second time an SU-27 flies by while releasing its fuel. Now we know for sure this is intentional.
The drone is directly flying away from the sun based on the water reflection.
13/x
00:28
This time the SU-27 was very close.
14/x
00.35
The images were now completely interrupted. Meaning the fuel was released closer/"better" to damage the Reaper and/or the Su-27 hit the Reaper.
15/x
00.39 - New frame.
One of the propeller blades is curved and broken halfway.
16/x
Between 00.15 and 00.20 you can see that the propeller blades are still in a good shape.
So not only did they intentionally dump fuel on the Reaper. They hit it to...
17/x
00.39.
We see a landmass and the drone is flying SW now, away from the landmass.
It's important to understand that this drone is flying high and has a very good camera. So we can't estimate how fare the drone is flying from the landmass.
It's flying above water but we can recognize the landmass.
19/x
Rough estimation:
20/x
Very rough estimation of the flight path.
We know which directions the drone was flying in for each encounter. And we know how to orientate relative to the mountains, so this is a very rough flight path. (without knowing the distance to the shoreline.)
21/x
And what about the time?
We have a reflection of the sun and we have the island and we know its morning.
Our estimation: between 08.00 and 09.00 local time, morning of 14 March.
22/x
With this estimation we went looking for what news outlets estimated: CNN (Western) and Rybar (Russian) published also an estimation on the location.
The location given by @CNNPolitics seems impossible due to the viewing angle on the ridge.
23/x
Now we can take a closer look at the statements of both parties.
🇷🇺
"The UAV was flying towards the Russian border without an active transponder, in clear violation of the restricted area established for the conduct of the special military operation, the ministry said."
24/x
🇺🇸
“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker.
25/x
So the Russian claim we still need to answer:
"The UAV was flying towards the Russian border without an active transponder, in clear violation of the restricted area established for the conduct of the special military operation, the ministry said"
26/x
Flew the drone in international airspace?
The international airspace is 12 nautical miles (nautical miles) (=22,224 km) from the coastline. Based on the height of the reaper, very good weather conditions and good optics, it was clear that the drone was well beyond 12NM.
27x
So it was in International Airspace.
Regulated by the ICAO[International Civil Aviation Organisation] convention (Chicago)
"Continuing Russian government violation of civil aviation safety procedures threatens the broader credibility of ICAO, the European Commission has warned."
Addendum. Based on some of the FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions) in this thread we elaborate some points.
Crimea is Ukrainian territory.
The occupation of Crimea is in violation of international law. eeas.europa.eu/node/41530_en
40/x
Russia therefore has no rights with regard to the airspace of Crimea. If Ukraine were to give the US the right to use its national airspace over Crimea, then the US has every right to do so.
But in this case it was even an incident in international airspace !
41/x
So there was no "American aggression" because there was no Russian border in the first place and the "airspace restricted for use during the special military operation" is a communication, nothing more.
42/x
-But what about the Russian Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)?-
See previous tweet +
An ADIZ has hardly any international legal basis and is the "choice" of each country in itself.
- Only undisputed territory
- ... 👇
43/x
ADIZ is not “above” international law.
Russia has no legal basis for a interception like this based on it's own "ADIZ" creation.
When it's in international airspace you don't have the right to harass it. And sure not when it lead to it's crash.
This is based on the line of sight, the angle to the mountains and the assumption that Russia would only response so aggressive to a VS/NATO asset when it has the advantage of being close to it's own AOR.
-It's claimed that it's crashed way closer to Turkey than what is visible on your tweet-
The tweet is based on the footage. So you don't see the drone crashing, so it could be flying indeed elsewhere to crash. Last footage shows flying WSW.
The two pilots are now nominated for state awards for their actions while they violated international law by harassing a US (NATO) MQ-9 Reaper leading to it's crash.
Russia is officially motivating aggression against Western assets based on lies.
Please be cautious when sharing information about the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump. A lot of misinformation and disinformation is circulating regarding this incident.
GeoLocations:
Estimated location of the shooter: 40.858273, -79.970548
Estimated location of Trump: 40.857139, -79.970870
Estimated location of casualties: 40.856939, -79.970926
Estimated location of crane that is hit: 40.856831, -79.971197
Estimated location of this sniper detachment: 40.857092, -79.970372
An example of widely spread misinformation:
In this video you DON'T see the snipers engaging. The three shots are assessed to be from the shooter. What does not mean this team hasn't engaged the shooter at a later time, it's only not visible in the video claiming they did.
We asked experts and fact checkers their opinion:
Always focus on what you DO see and DO hear in a video.
Observations:
After the first shot Trump is reaching for his ear. Almost the same time Sniper One (With the tripod) is repositioning/taking cover. Also Sniper Two is taking cover. A sniper will not immediately shoot after repositioning: it takes a few seconds to zoom in, adjust scope etc.
Three shots are heard with the same specific sound, all three assessed to be from the shooter.
Another video (Vid 01) emerged where bystanders identify the threat before he starts shooting. At 0:03 you hear three shots. At 0:07 you hear 5 more shots in a fast pace but with the same sound as the first three. Followed with what is assessed as another different type of gun shot.
At 0:16 a witness is describing the shooter to be turning in their direction.
At 0:19 another single different sound what is also assessed as another different type of gunshot, is heard.
In Vid 02 you hear them also identifying the shooter and the same sequence of shots is heard.
In Vid 03 you see the location of casualties.
In Vid 04 you see that a crane is hit (at 0:16) near the location where casualties where reported.
In Vid 05 you see the Sniper Team is still repositioning a fraction before the next 5 shots are heard. Sniper One is still looking over his rifle to assess threat location.
So these are observations.
We asked experts for their opinion what we see here. And the thread written by @LtTimMcMillan seems to be accurate. (Vid 06)
Opinion:
1. Snipers are tasked for very far engagements. The shooter was 125m away. It is very likely the was not in their area of responsibility.
2. Snipers that are using their scope have a narrow field of view. You see that Sniper One is using his scope, probably screening far away/in depth. When trying to identify the treat he had to look over his scope and reposition his rifle, because the treat is likely way closer than expected.
This also means that its impossible to state that this specific detachment failed just based on the footage.
You need to know and understand how they work, what their area of responsibility was, and what the communication was they got, etc...
Read the whole thread by @LtTimMcMillan:
In times like this its advised to follow accounts like @Shayan86 and other fact checkers.
Other examples:
"Major blue-tick accounts are falsely claiming that "Antifa extremist Mark Violets" was the shooter at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania today, who earlier revealed his plan in a YouTube video. The video shows Italian football fan Marco Violi, who has nothing to do with the shooting."
An X user claiming they got the wrong guy.
and lots of other claims.
Conclusion:
Stick to what you hear, see, and know.
Recognize that you may not possess the knowledge to comprehend everything, and it's more beneficial to identify experts and read/listen to their insights on topics beyond your expertise.
Ultimately, a thorough investigation will be necessary to understand what is as close to the truth as possible.
Be mindful of misinformation and disinformation, particularly in these times. The rise of engagement farming has exacerbated this threat to a significant degree.
Last night, Ukraine conducted one of its largest drone attacks in the history of this war.
According to various reports, Ukraine used up to 80 drones, identified as 'Liutyi' one-way attack long-range unmanned aircraft, to strike different targets in Novorossiysk, Russia (approximately 350km from the nearest frontline) and the refinery in Tuapse, Russia (approximately 450km from the nearest frontline).
During the attack, which lasted for hours, dozens of drones followed sometimes the same trajectory, without being intercepted by Russian Air Defense, to strike targets inside Russia.
The targeting of Novorossiysk is particularly significant from a strategic perspective because this is the harbor where various ships of the Black Sea fleet have withdrawn to after the strikes on Sevastopol.
Thread with all the geolocated footage.
1/X
At night: Russian AD working in Novorossiysk, first explosions reported.
It has come to our attention that our previous investigation thread did not achieve the desired outcome. For this reason, we have conducted further research and wish to clarify some important points:
Although we had intended to demonstrate that the site was not a new mass grave for 180 individuals recently killed by the IDF, as had been insinuated, we underestimated how our initial thread was subsequently used. We did not provide sufficient context, and we now aim to rectify that.
The fact that Palestinians had to bury their loved ones within the hospital complex, in any available space, is a direct consequence of the surrounding and occupation of the hospital by IDF forces. A significant number of the deaths are also the result of the ongoing conflict.
We want to emphasize that open-source intelligence (OSINT) cannot fully capture the extent of what occurred on the hospital grounds.
After our initial investigation, additional questions arose, prompting us to delve deeper into this matter.
Our first thread:
Our temporary update:
We have been able to geolocate dozens of videos.
To make this information more accessible and easier to follow, we have named the three cemeteries based on their respective locations:
Cemetery South
This cemetery is located south of the road, under the palm trees.
Cemetery North
This cemetery is situated north of the road.
Cemetery East
This cemetery is located in the corner of the area.
By naming the cemeteries according to their geographic locations, we aim to provide a more organised and readable presentation of the findings. This approach eliminates the need to include geolocation proof for every individual video, making the information more concise and easier to comprehend.
We will publish our findings in a timely manner to encourage further thought, discussions and investigations on these matters.
This will be a long thread.
The translations were done by using Google translate and Google image translator.
Special thanks to @MiddleEastBuka, @TwistyCB and @GeoRaccoon for their work. Thanks to specific people from outside the GeoConfirmed network for the advice given.
[Every blue pin is a geolocated video between 22 January and now]
One of the earliest reports we found described the dire situation faced by Palestinians during the ongoing siege, where they were forced to bury their dead inside hospital grounds due to the siege of the hospital by IDF.
Source:
"A number of martyrs were buried within the walls of Nasser Hospital due to the occupation’s siege of the hospital, and the martyrs’ families were unable to bury them in the cemeteries."
Palestinians are exhuming bodies from the grounds of the Nasser Medical Complex hospital complex in Khan Younis, Gaza.
This is occurring at the same location where mass graves were dug and burial ceremonies had taken place by Palestinians in recent months. (Proof in this thread)
Footage from Palestinians digging graves/mass graves dated 25 January, 28 January and 03 February while IDF entered the hospital around 15 February.
Quote from
“In the hospital courtyard, civil defence members and paramedics have retrieved 180 bodies buried in this mass grave by the Israeli military." (By Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud)
Conclusion:
This is disinformation by Al Jazeera and others:
This is a known graveyard/mass grave and at least partially dug by Palestinians.
This does not exclude that graves could have been added when the hospital was occupied by Israeli forces.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/21…
25 JAN 2024 - Palestinian burials by Palestinian people in Nasser Hospital. (VID 01)
An estimation of 75 graves (3 rows of 25 graves) are visible on this video at the exact place where they claimed to have found a mass grave made by the Israeli military.
Palestinians are exhuming bodies from the grounds of the Nasser Medical Complex hospital complex in Khan Younis, Gaza.
This is occurring at the same location where mass graves were dug and burial ceremonies had taken place by Palestinians in recent months. (Proof in this thread)
Footage from Palestinians digging graves/mass graves dated 25 January, 28 January and 03 February while IDF entered the hospital around 15 February.
Quote from
“In the hospital courtyard, civil defence members and paramedics have retrieved 180 bodies buried in this mass grave by the Israeli military." (By Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud)
Conclusion:
This is disinformation by Al Jazeera and others:
This is a known graveyard/mass grave and at least partially dug by Palestinians.
This does not exclude that graves could have been added when the hospital was occupied by Israeli forces.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/21…
25 JAN 2024 - Palestinian burials by Palestinian people in Nasser Hospital. (VID 01)
An estimation of 75 graves (3 rows of 25 graves) are visible on this video at the exact place where they claimed to have found a mass grave made by the Israeli military.