On March 14, 2023, the US released a statement that an MQ-9 "Reaper" was hit by a Russian SU-27 fighter.
Russia claimed it did not came into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle.
Who is lying?
1/x to xx/End
Statement of the US: (By CNN)
“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9"
In the late afternoon of 14 March the first reports found their way to twitter. (time = CET)
In the article of RT is stated that EUCOM waited almost 12 hours to comment on it.
It's likely this incident happened in the morning of 14 MAR.
Can we proof this?
7/x
Breakdown of the footage.
00.00
Based on the screen compass of the Reaper and the angle of the footage compared to the wing the drone is flying NNE.
The horizon on the left side of the image is lighter than the right side. So this should be sunrise at the East. = morning.
8/x
The footage shows the approach of the SU-27 from behind.
9/x
00.08
The SU-27 releases his fuel when he fly's by on a very short distance.
10/x
00.10
The footage is interfered by this fuel release.
Reaper still flying NNE.
After confirmation by aviation experts: there is not a chance this fuel release was by accident.
This is intentional.
11/x
00.22
New frame, we don't know the time difference between this frame and previous one.
Green = landmass.
Orange = Reaper changed direction and is now flying NW.
Red = SU-27 approaching from behind.
12/x
00.27
The second time an SU-27 flies by while releasing its fuel. Now we know for sure this is intentional.
The drone is directly flying away from the sun based on the water reflection.
13/x
00:28
This time the SU-27 was very close.
14/x
00.35
The images were now completely interrupted. Meaning the fuel was released closer/"better" to damage the Reaper and/or the Su-27 hit the Reaper.
15/x
00.39 - New frame.
One of the propeller blades is curved and broken halfway.
16/x
Between 00.15 and 00.20 you can see that the propeller blades are still in a good shape.
So not only did they intentionally dump fuel on the Reaper. They hit it to...
17/x
00.39.
We see a landmass and the drone is flying SW now, away from the landmass.
It's important to understand that this drone is flying high and has a very good camera. So we can't estimate how fare the drone is flying from the landmass.
It's flying above water but we can recognize the landmass.
19/x
Rough estimation:
20/x
Very rough estimation of the flight path.
We know which directions the drone was flying in for each encounter. And we know how to orientate relative to the mountains, so this is a very rough flight path. (without knowing the distance to the shoreline.)
21/x
And what about the time?
We have a reflection of the sun and we have the island and we know its morning.
Our estimation: between 08.00 and 09.00 local time, morning of 14 March.
22/x
With this estimation we went looking for what news outlets estimated: CNN (Western) and Rybar (Russian) published also an estimation on the location.
The location given by @CNNPolitics seems impossible due to the viewing angle on the ridge.
23/x
Now we can take a closer look at the statements of both parties.
🇷🇺
"The UAV was flying towards the Russian border without an active transponder, in clear violation of the restricted area established for the conduct of the special military operation, the ministry said."
24/x
🇺🇸
“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker.
25/x
So the Russian claim we still need to answer:
"The UAV was flying towards the Russian border without an active transponder, in clear violation of the restricted area established for the conduct of the special military operation, the ministry said"
26/x
Flew the drone in international airspace?
The international airspace is 12 nautical miles (nautical miles) (=22,224 km) from the coastline. Based on the height of the reaper, very good weather conditions and good optics, it was clear that the drone was well beyond 12NM.
27x
So it was in International Airspace.
Regulated by the ICAO[International Civil Aviation Organisation] convention (Chicago)
"Continuing Russian government violation of civil aviation safety procedures threatens the broader credibility of ICAO, the European Commission has warned."
Addendum. Based on some of the FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions) in this thread we elaborate some points.
Crimea is Ukrainian territory.
The occupation of Crimea is in violation of international law. eeas.europa.eu/node/41530_en
40/x
Russia therefore has no rights with regard to the airspace of Crimea. If Ukraine were to give the US the right to use its national airspace over Crimea, then the US has every right to do so.
But in this case it was even an incident in international airspace !
41/x
So there was no "American aggression" because there was no Russian border in the first place and the "airspace restricted for use during the special military operation" is a communication, nothing more.
42/x
-But what about the Russian Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)?-
See previous tweet +
An ADIZ has hardly any international legal basis and is the "choice" of each country in itself.
- Only undisputed territory
- ... 👇
43/x
ADIZ is not “above” international law.
Russia has no legal basis for a interception like this based on it's own "ADIZ" creation.
When it's in international airspace you don't have the right to harass it. And sure not when it lead to it's crash.
This is based on the line of sight, the angle to the mountains and the assumption that Russia would only response so aggressive to a VS/NATO asset when it has the advantage of being close to it's own AOR.
-It's claimed that it's crashed way closer to Turkey than what is visible on your tweet-
The tweet is based on the footage. So you don't see the drone crashing, so it could be flying indeed elsewhere to crash. Last footage shows flying WSW.
The two pilots are now nominated for state awards for their actions while they violated international law by harassing a US (NATO) MQ-9 Reaper leading to it's crash.
Russia is officially motivating aggression against Western assets based on lies.
It has come to our attention that our previous investigation thread did not achieve the desired outcome. For this reason, we have conducted further research and wish to clarify some important points:
Although we had intended to demonstrate that the site was not a new mass grave for 180 individuals recently killed by the IDF, as had been insinuated, we underestimated how our initial thread was subsequently used. We did not provide sufficient context, and we now aim to rectify that.
The fact that Palestinians had to bury their loved ones within the hospital complex, in any available space, is a direct consequence of the surrounding and occupation of the hospital by IDF forces. A significant number of the deaths are also the result of the ongoing conflict.
We want to emphasize that open-source intelligence (OSINT) cannot fully capture the extent of what occurred on the hospital grounds.
After our initial investigation, additional questions arose, prompting us to delve deeper into this matter.
Our first thread:
Our temporary update:
We have been able to geolocate dozens of videos.
To make this information more accessible and easier to follow, we have named the three cemeteries based on their respective locations:
Cemetery South
This cemetery is located south of the road, under the palm trees.
Cemetery North
This cemetery is situated north of the road.
Cemetery East
This cemetery is located in the corner of the area.
By naming the cemeteries according to their geographic locations, we aim to provide a more organised and readable presentation of the findings. This approach eliminates the need to include geolocation proof for every individual video, making the information more concise and easier to comprehend.
We will publish our findings in a timely manner to encourage further thought, discussions and investigations on these matters.
This will be a long thread.
The translations were done by using Google translate and Google image translator.
Special thanks to @MiddleEastBuka, @TwistyCB and @GeoRaccoon for their work. Thanks to specific people from outside the GeoConfirmed network for the advice given.
[Every blue pin is a geolocated video between 22 January and now]
One of the earliest reports we found described the dire situation faced by Palestinians during the ongoing siege, where they were forced to bury their dead inside hospital grounds due to the siege of the hospital by IDF.
Source:
"A number of martyrs were buried within the walls of Nasser Hospital due to the occupation’s siege of the hospital, and the martyrs’ families were unable to bury them in the cemeteries."
Palestinians are exhuming bodies from the grounds of the Nasser Medical Complex hospital complex in Khan Younis, Gaza.
This is occurring at the same location where mass graves were dug and burial ceremonies had taken place by Palestinians in recent months. (Proof in this thread)
Footage from Palestinians digging graves/mass graves dated 25 January, 28 January and 03 February while IDF entered the hospital around 15 February.
Quote from
“In the hospital courtyard, civil defence members and paramedics have retrieved 180 bodies buried in this mass grave by the Israeli military." (By Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud)
Conclusion:
This is disinformation by Al Jazeera and others:
This is a known graveyard/mass grave and at least partially dug by Palestinians.
This does not exclude that graves could have been added when the hospital was occupied by Israeli forces.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/21…
25 JAN 2024 - Palestinian burials by Palestinian people in Nasser Hospital. (VID 01)
An estimation of 75 graves (3 rows of 25 graves) are visible on this video at the exact place where they claimed to have found a mass grave made by the Israeli military.
Palestinians are exhuming bodies from the grounds of the Nasser Medical Complex hospital complex in Khan Younis, Gaza.
This is occurring at the same location where mass graves were dug and burial ceremonies had taken place by Palestinians in recent months. (Proof in this thread)
Footage from Palestinians digging graves/mass graves dated 25 January, 28 January and 03 February while IDF entered the hospital around 15 February.
Quote from
“In the hospital courtyard, civil defence members and paramedics have retrieved 180 bodies buried in this mass grave by the Israeli military." (By Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud)
Conclusion:
This is disinformation by Al Jazeera and others:
This is a known graveyard/mass grave and at least partially dug by Palestinians.
This does not exclude that graves could have been added when the hospital was occupied by Israeli forces.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/21…
25 JAN 2024 - Palestinian burials by Palestinian people in Nasser Hospital. (VID 01)
An estimation of 75 graves (3 rows of 25 graves) are visible on this video at the exact place where they claimed to have found a mass grave made by the Israeli military.
Last night, Ukraine executed one of its most extensive combined drone strikes in history, according to preliminary reporting: At least 100 drones were involved in the attacks, targeting at least three areas in Russia: Kursk, Engels Airbase, and Morozovsk Airbase. Additionally, there are reports that Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov-on-Don may also have been targeted.
In this thread we will publish the different geolocations.
VID 01:
Air defense working and explosions seen in direction of Morozovsk Air Base.
The spreading of misinformation through insinuations is also a well-known tactic. Questions are posed with insinuations in order to sow confusion because the answer is not known. In this case, the hidden insinuation is that it could be a military staged operation. It is NOT.
In this viral tweet with 750k views, 2500 RT's, ... the author asks 4 questions, we will answer them all based on geolocations: a fact.
The geolocation of the footage below is part of our huge GeoConfirmed 7 October Investigation:
Over 400 different captured 'incidents' have been analyzed, with the majority being geolocated and evaluated in terms of both space and time. There are still hundreds remaining to be processed. In the future we will share our investigation with our audience.
The author asks the following questions:
1) Where are these people fleeing from? 2) Why don't the cars match? 3) Why doesn't the landscape match? 4) Why are there no trees?
In short:
1) Hamas militants are shooting at them. 2) Because the drone video (Drone Vid) was recorded 600 meters further than the video of the fleeing civilians. (Vid 01) 3) Because (Vid 01) is recorded 600m away from the road. And even on google maps some very big fields are visible in the area. 4) Because (Vid 01) is taken in a big field.
Of course, in the following thread, we will provide a detailed explanation so that everyone can understand how we were able to answer the questions.
1/x
Firstly, we searched for the original videos in our database. We will list them below along with the source. The videos are named "Drone vid" and "Vid 01"
Drone vid:
Footage taken from the entrance towards the festival on the 232 road, filming north.