Suyi控 Profile picture
Mar 17, 2023 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
A T-80U thread. Russia inherited 600~700 T-80Us from the Soviet Army in 1991. According to SIPRI some 125 were exported to Cyprus and South Korea (among which 74 were exported before 2000). No recorded battle losses before Feb 2022.
The "T-80U" in this thread refers to the original T-80U, the T-80UD and the T-80UE-1.
The T-80Us were firstly introduced to the 4th Guards Tank Division in late 1980s and later the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division in early 1990s. Both divisions were very active during the 1991 Coup Attempt and the 1993 Constitutional Crisis.
As of Jan 1, 2000, some 495 T-80Us remained in service in the 2nd GMRD and the 4th GTD, Moscow MD. Some may serves in the Far Eastern MD but I can't confirm. The 2nd GMRD transfered its T-80Us assumedly to the 3rd MRD after the arrival of T-90As since 2005.
The Russian Military Reform started in 2008 and the introduction of T-72B3 series also saw a rapid shrink of T-80U numbers from the Russian Order of Battle. As of July 2016, some 190-230 T-80Us remained in service (in the 4th GTD).
With the 423rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment reequipped with T-80BVs from unknown time period, the 4th GTD participated in the war with two regiments (12&13th GTR) of some 189 T-80U tanks (of which 4 BTG worth of 126 tanks were committed in the first period).
Among them 101 (53.4%) were confirmed lost by @oryxspioenkop . If we add the "unknown tanks" and the fact that only some 80% of actual loss, the loss ratio would be [101+206*101/(1845-206)]/(189*0.8)=75.3%(!) This is not surprising since the 4th GTD f*cked up a lot.
My wonder is, however, after a whole year of battle, there is still no evidence that any T-80Us were reactivated for service. It is logical to introduce the tank of the same type to an unit that is familar to it. But it didn't happen.
The most reasonable explanation is that these retired tank are mainly T-80UDs with Ukrainian 6TD-1 diesel engine that Russia can not manufacture. Another explanation is that it mainly served in high readiness units in which its motor hour was rapidly depleted.
Among these "disappeared" T-80U pieces, the fate of some are known. Many were simply scrapped in the 206th Armor Tank Repair Plant (BTRZ) in Primorsky Krai, before the plant was bankrupted in 2012.
primamedia.ru/news/242392/
Some were destroyed as target vehicles in maneuvers.
Back in March 2022, there was unconfirmed reports by the Ukr MOD that the commander of RU 13th GTR committed suicide on discovering 90% of his reserved tanks could not be used. But this is never officially confirmed.
mirror.co.uk/news/world-new…
My assumption is there is simply no T-80U storage anymore for the Russian Army and the Russian T-80U fleet has effectively been non-exist. end/

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More from @partizan_oleg

Jun 25, 2023
Speculation and comments on the events of the armed mutiny of PMC Wagner:
My guess is that Prigozhin's operation achieved its basic objectives, but not its further objectives.
Prigozhin's operation should have had three levels of objectives: 1/
1. his primary goal was to achieve the independence of Wagner (or at least a few thousand of his own soldiers) from the Ministry of Defense, which was achieved with his arrival in Belarus and the Russian announcement that the Wagner members who participated in the insurgency.. 2/
would not be contracted to the Ministry of Defense (I heard that these people were also going to Belarus? I am not quite sure of the accuracy of this source) was obviously achieved; 3/
Read 21 tweets
Mar 28, 2023
Another tank thread. How is Russian tank formation composed of now after they've lost thousands of tanks in their first year of fight? I will give my estimation and methodology. My calculation is based on three assumptions:
1, By end of November 2022, there has been no significant changes on the front. The war had entered a stage of attrition. No major reserves held by Russians. Tank losses are basically happened in a series of skirmishes and drone attacks all across the front.
Therefore, we can assume that the loss rate of all Russian tank types (maybe except for the T-62s) at this time is approximate. In reality the loss rate of relatively new tanks (e.g. the T-72B3s) may be slightly higher but I will ignore it.
Read 24 tweets
Mar 7, 2023
I tried to sort out Russian T-72 stockpiles with limited sources and many assumptions, and here it is: 1/n
Russian military basically stopped to build new T-72 hulls for its own armed forces since the fall of the Soviet Union. From 2013 some 1100 T-72B3/B3Ms were converted from existing T-72B hulls. So the Russian T-72 stockpile maintained unchanged since 1991. 2/n
According to Internet sources (!!) that I can not 100% be sure, some 18,000 T-72s were made before the Soviet breakup. 3/n
Read 13 tweets
Feb 17, 2023
I don't know how credible this figure is, but it is very informative. /1
First of all, the issue of strength, the Tamanskaya Division (2nd GMRD) has been close to full strength, the 3rd MRD also has a great status recovery (to 22.2.24 status), and the 144th GMRD also seems to have recovered strength to some extent. /2
The rest, i.e. the 4th GTD, 47 GTD, 18th GMRD and the 90th GTD are in poor condition: no better than August-September 2022. /3
Read 12 tweets
Sep 22, 2022
Thread with rough calculations and estimations. Can be wrong.
Whether these "300-thousand" mobilized troops are integrated into existing units to compensate losses to form new ones, the Ru Army will still face a lack of experienced reserve officers and soldiers. 1/n
Previously, according to Russian soldiers, the volunteers recruited after the outbreak of the military conflict were thrown into the battlefield without effective training and were barely able to constitute a fighting force. 2/n Image
Russian front-line officers also at platoon-company level also suffered heavy casualties and were in urgent need of replenishment. Another problem is "cargo-500", the refusiniks, who is in great numbers in both enlisted and commissioned ranks. 3/n
Read 22 tweets
Aug 4, 2022
Man, this figure can not be more wrong. It looks like the author messed up with the concept of a (peacetime) battalion and a (wartime) BTG. 1/n
An Ukrainian Mechanized Brigade should have 1 tank battalion and 3 mech btns in peacetime; however, in combat deployment it will only organized into 3 mechanized BTGs, while the tank btn will be torn apart and attach to the BTGs as tank companies. 2/n
Battalions are not combined arms units until BTGs are organized. However, the author somehow messed them up, therefore creating a non-existing "tank BTG" in every mech brigade (and a non-existing mech BTG in every tank brigade). 3/n
Read 7 tweets

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