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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Mar 17, 2023 • 13 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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THREAD

UK govt has just days to update its net-zero strategy, which was ruled unlawful by the high court last yr



After this week's #Budget2023 failed to meaningfully move things forward, where do things stand?

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…
Let's wind back to last year's high court ruling, which forced govt to admit its plans for cutting emissions only added up to 95% of the cuts needed under legally-binding UK goals

(The attached table had not been made public before the legal challenge)

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Court said govt plans needn't add up to 100% but said risk of policies not delivering as planned was "all-important" & shld have been taken into account

➡️Delivery risk is a key theme

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Moreover, court said govt failed to publicly quantify the impact of its policies (it had done so privately) & also failed to explain how it wld make up gap btwn quantified policies & legal limit

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
We know that delivery risk is very real, because govt's official adviser @theCCCuk says there are only "credible" plans to meet 39% of req'd emissions cuts

Plans beyond that carry "some" or "significant risk" – and even those don't go 100% to the target

carbonbrief.org/ccc-costly-gas… Image
New @GreenAllianceUK analysis👇is even more pessimistic, finding only 28% of required emissions cuts have confirmed policy in place

(If you're glass half-full, analysis finds policy out for consultation adding up to ~60% + policy ambition reaching 87%…)

To continue the theme on delivery, the govt-commissioned Net Zero Review from Conservative MP @CSkidmoreUK found govt was "not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery"

carbonbrief.org/net-zero-is-ec…
Similarly, the recent @theCCCuk report on how to get reliable zero-carbon UK electricity supplies said the govt goal of a "fully decarbonised" grid by 2035 was possible, but only with "urgent reform"

carbonbrief.org/ccc-heres-how-…
While this week's budget included lofty ambitions for nuclear and carbon capture and storage, there was precious little firm detail to move things forward

Instead, it said there would be "further action" on emissions "later this month"

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…
(and let's not forget the chancellor's latest fuel duty freeze, which together with 13yrs of similar cuts in real terms means UK CO2 emissions are as much a 7% higher than they would have been)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-fuel-… Image
So there's a huge amount riding on the "further action" due "later this month" – and no room for delay because of the high court deadline

According to Bloomberg, this action is going to be set out on what officials are calling "green day"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The Guardian reports secretary of state @grantshapps saying the govt plans this month will boost wind, solar, heat pumps and hydrogen

theguardian.com/environment/20… Image
Our sources suggest this "green day" may be coming on Thursday 30 March, which would be cutting it fine to say the least…

…but rest assured we @CarbonBrief will be watching closely and bringing you our usual, detailed coverage

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 25
NEW: UK climate advisers now "more optimistic" net-zero goals can be met

🎯Net-zero "possible" + "good for economy"
📉CO2 halved vs 1990
📈More "credible" policies
🚘🏡EV/heat pumps soaring
But…
⚡"Critical" to cut power prices
✈️Flight CO2 "risk"

1/9 Image
For the first time I can remember, the CCC says its progress report is "optimistic" about UK climate goals being hit. Interim chair Prof Piers Forster says he is "more optimistic" than last yr due to last govt's policies starting to deliver + changes since Labour took office

2/9 Image
Another notable change is that the CCC seems to be getting less prescriptive…

CCC has faced (inaccurate) charges that it has, in effect, set govt policy. But it's now being clearer than ever that it only offers advice – and policy is up to govt.

3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 17
IEA: Oil still on track to peak by 2030; oil for fuel to peak in 2027

"annual growth slows…to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends"

Here are some of the most striking charts 🧵
1/8 Image
In recent years, global oil demand has been almost entirely driven by growth in China…

…and that party is now over

Equally, US "dominance" of rising oil supply is also a thing of the past
2/8 Image
Since last year, the IEA has raised its oil demand outlook for the US, due to EV rollbacks etc, but it has simultaneously cut its outlook for China by the same amount

So global demand in 2030 is right where the IEA thought it would be last year
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
May 15
Could this be the biggest climate story of the year?

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand

Full analysis + outlook by Lauri Myllyvirta:


1/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
In Q1 of 2025, the clean-energy driven drop in power sector CO2 outweighed small increases in other sectors of China's economy, driving a 1.6% fall year-on-year overall


2/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
The fall in power sector emissions came despite surging electricity demand growth

This is the first time on record that clean energy growth has been sufficient to cut into coal power, without the help of weak power demand


3/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Apr 30
FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6 Image
Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6 Image
Nor does Blair say "current net-zero policies are doomed"

Because literally no govt in the world has a current net-zero policy to "phase out fossil fuels in the short term or limit consumption"

Instead, world's govts agreed at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels"
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 26
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 10
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets

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