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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Mar 17, 2023 • 13 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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UK govt has just days to update its net-zero strategy, which was ruled unlawful by the high court last yr



After this week's #Budget2023 failed to meaningfully move things forward, where do things stand?

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…
Let's wind back to last year's high court ruling, which forced govt to admit its plans for cutting emissions only added up to 95% of the cuts needed under legally-binding UK goals

(The attached table had not been made public before the legal challenge)

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Court said govt plans needn't add up to 100% but said risk of policies not delivering as planned was "all-important" & shld have been taken into account

➡️Delivery risk is a key theme

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Moreover, court said govt failed to publicly quantify the impact of its policies (it had done so privately) & also failed to explain how it wld make up gap btwn quantified policies & legal limit

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
We know that delivery risk is very real, because govt's official adviser @theCCCuk says there are only "credible" plans to meet 39% of req'd emissions cuts

Plans beyond that carry "some" or "significant risk" – and even those don't go 100% to the target

carbonbrief.org/ccc-costly-gas… Image
New @GreenAllianceUK analysis👇is even more pessimistic, finding only 28% of required emissions cuts have confirmed policy in place

(If you're glass half-full, analysis finds policy out for consultation adding up to ~60% + policy ambition reaching 87%…)

To continue the theme on delivery, the govt-commissioned Net Zero Review from Conservative MP @CSkidmoreUK found govt was "not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery"

carbonbrief.org/net-zero-is-ec…
Similarly, the recent @theCCCuk report on how to get reliable zero-carbon UK electricity supplies said the govt goal of a "fully decarbonised" grid by 2035 was possible, but only with "urgent reform"

carbonbrief.org/ccc-heres-how-…
While this week's budget included lofty ambitions for nuclear and carbon capture and storage, there was precious little firm detail to move things forward

Instead, it said there would be "further action" on emissions "later this month"

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…
(and let's not forget the chancellor's latest fuel duty freeze, which together with 13yrs of similar cuts in real terms means UK CO2 emissions are as much a 7% higher than they would have been)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-fuel-… Image
So there's a huge amount riding on the "further action" due "later this month" – and no room for delay because of the high court deadline

According to Bloomberg, this action is going to be set out on what officials are calling "green day"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The Guardian reports secretary of state @grantshapps saying the govt plans this month will boost wind, solar, heat pumps and hydrogen

theguardian.com/environment/20… Image
Our sources suggest this "green day" may be coming on Thursday 30 March, which would be cutting it fine to say the least…

…but rest assured we @CarbonBrief will be watching closely and bringing you our usual, detailed coverage

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Sep 27
NEW: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power 🧵

Four key ingredients in UK's success:

❌🏭Stopping new coal
❤️‍🔥☢️🌄Building alternatives
💷Making polluters pay
📢Clear political signals

But there's much more to say…

1/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)

⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)

2/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
But the UK was the world's first "coal-fired economy" – and that started long before coal-fired power

🥤Coal fuelled pumps to drain mines to get more coal
📈And as steam engines got more efficient, it got cheaper to use and extract ever more of the fuel, inspiring "Jevons paradox"

3/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…Image
Read 10 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Aug 6
Oh dear oh dear, Andrew likes to pose as an energy expert, but *everything* he adds here is wrong

💷His biggest omission is that higher power imports means lower bills for consumers💷

Shall we count the other ways he's wrong?

Yes, let's, with added GIFs and some MATHS🧵
Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023

Here's some news coverage of the data:

current-news.co.uk/spike-british-…
Let's pause for a moment to congratulate Andrew for successfully quoting a report (albeit without attribution)

This is the only thing he did right.
Read 15 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 18
NEW ANALYSIS: Cutting the 'green crap' has added £22bn to UK energy bills since 2015

🏘️Insulation rates down 98%
🏚️>1.6m new homes built to low stds
🌄Onshore wind/solar growth crashed

A decade of rollbacks has left the UK more reliant on gas imports – and exposed to high gas prices

carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…Image
Just over a decade ago, then-PM David Cameron was infamously reported to have told aides to "get rid of the green crap" as a "solution to soaring energy prices"… Image
After Cameron's "get rid of the green crap" frontpage, a series of UK climate rollbacks followed

First, policy changes and funding cuts for home insulation improvements, with annual loft+cavity wall installations now 98% below previous levels Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
May 9
Fossil-fueled chemicals boss Sir Jim Ratcliffe has an anti-EV tirade in today’s Daily Telegraph, littered with outright falsehoods, half-truths and selective facts

Exhibit 1: Far from "coming to a halt", EV demand grew by 25% in Q1 of this year

Let’s take a look shall we?

1/ Image
Exhibit 2: Ratcliffe cherrypicks Germany – where EV subsidies recently ended – to argue that demand is drying up

As already mentioned, global EV sales grew 25% in Q1 of this year, according to the IEA

2/ Image
How about China, Jim? Ah yes, EV sales are up 35% so far this year. But I guess that didn't fit your narrative.

Nor does the UK, I guess, given sales are up 11% in 2024ytd (31% for plug-in hybrids, on which more later)

3/
Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Apr 4
It seems @mattwridley thinks @Telegraph readers are idiots

Let's run the numbers:

244,000km2 = area of the UK
5-10% = share of UK Matt says would need to be covered with solar to meet electricity demand in June

40MW = solar capacity per km2
500-1,000GW = solar capacity, if covering 5-10% of UK
300% = share of total UK electricity demand that would be generated by 1,000GW of UK solar
650GW = current solar capacity of China, roughly half the global total
<30GW = actual UK summer peak demand

15GW = current solar capacity of UK, of which ~10GW ground mounted
0.1% = current solar land take
70GW = UK govt solar target, because no one thinks we can run the country on solar alone
<1% = future land take

>20% = reduction in UK gas imports if govt solar target is met

Zero = credibility of Matt's articleImage
Image
Sources:

Land requirement for UK solar 40MW per km2 = 6 acres per MW, based on current solar farms; as noted in the article, govt says future farms would need 2-3x less land

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-s…
Summer peak demand is 28GW says NGESO

nationalgrideso.com/research-and-p…
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Mar 13
Despite all the UK govt rhetoric about "new gas", confirmation today in parliament that govt expects unabated gas to meet ~1% of demand in 2035

Minister @grahamstuart, responding to an urgent Q from @CarolineLucas, described new gas capacity as "back-up…sensible insurance"

1/ Image
In the debate, we also saw the mask slip from former sec of state Jacob Rees-Mogg, who as a govt minister paid lip service to climate action (left) but now admits he wants to "postpone net-zero indefinitely" (right)

2/
Image
Image
Responding to Rees-Mogg – who clearly still doesn't understand why geography matters when it comes to energy, trade, or indeed trade in energy – Stuart "chide[d]" him & said there was a "climate…emergency"

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets

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