Let's wind back to last year's high court ruling, which forced govt to admit its plans for cutting emissions only added up to 95% of the cuts needed under legally-binding UK goals
(The attached table had not been made public before the legal challenge)
Court said govt plans needn't add up to 100% but said risk of policies not delivering as planned was "all-important" & shld have been taken into account
Moreover, court said govt failed to publicly quantify the impact of its policies (it had done so privately) & also failed to explain how it wld make up gap btwn quantified policies & legal limit
We know that delivery risk is very real, because govt's official adviser @theCCCuk says there are only "credible" plans to meet 39% of req'd emissions cuts
Plans beyond that carry "some" or "significant risk" – and even those don't go 100% to the target
To continue the theme on delivery, the govt-commissioned Net Zero Review from Conservative MP @CSkidmoreUK found govt was "not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery"
Similarly, the recent @theCCCuk report on how to get reliable zero-carbon UK electricity supplies said the govt goal of a "fully decarbonised" grid by 2035 was possible, but only with "urgent reform"
While this week's budget included lofty ambitions for nuclear and carbon capture and storage, there was precious little firm detail to move things forward
Instead, it said there would be "further action" on emissions "later this month"
(and let's not forget the chancellor's latest fuel duty freeze, which together with 13yrs of similar cuts in real terms means UK CO2 emissions are as much a 7% higher than they would have been)
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant
* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70% 1/5
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output
This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable
Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met
UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%
Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh 2/9
The UK has cut gas-fired electricity generation by 13% in a decade – even as it was phasing out coal power – thanks to rising renewable output (mainly wind), along with lower demand + higher imports
UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)
⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)
But the UK was the world's first "coal-fired economy" – and that started long before coal-fired power
🥤Coal fuelled pumps to drain mines to get more coal
📈And as steam engines got more efficient, it got cheaper to use and extract ever more of the fuel, inspiring "Jevons paradox"
Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023
Just over a decade ago, then-PM David Cameron was infamously reported to have told aides to "get rid of the green crap" as a "solution to soaring energy prices"…
After Cameron's "get rid of the green crap" frontpage, a series of UK climate rollbacks followed
First, policy changes and funding cuts for home insulation improvements, with annual loft+cavity wall installations now 98% below previous levels