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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Mar 17, 2023 • 13 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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THREAD

UK govt has just days to update its net-zero strategy, which was ruled unlawful by the high court last yr



After this week's #Budget2023 failed to meaningfully move things forward, where do things stand?

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…
Let's wind back to last year's high court ruling, which forced govt to admit its plans for cutting emissions only added up to 95% of the cuts needed under legally-binding UK goals

(The attached table had not been made public before the legal challenge)

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Court said govt plans needn't add up to 100% but said risk of policies not delivering as planned was "all-important" & shld have been taken into account

➡️Delivery risk is a key theme

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Moreover, court said govt failed to publicly quantify the impact of its policies (it had done so privately) & also failed to explain how it wld make up gap btwn quantified policies & legal limit

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
We know that delivery risk is very real, because govt's official adviser @theCCCuk says there are only "credible" plans to meet 39% of req'd emissions cuts

Plans beyond that carry "some" or "significant risk" – and even those don't go 100% to the target

carbonbrief.org/ccc-costly-gas… Image
New @GreenAllianceUK analysis👇is even more pessimistic, finding only 28% of required emissions cuts have confirmed policy in place

(If you're glass half-full, analysis finds policy out for consultation adding up to ~60% + policy ambition reaching 87%…)

To continue the theme on delivery, the govt-commissioned Net Zero Review from Conservative MP @CSkidmoreUK found govt was "not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery"

carbonbrief.org/net-zero-is-ec…
Similarly, the recent @theCCCuk report on how to get reliable zero-carbon UK electricity supplies said the govt goal of a "fully decarbonised" grid by 2035 was possible, but only with "urgent reform"

carbonbrief.org/ccc-heres-how-…
While this week's budget included lofty ambitions for nuclear and carbon capture and storage, there was precious little firm detail to move things forward

Instead, it said there would be "further action" on emissions "later this month"

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…
(and let's not forget the chancellor's latest fuel duty freeze, which together with 13yrs of similar cuts in real terms means UK CO2 emissions are as much a 7% higher than they would have been)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-fuel-… Image
So there's a huge amount riding on the "further action" due "later this month" – and no room for delay because of the high court deadline

According to Bloomberg, this action is going to be set out on what officials are calling "green day"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The Guardian reports secretary of state @grantshapps saying the govt plans this month will boost wind, solar, heat pumps and hydrogen

theguardian.com/environment/20… Image
Our sources suggest this "green day" may be coming on Thursday 30 March, which would be cutting it fine to say the least…

…but rest assured we @CarbonBrief will be watching closely and bringing you our usual, detailed coverage

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 26
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 10
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jan 2
+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%


1/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-e…Image
UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%

Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh
2/9 Image
The UK has cut gas-fired electricity generation by 13% in a decade – even as it was phasing out coal power – thanks to rising renewable output (mainly wind), along with lower demand + higher imports

More on falling demand here:

3/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-el…Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Oct 30, 2024
Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

1/7 Image
Fossil fuels account for 40% of global shipping trade by volume – but only 10% by value

2/7 Image
The world's solar industry employs as many people as gas

Solar + EVs + batteries + wind combined employ as many as oil
3/7 Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Sep 27, 2024
NEW: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power 🧵

Four key ingredients in UK's success:

❌🏭Stopping new coal
❤️‍🔥☢️🌄Building alternatives
💷Making polluters pay
📢Clear political signals

But there's much more to say…

1/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)

⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)

2/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
But the UK was the world's first "coal-fired economy" – and that started long before coal-fired power

🥤Coal fuelled pumps to drain mines to get more coal
📈And as steam engines got more efficient, it got cheaper to use and extract ever more of the fuel, inspiring "Jevons paradox"

3/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…Image
Read 10 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Aug 6, 2024
Oh dear oh dear, Andrew likes to pose as an energy expert, but *everything* he adds here is wrong

💷His biggest omission is that higher power imports means lower bills for consumers💷

Shall we count the other ways he's wrong?

Yes, let's, with added GIFs and some MATHS🧵
Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023

Here's some news coverage of the data:

current-news.co.uk/spike-british-…
Let's pause for a moment to congratulate Andrew for successfully quoting a report (albeit without attribution)

This is the only thing he did right.
Read 15 tweets

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