Thread by @DrSimEvans

THREAD

UK govt has just days to update its net-zero strategy, which was ruled unlawful by the high court last yr

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1549417193523367937

After this week's #Budget2023 failed to meaningfully move things forward, where do things stand?

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…

Let's wind back to last year's high court ruling, which forced govt to admit its plans for cutting emissions only added up to 95% of the cuts needed under legally-binding UK goals

(The attached table had not been made public before the legal challenge)

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl…

Court said govt plans needn't add up to 100% but said risk of policies not delivering as planned was "all-important" & shld have been taken into account

➡️Delivery risk is a key theme

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl…

Moreover, court said govt failed to publicly quantify the impact of its policies (it had done so privately) & also failed to explain how it wld make up gap btwn quantified policies & legal limit

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl…

We know that delivery risk is very real, because govt's official adviser @theCCCuk says there are only "credible" plans to meet 39% of req'd emissions cuts

Plans beyond that carry "some" or "significant risk" – and even those don't go 100% to the target

carbonbrief.org/ccc-costly-gas…

New @GreenAllianceUK analysis👇is even more pessimistic, finding only 28% of required emissions cuts have confirmed policy in place

(If you're glass half-full, analysis finds policy out for consultation adding up to ~60% + policy ambition reaching 87%…)

https://twitter.com/GreenAllianceUK/status/1636722063883792386

To continue the theme on delivery, the govt-commissioned Net Zero Review from Conservative MP @CSkidmoreUK found govt was "not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery"

carbonbrief.org/net-zero-is-ec…

Similarly, the recent @theCCCuk report on how to get reliable zero-carbon UK electricity supplies said the govt goal of a "fully decarbonised" grid by 2035 was possible, but only with "urgent reform"

carbonbrief.org/ccc-heres-how-…

While this week's budget included lofty ambitions for nuclear and carbon capture and storage, there was precious little firm detail to move things forward

Instead, it said there would be "further action" on emissions "later this month"

carbonbrief.org/uk-spring-budg…

(and let's not forget the chancellor's latest fuel duty freeze, which together with 13yrs of similar cuts in real terms means UK CO2 emissions are as much a 7% higher than they would have been)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-fuel-…

So there's a huge amount riding on the "further action" due "later this month" – and no room for delay because of the high court deadline

According to Bloomberg, this action is going to be set out on what officials are calling "green day"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The Guardian reports secretary of state @grantshapps saying the govt plans this month will boost wind, solar, heat pumps and hydrogen

theguardian.com/environment/20…

Our sources suggest this "green day" may be coming on Thursday 30 March, which would be cutting it fine to say the least…

…but rest assured we @CarbonBrief will be watching closely and bringing you our usual, detailed coverage