Good panel on Russia sanctions #isa2023
How is really unprecedented? Scale of sanctions less than some (Iran)
What’s new @B_R_Early combo of sanctions +private sector pressure, @DrClaraPortela rolling sets of sanctions vswaiting to see what works, much more enforcement focus
.@HanaSaadAttia willingness of senders to take on more costs sender (esp EU) @FraGiumelli larger country targeted. Preparation/pre-negotiation among sending countries.
Thomas Biersteker: innovations on tools, immediate freezing of govt assets etc.
Plus - use of all the tools
Most of answers reflect interplay between sanctions and war dynamics including role of Ukrainian message in social and broadcast media. And scale of conflict issue which exposed issues in enforcement.
Also good discussion on effectiveness and impact - tensions of course on two interlinked themes - evasion is to be expected and workarounds are developed and fact that these measures tend to grow over time. Both themes discussed recently at @PrincetonCISS conference.
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Ending #isa2023 w panel on “getting Russia Right: do we need to adjust our frameworks for studying Russia yet again? With set of Russia experts different disciplines Starting w Steven Hanson of @williamandmary and fellow board member at Pamela Harriman Foreign Service Fellowships
Steve highlighted (quickly) shift in how western scholars studied Russian policy making- through Soviet novels and memoirs to “transitology” focus on transit to new (perhaps more liberal), then to seeing it as “normal” authoritarian country to facilitate causal identification
Steve Hanson: throughout the last several decades, learned from all the different methods to study Russia but lack a regime theory change. Focus too much on democracy vs autocracy tradeoff.
Next up more sanctions papers #isa2023 Dursun Peksen on how sanctions impact elections. Finds that sanctions have more effect if shortly before elections vs long-standing and where election is in contest. Logical results. Implication: may be a window for concessions
But of course many sanctions targets do not have competitive elections. But overall, part of useful attempt to track more closely the near-term political dynamics and builds on his prior work on political/econ consolidation
Next @AndreaCharron@DrClaraPortela interrogating the many sanctions databases that have popped up. Some sanctions databases struggle to code how comprehensive measures are (targeted - a few people or major sectoral measures). They find new databases not much of an improvement
Russia announced plans to ‘suspend’ grain deal w Ukraine (brokered by Turkey) not long before it was set to expire, as chances of renewal were looking more dire. military situation and recent threats, this had looked more likely but bad sign for food but broader escalation.
Russia had been preparing ground domestically for a potential exit/non-renewal for months almost since time of signing but is using excuse of Crimea attacks to suspend. Raises imp q if it’s withdrawal or negotiating tactic (last time targeted ag trade related sanctions relief)
Can’t imagine that this will go over well with Turkey or with some of the middle eastern countries relying on grain or which had been willing to operate in grey areas of trade. Also likely reflects recent increase in security issues that were already challenging trade