Black Sea grain deal extended, as hoped + signalled a few days ago, but w some ambiguity about length of rollover as Russia pointed to 60days vs the 120 signalled by other signatories/guarantors. No public signs of new sanctions relief but details may come ft.com/content/4dcc5a… Russia signal of a shorter time may increase risk of a suspension/review. But too short a time horizon adds to transport risks, along with ongoing issues. No sign of concessions on ammonia exports but will watch for any derogations or exemptions

Ending #isa2023 w panel on “getting Russia Right: do we need to adjust our frameworks for studying Russia yet again? With set of Russia experts different disciplines Starting w Steven Hanson of @williamandmary and fellow board member at Pamela Harriman Foreign Service Fellowships Steve highlighted (quickly) shift in how western scholars studied Russian policy making- through Soviet novels and memoirs to “transitology” focus on transit to new (perhaps more liberal), then to seeing it as “normal” authoritarian country to facilitate causal identification

Next up more sanctions papers #isa2023 Dursun Peksen on how sanctions impact elections. Finds that sanctions have more effect if shortly before elections vs long-standing and where election is in contest. Logical results. Implication: may be a window for concessions But of course many sanctions targets do not have competitive elections. But overall, part of useful attempt to track more closely the near-term political dynamics and builds on his prior work on political/econ consolidation

Good panel on Russia sanctions #isa2023
How is really unprecedented? Scale of sanctions less than some (Iran)
What’s new @B_R_Early combo of sanctions +private sector pressure,
@DrClaraPortela rolling sets of sanctions vswaiting to see what works, much more enforcement focus .@HanaSaadAttia willingness of senders to take on more costs sender (esp EU)
@FraGiumelli larger country targeted. Preparation/pre-negotiation among sending countries.
Thomas Biersteker: innovations on tools, immediate freezing of govt assets etc.
Plus - use of all the tools

Russia announced plans to ‘suspend’ grain deal w Ukraine (brokered by Turkey) not long before it was set to expire, as chances of renewal were looking more dire. military situation and recent threats, this had looked more likely but bad sign for food but broader escalation.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1586375497931538444

Russia had been preparing ground domestically for a potential exit/non-renewal for months almost since time of signing but is using excuse of Crimea attacks to suspend. Raises imp q if it’s withdrawal or negotiating tactic (last time targeted ag trade related sanctions relief)