Thread by @_ppmv

1. The art and craft of policy or the “there is no car” problem, as roy scranton calls it

https://twitter.com/worldbollard/status/1636811514513375237

2. Even if we had a driver, there’s a bigger problem: no car.

No problem for our friends over at @Wankpanzer!

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1549097447171014656

3. If you can’t handle the road ahead, no biggie: just follow the flow 👍

https://twitter.com/Wankpanzer/status/1636447059686334469

4. I need to correct the meme slightly: acute phase SARS deaths increase AND collapse exponentially, as epidemics do. Excess mortality statistics assume ‘endemic’ change, slow rates of change like tides/seasonal influenza, hence the curious pattern. Japan added - what do you see?

https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1635309534158946306

5. Yes Japan is a perfect harmonious oscillator, very impressive of Japanese hospital patients to behave so nicely.

6. That’s an enormous gap between recorded Covid deaths and excess mortality in Japan. Folks handling data can probably explain it, but the percentage difference is far greater even then vor the other three - each pretty bad.

7. This is where the art of policy comes in. Look at the maps! WHO-reported COVID cases are vast undercounts (cases several times higher) because states are failing.

99% of the public discourse is about individual measures, not about public policy (IHR 2005, pandemic playbooks)!

https://twitter.com/realcheckmarker/status/1622949550712410114

8. Even discussing masks, HEPA filters, lockdowns etc. is largely a waste of time. Lockdown was never part of WHO’s pandemic playbook, for good reason! They are not needed; and have been abused to stop the idea of eliminating SARS.

“Living without Covid” always was common sense.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1583103912969928705

9. This needs to suffice to introduce @RealCheckMarker’s excellent thread. Everyone should read it to understand the art of pandemic policy. 🙏

https://twitter.com/realcheckmarker/status/1622935268469743625

10. Live shot of the US ending the public health emergency on May 11 against all evidence of risk:*

* Never mind that XBB.1.5 XBB.1.16 XBB.ABC (the next big one) ensure this outcome. 🤦🏻‍♀️ Let’s see how long insurances and HCW will clean up after the administration.

https://twitter.com/wankpanzer/status/1636425037015072772

11. All the establishment types who couldn’t be bothered to protest now - or over the past three years when it really mattered:

“No one could have seen this coming!” 👻

https://twitter.com/Wankpanzer/status/1630498859448238081

12. Now excuse me as I dedicate a little more time to poetry and coffee.

Hit me up once a few more of you guys have grown a spine or something new needs to be said. The present mode isn’t effective/well-resourced/sustainable enough; we can’t keep driving in circles here.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1633089130564403200

13. Appreciate the irony of seeing the public and policymakers struggle with a simple pandemic, as if they had never thought about truly global governance problems before. This is quite straightforward compared to climate.

It even has solutions any five year old can understand.

https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1622952851097149444

The #LeonardiEffect will add positive feedback over the coming years. It’s a dynamical policy problem.

SARS requires international cooperation and rethinking the IS, not deflecting public attention. This can solve other problems, not climate or pandemics.

Be well everyone, 🤣🙏

14. The problem in climate: we have drivers but no car.

The problem of public health differs: we have a car and insurance that even covers climate events (IHR 2005). The drivers just can’t be bothered and the passengers don’t seem to care. 😂 @RoyScranton mustarinda.fi/magazine/post-…