Balaji is betting $1m that 1 BTC is > $1 million in less than 90 days

It's a $1m marketing stunt - everyone's talking about it, and he'll go on a huge media/podcast tour.

• Raises alarm for hyperinflation
• Makes $ back from price appreciation
• Eyeballs to his new podcast
The media will love him.

He has the credibility of getting the COVID call right and is the former CTO of Coinbase.

No chance his prediction will come true. But my fucking god, we have someone insane enough to want to be this cycle's main character.

I've seen some comments dismissing him as going crazy.

1 thing I've learned since the Pandemic is to be more open-minded.

The $1m bet is just the "hook" for us to think about what happens if the banks fail, and if hyperinflation happens.

"But $1m is so much money."

None of us would be talking about this if it was any less.

Plus, it's a drop in the bucket compared to his estimated net worth. (I saw some figures at $1.5B)
"What about the damage to his reputation/credibility if he's wrong?"

It's not going to be as drastic compared to say Capo in CT.

People will still view Bajali as a smart mf'er regardless.

"I am directionally correct, but I miscalculated timeframes. Hyperinflation is coming"
In the 2017 cycle, McAfee bet BTC would hit $1m, or he'd eat his own dick.

It didn't happen. He didn't eat his own 🍆.

But he accomplished his goal - BTC price pumped and he got a ton of attention for the stunt.
One observation

Every cycle has a different BTC main character.

2017: McAfee
2020: Michael Saylor
2023: Balaji???

It HAS to be a different guy each time. This wouldn't get as much attention if Saylor made the bet.

#BitSignal does sound like the work of a talented PR firm.
By the way,

If you like tweets like this, you’ll love my weekly newsletter (it’s free).

Will be thinking about this topic some more.

Every Thursday, I share new strategies, narratives, and the latest news in DeFi.

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The biggest risk isn't damage to his reputation if he's wrong.

There's a master plan for governments to start implementing CBDCs. Someone shouting for $1m BTC and the collapse of western civilization is a problem.

I'll let you fill in the blanks.

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More from @thedefiedge

Mar 17
A lesson I learned from Chess is to go for small, consistent gains. I've lost many games going for the big, aggressive plays.

What are the big plays in Crypto? Using leverage or high-risk portfolios chasing "100x."

Don't underestimate the power of small wins + compounding.
This reminds me of my Starcraft days.

I was obsessed with "big plays" like rushing my opponent and quitting if it failed.

It was because I didn't trust my skills. So I learned to slow down, focus on my macro, and win the small skirmishes.
Remember, it's never black and white like DCA only vs. 100x leverage.

I break MY portfolio into different sections.

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21 must-know DeFiLlama features you should be using:
DeFiLlama is the most popular tool in DeFi.

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They've been continuously shipping this past year, and some of their best updates have flown under the radar.

I've gathered some of my favorites.

Here's your Edge 🗡️:
Borrowing Aggregator

According to the head llama, the borrow aggregator is most underused.

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This feature automates finding the best rates for you. Think Google Flights for DeFi lending rates.
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Want to find the next 10x gems?

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Finding Your Own Alpha

If you keep relying on other people for alpha, you'll become their exit liquidity.

Don't be stuck at the bottom of the food chain.

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Have the courage you'll figure it out along the way.
Less books and podcasts.

More...
When people call you smart your whole life, the cost of failure is high. You're scared of not living up to that image.

Average people? No one expects greatness from them. So they can take plenty of swings and misses.

But it's those swings and misses that lead to success.
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Here's the free mini-course I wish I had when I started...

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(so you don't have to rely on influencers)
What I'll be Covering:

1. Product
2. People
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Your process of evaluating investments is more important than the outcome.

Anyone can get lucky with a few good trades - being consistently profitable (and keeping it) is by design.

You won't have ANY edge if you rely on the analysis of other people.
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You can use what he learned to improve your Crypto trading.

Here’s the 2-minute story:
The Beauty Contest

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Level 1 - The Naive Strategy

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What if you think big noses are hot, but most people don't?

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