Risk management is the most important skill in Crypto.

If you don’t manage your risks, the market will manage it for you.

20 smart rules to lower your risks (and increase profits): Rotate Faster

Narratives and sentiment shift quickly. New protocols can Usurp market leaders within weeks.

Stay on top of the markets. Get in early, and get out before everyone else does.

Most people will end this bull market with $0.

They'll make preventable mistakes that cost themselves life-changing wealth.

So here are 15 mistakes to AVOID in bull markets (and how to prevent them): (make sure you bookmark the tweet above to save)

1. Not Taking Profits

No one cares about your ATH portfolio - what matters is what you KEEP at the end of the cycle.

Here's an example of a system:

(adjust to your own risk tolerances)

Most people suck at managing their Crypto research.

They'll feel information overload and FALL BEHIND in the bull market.

Here are some frameworks to be more organized & to stop feeling overwhelmed: Crypto keeps expanding while you're stuck at 2-3 hours a day of research.

Information overload happens when your brain has too many inputs to handle.

information overload → burn out → poor investing decisions

(Make sure you bookmark this thread for reference)

The Crypto Bull Market is here.

You can make life-changing money in the next 2 years, but ONLY IF you use the right strategies.

Here's my step-by-step playbook to maximize your profits:

(includes portfolio strategies and choosing narratives) What you'll learn:

• Portfolio strategies
• Narrative selection
• Bull market frameworks

Bookmark the tweet above because you'll want easy access to it when things start going crazy.

Let's begin.

If you haven't done your 2024 annual planning yet, read this: "Direction is more important than speed."

Spending a few hours (or even days) doing your annual planning is the highest leverage thing you can do right now.

I've been planning annually for 15+ years, and I'll share my battle-tested frameworks for personal/crypto with you.

Being early is an advantage.

But there's nothing worse than thinking you're early when you're the exit liquidity.

Ask, how did you find out about this project?

Early: On-chain movements
Late: Reading a thread from a big influencer. Congrats, you're their exit liquidity. Consider a narrative's lifespan.

Narratives don't last long in choppy markets due to lack of inflows / later entrants.

How long did hamster / friendtech last?

They can last for months in a bull market due to so many more players and liquidity.

Bald is a memecoin that skyrocketed to $100m within 2 days.

Then the mysterious dev pulled liquidity and crashed the price.

The main suspect behind this?

Sam Bankman Fried.

Here's everything you need to know in 5 minutes: First, this is 100% speculation - none of this is evidence.

But where there's smoke, there's fire. There are enough coincidences to give this story a look.

The details are all over the place, so I wanted to curate everything so you can catch up quickly.

I hate new books.

Ever read a book that has like 4 pages of nuggets, but 400+ pages of filler?

I rather re-read great books. You understand the material much deeper the 2nd or 3rd time around.

Here are a few gems that I'm re-reading now:

Do you guys have any recs? “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.” - Heraclitus.

You read a book on risk management.
You're like "uh huh"
You get fucking rekt'ed.
You re-read the book again.
You now have the REFERENCE EXPERIENCE to understand.

I interviewed DeFi Gigabrain, @0xSami_, the founder of Redacted Cartel.

We covered:

• Can zk-rollups overtake Arbitrum?
• How to get hired as a DeFi researcher
• The chain he's bullish on besides ETH
• The case for $Dinero
• & more

Here are 10 alpha-packed insights: @0xSami_ "Redacted's built on Ethereum.

How are you thinking about the ETH Layer 2 rotation now?

Arbitrum's the king, but attention's shifting to zk-rollups.

Can zk-rollups overtake optimistic rollups?"

Tips on finding new gems:

• Focus on a few sectors, chains, or narratives.

• Some accounts are good at finding gems. Rare, but possible.

• Find smart money wallets and see what they're accumulating.

• Use tools like DeFiLlama. Look for signals like rapid TVL increases. And remember that this is only the first phase.

• You have to evaluate the protocol.

• See where it fits into your portfolio.

• Plan your entry, exit, and profit-taking strategies.

Everything changed for me when I started creating systems than just ape'ing in.

Research Tips:

1. Set time aside daily for deep research, like reading articles from protocols.

2. Create a Kanban board to keep track of narratives.

3. Keep track of major upcoming events with a Calendar. You can create a "Catalyst Calendar."

4. Tweetdeck + Lists I created an example of a narrative tracker a few months ago using Notion.

I like using Notion as my central hub for everything. Keeps it simple.

Understanding narratives is the key to Crypto success.

But it’s NOT just about being early.

You need to understand "thesis/protocol" fit.

Here’s a breakdown (with examples): A thesis in the 90s:

People would pay for the convenience of having groceries delivered.

WebVan was the first grocery delivery company in 1996. It went bankrupt a few years later because:

• Wrong target audience
• Complex infrastructure
• Burning the money too fast

One crypto sector is estimated to reach $16 Trillion by 2030:

Real World Assets.

This will be the CATALYST for mainstream Crypto adoption.

Here's your 2023 guide to RWAs (and the top protocols): Catalysts

• Amazon's new NFTs are rumored to be tied to RWAs

• Goldman Sachs launched GS Dap to tokenize traditional assets.

• Monetary Authority of Singapore is testing asset tokenization via Project Guardian

• Siemens issues a €60m bond on Polygon

Guys, it's happening

Balaji is betting $1m that 1 BTC is > $1 million in less than 90 days

It's a $1m marketing stunt - everyone's talking about it, and he'll go on a huge media/podcast tour.

• Raises alarm for hyperinflation
• Makes $ back from price appreciation
• Eyeballs to his new podcast The media will love him.

He has the credibility of getting the COVID call right and is the former CTO of Coinbase.

No chance his prediction will come true. But my fucking god, we have someone insane enough to want to be this cycle's main character.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1222921758375927808

A lesson I learned from Chess is to go for small, consistent gains. I've lost many games going for the big, aggressive plays.

What are the big plays in Crypto? Using leverage or high-risk portfolios chasing "100x."

Don't underestimate the power of small wins + compounding. This reminds me of my Starcraft days.

I was obsessed with "big plays" like rushing my opponent and quitting if it failed.

It was because I didn't trust my skills. So I learned to slow down, focus on my macro, and win the small skirmishes.

21 must-know DeFiLlama features you should be using: DeFiLlama is the most popular tool in DeFi.

But most people are probably using around 10% of its features.

They've been continuously shipping this past year, and some of their best updates have flown under the radar.

I've gathered some of my favorites.

Here's your Edge 🗡️:

Want to find the next 10x gems?

You can easily do it on your own using DeFiLlama - for free.

Here's a step-by-step guide to finding your own gems in 2023:

(includes little-known features) Finding Your Own Alpha

If you keep relying on other people for alpha, you'll become their exit liquidity.

Don't be stuck at the bottom of the food chain.

I'm going to share a few techniques that you can apply using DeFiLlama.

Here's your Edge 🗡️ :

Being too smart can hold you back.

You overthink everything and mindfuck yourself out of taking action.

If you can relate, the secret's not in another book - start even if you don't have all the answers.

Have the courage you'll figure it out along the way. Less books and podcasts.

More...

Here's the free mini-course I wish I had when I started...

How to evaluate crypto protocols in 2023:

(so you don't have to rely on influencers) What I'll be Covering:

1. Product
2. People
3. Financials
4. Tokenomics
5. Risk Management
5. Catalysts
6. Pumpnomics
7. Profit Strategies

Length - 35 concise tweets
Reading time - 10 minutes

Here's your edge 🗡️

John Maynard Keyes, the father of Macroeconomics, was a terrible Stock market investor.

His fortunes changed once he started studying beauty contests.

You can use what he learned to improve your Crypto trading.

Here’s the 2-minute story: The Beauty Contest

There was a newspaper game in the early 1900s.

Readers selected who they believed were the 6 prettiest faces.

The reader whose choices most closely matched the 6 most selected women would win a prize.

So which strategy did people use?

I live way below my means.

I've seen far too many people make emotional decisions when the markets drop.

They panic because they have an image & lifestyle to maintain.

Don't be a slave to what others think about you - focus on building wealth, not looking rich. Years ago, me and a friend went on a Couples trip together.

His business was going through a rough patch. Despite that, he insisted on staying in the Park Hyatt.

He probably spent $4k that week. He felt the pressure to keep up appearances for his girlfriend & Instagram.