Thread by @reziemba

Ending #isa2023 w panel on “getting Russia Right: do we need to adjust our frameworks for studying Russia yet again? With set of Russia experts different disciplines Starting w Steven Hanson of @williamandmary and fellow board member at Pamela Harriman Foreign Service Fellowships

Steve highlighted (quickly) shift in how western scholars studied Russian policy making- through Soviet novels and memoirs to “transitology” focus on transit to new (perhaps more liberal), then to seeing it as “normal” authoritarian country to facilitate causal identification

Steve Hanson: throughout the last several decades, learned from all the different methods to study Russia but lack a regime theory change. Focus too much on democracy vs autocracy tradeoff.

Olga Oliker: Not sure we got Russia wrong, some did better than others - centralized decision making, gendered power domestic, colonialist views renear abroad etc. What many got wrong was Russian military.

One challenge - Russia is closing, losing important tools (survey, data)

Brian Taylor: US academic work on Russia: challenge: disciplinary standards dominate ->underemphasize area studies work. Eg focus on larger n civil war studies. Many transitions ->
economic transition, state building, national building, return to International system

Sinikukka Saari: the war highlights importance of area studies and country specificities. Notes the heterogeneity of post-soviet space (as do other panelists), Focus now shifting to security w less focus on culture, but hard to understand strategic culture w/out language, lit

Kim Marten: What we know: Putin decided virtually alone, foreign ministry surprised, did not believe intelligence. Inability to admit mistake has led to worse outcomes for Russia than expected. Brain drain and demographic crisis worsening. Clearly cost a decade plus of innovation

Kim Marten: Russia less resilient to future attacks, militarization of budget. risks rise of Wagner group, return of foreign fighter.
post Putin? Elites favor jointly management, but hard to see evolution amid personalist, unlikely liberal democracy. Risk of Egy scenario.

Kim Marten: need more research on public humiliation and rage, and perception thereof to understand new order and risks. Role of national humiliation and believes it has been mistreated. Gap in research on How rage ends?