Here is my take on @annamalai_k 's latest press meet.
The debate is not about BJP going solo vs BJP going with AIADMK, it is about whether or not to place national interest above Tamizh Nadu being freed from the clutches of the Kazhakams.
What is important? What will happen?
As I have said many times in the past, alliance with AIADMK is the choice of the central @BJP4India in the larger interests of the country -
to ensure Congress Mukth Bhārath, and ensuring strength in Rajyasabha.
Alliance with AIADMK is key as every number is precious.
Why Congress Mukth Bharat?
Congress is the only party that still has a pan-India root. Even in the remote villages, Congress is a familiar party, and there is always a risk of resurrection.
It only takes a young vibrant leader to revive the party.
However, for LS elections,
BJP's biggest goal is to contain Congress MPs to a minimum.
There are reasons for this. Also, alliance with AIADMK is needed for strength in Rajyasabha.
HP has shown that Congress can come back to NI states after hibernation.
Besides, no one really knows if Bharat Jodo Yatra
has had any impact on rural India.
I have written earlier about why @JPNadda has said alliance will continue in TN.
It's common sense that if the opposition to Stalin is split, it will give DMK easy victory. He will be tempted to give Congress more seats.
Now let's see why Annamalai has spoken. There could be two reasons:
1. He has made up his mind about going solo 2. Like what Ponnar did last time, Annamalai is signalling to AIADMK that BJP can split the votes and ensure AIADMK does not win too many seats therefore forcing EPS
to give BJP good share of seats, early enough so that BJP can do the field work starting now.
In my view, Annamalai is too straightforward a man to play the second option. Besides, he cannot take his words back if he finally has to backtrack based on what Central BJP decides.
So, it is highly likely that he is speaking his mind out.
Central BJP may not like this, but I am sure Annamalai is able to convince them. If you have to give a dream to TN people, of a clean state, you have to remain clean.
I am FULLY with Annamalai on this.
I firmly believe Annamalai's goal is not 2024 LS. It is 2026 TN Assembly.
3 years for the state Assembly elections, BJP in TN needs to test its strength and grow as an alternative to Kazhakam system and reign in TN.
Why did Annamalai choose this time to say this? Why not wait?
Reason: His #Nadaipayanam has to give something to people. Some hope of change. Something to look forward to.
He has to sow the seeds of hope, of change. #Nadapayanam will be wasted if he cannot offer a radical idea of change.
I was expecting something like this all the way.
As I have written (many times) before, EPS does not like Annamalai and sees him as his number 1 threat.
Knowing this, Annamalai cannot compromise and form alliance pledging his conscience. He has also understood that AIADMK has lost its power.
Where does this leave Central BJP?
This is clearly a tradeoff between Congress Mukth Bhārath and BJP entering and conquering a new state.
As a political observer, here is my view.
~ Central BJP should strike a deal with Stalin to ensure minimum seats to Congress for the LS elections.
This will be tough as Congress will open up its purse whereas BJP will have to employ other tactics.
~ BJP should still be in a position to form an alliance in LS and RS post 2024 elections. This way, they can fight in the state but can vote for major reforms at the centre.
~ Erode formula has changed TN politics forever.
If Central BJP forces Annamalai to go with AIADMK which is DMK with an A, then he has no locus standi in 2026 as a challenger to Stalin or to EPS himself.
TN is a risky state as it is the Hub of anti-national forces.
The sooner you let BJP come to power, the better it is for the entire country.
I am with Annamalai. This is the shaping of not only a leader for TN, but also the next PM.
He cannot have blemish on him. Please consider alternatives for fixing the national interests as said above
and let Annamalai follow his thani vazhi.
He will deliver. People are with him.
He is the only hope for TN. Both Kazhakams may also come together in future and that is not good news for anyone.
In response to questions on my thread about Nirmal Kumar's exit, here is detailed view of BJP-AIADMK relationship.
~ As I said in Jaipur Dialogue in Jan 2021, EPS had everything to lose in 2021 Assembly Elections. He was seeking re-election as sitting CM.
~ EPS was a good administrator. Given time, he will rise to the stature of JJ and even MGR. He has the cunning, patience, skills, determination, and genuine wish to serve people.
His biggest weakness was L&O. His drawback is that no matter how effective he was, he still was the
product of the DK ideology and ecosystem. So, he let his party's (shared) revenue model allowing his district/ward level leaders to continue to live on extortion, commission, and corruption at the grassroot.
~ Until 2019 LS Elections, EPS did not realise that
I respectfully disagree with most views on BJP's position wrt 2024 and 2026 in TN (also Kerala).
Here is my reason:
~ The old world political view of seeing elections as opportunities to grow the party is partially gone. In the Modi-Shah era, growing party is BAU.
~ As I have said many times in Spaces and threads, for LS elections, allies, seats or candidates are decided by central BJP to align with its national plan
which is Congress Mukth Bhārath
~ In TN, this means give maximum scare to Stalin and prompt him to ask all allies to
contest under DMK symbol. This will reduce Congress' seats in LS.
~ To do this, Stalin must believe that his opposition is strong. For that, AIADMK, BJP and other allies should all come together and identify winnable seats and candidates.