Here is my take on @annamalai_k 's latest press meet.

The debate is not about BJP going solo vs BJP going with AIADMK, it is about whether or not to place national interest above Tamizh Nadu being freed from the clutches of the Kazhakams.

What is important? What will happen?
As I have said many times in the past, alliance with AIADMK is the choice of the central @BJP4India in the larger interests of the country -

to ensure Congress Mukth Bhārath, and ensuring strength in Rajyasabha.

Alliance with AIADMK is key as every number is precious.
Why Congress Mukth Bharat?

Congress is the only party that still has a pan-India root. Even in the remote villages, Congress is a familiar party, and there is always a risk of resurrection.

It only takes a young vibrant leader to revive the party.

However, for LS elections,
BJP's biggest goal is to contain Congress MPs to a minimum.

There are reasons for this. Also, alliance with AIADMK is needed for strength in Rajyasabha.

HP has shown that Congress can come back to NI states after hibernation.

Besides, no one really knows if Bharat Jodo Yatra
has had any impact on rural India.

I have written earlier about why @JPNadda has said alliance will continue in TN.

It's common sense that if the opposition to Stalin is split, it will give DMK easy victory. He will be tempted to give Congress more seats.
Now let's see why Annamalai has spoken. There could be two reasons:

1. He has made up his mind about going solo
2. Like what Ponnar did last time, Annamalai is signalling to AIADMK that BJP can split the votes and ensure AIADMK does not win too many seats therefore forcing EPS
to give BJP good share of seats, early enough so that BJP can do the field work starting now.

In my view, Annamalai is too straightforward a man to play the second option. Besides, he cannot take his words back if he finally has to backtrack based on what Central BJP decides.
So, it is highly likely that he is speaking his mind out.

Central BJP may not like this, but I am sure Annamalai is able to convince them. If you have to give a dream to TN people, of a clean state, you have to remain clean.

I am FULLY with Annamalai on this.
I firmly believe Annamalai's goal is not 2024 LS. It is 2026 TN Assembly.

3 years for the state Assembly elections, BJP in TN needs to test its strength and grow as an alternative to Kazhakam system and reign in TN.

Why did Annamalai choose this time to say this? Why not wait?
Reason: His #Nadaipayanam has to give something to people. Some hope of change. Something to look forward to.

He has to sow the seeds of hope, of change. #Nadapayanam will be wasted if he cannot offer a radical idea of change.

I was expecting something like this all the way.
As I have written (many times) before, EPS does not like Annamalai and sees him as his number 1 threat.

Knowing this, Annamalai cannot compromise and form alliance pledging his conscience. He has also understood that AIADMK has lost its power.

Where does this leave Central BJP?
This is clearly a tradeoff between Congress Mukth Bhārath and BJP entering and conquering a new state.

As a political observer, here is my view.

~ Central BJP should strike a deal with Stalin to ensure minimum seats to Congress for the LS elections.
This will be tough as Congress will open up its purse whereas BJP will have to employ other tactics.

~ BJP should still be in a position to form an alliance in LS and RS post 2024 elections. This way, they can fight in the state but can vote for major reforms at the centre.
~ Erode formula has changed TN politics forever.

If Central BJP forces Annamalai to go with AIADMK which is DMK with an A, then he has no locus standi in 2026 as a challenger to Stalin or to EPS himself.

TN is a risky state as it is the Hub of anti-national forces.
The sooner you let BJP come to power, the better it is for the entire country.

I am with Annamalai. This is the shaping of not only a leader for TN, but also the next PM.

He cannot have blemish on him. Please consider alternatives for fixing the national interests as said above
and let Annamalai follow his thani vazhi.

He will deliver. People are with him.

He is the only hope for TN. Both Kazhakams may also come together in future and that is not good news for anyone.

@AmitShah @narendramodi @blsanthosh @CTRavi_BJP @rammadhav_ @DattaHosabale

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More from @BaluSreevidya

Mar 17
I view this issue seriously.

While some of the victims of the sting don't deserve my time, I do care about the ones I respect.

Urge you not to judge by what the sting selectively revealed. There is a broader issue behind.

This is about how a counter narrative is broken.

1/6
Karunandihi started controlling the narrative in TN by giving free Television and the the cable network through his nephews.

After two decades, for the first time some journalists started to counter the DK narratives through SM.

These voices were independent and unrelated.
It takes time, money and enormous risk to counter this evil deep state (TJ,LT,EC,Communist,DK).

Just when they were getting successful, something like #Madan happens that will shake their confidence.

It was false premise, offering rewards for consultancy for election strategy.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 11
TN Politics - Note 10

In response to questions on my thread about Nirmal Kumar's exit, here is detailed view of BJP-AIADMK relationship.

~ As I said in Jaipur Dialogue in Jan 2021, EPS had everything to lose in 2021 Assembly Elections. He was seeking re-election as sitting CM.
~ EPS was a good administrator. Given time, he will rise to the stature of JJ and even MGR. He has the cunning, patience, skills, determination, and genuine wish to serve people.

His biggest weakness was L&O. His drawback is that no matter how effective he was, he still was the
product of the DK ideology and ecosystem. So, he let his party's (shared) revenue model allowing his district/ward level leaders to continue to live on extortion, commission, and corruption at the grassroot.

~ Until 2019 LS Elections, EPS did not realise that
Read 19 tweets
Mar 9
EPS is not that low on political acumen to poach BJP leaders. Some people leaving TN BJP isn't the issue.

Focus should be on what they are saying when they leave. There is a pattern.

They are all forced to say the same things which didn't exist until a day before.

1/8
Reason?

Create an impression, and further the narrative against @annamalai_k and make it appear that there is an internal resistance against him.

As I have said before, there is no such plot. It is just some people who have expectations of various kinds that don't align with
the new BJP culture led by @narendramodi and @AmitShah

I don't know if some SM influencers genuinely got deluded or have played their part knowingly,

but the lobby that goes beyond EPS/DMK think consistently beating the drum will get Delhi believe the Goebbelsian narrative.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 5
I respectfully disagree with most views on BJP's position wrt 2024 and 2026 in TN (also Kerala).

Here is my reason:

~ The old world political view of seeing elections as opportunities to grow the party is partially gone. In the Modi-Shah era, growing party is BAU.
~ As I have said many times in Spaces and threads, for LS elections, allies, seats or candidates are decided by central BJP to align with its national plan

which is Congress Mukth Bhārath

~ In TN, this means give maximum scare to Stalin and prompt him to ask all allies to
contest under DMK symbol. This will reduce Congress' seats in LS.

~ To do this, Stalin must believe that his opposition is strong. For that, AIADMK, BJP and other allies should all come together and identify winnable seats and candidates.

~ This naturally means @annamalai_k 's
Read 12 tweets
Feb 8
I waited to see how my country reacted to BBC videos against @narendramodi

It's a relief to see we've travelled a long way from the dark gloomy times of 2000's.

Having been a lone fighter on internet and chat rooms, I will share some early facts on the Godhra plot.

Yes, plot.
1. Modi took office in sheer confidence of making a difference, but his way.

2. He was perturbed with what happened to 57 Karsevaks - women and children included. Just like how he felt sad after Joshi Math now

3. He put this aside and acted like how any responsible CM would.
4. He went extra distance - asking neighbouring states to send their police and others to stop the resultant riot.

5. He was flanked by Congress ruled states who did not send Police or any other help.

6. This was deliberate. Everyone (of them) already knew riot will happen.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 23, 2022
My Notes on Democracy Part 4

Kallakkurichi Mayhem. Who, How, and WHY?

You will remember me calling the mayhem signature mobilisation and trained rioters on the same day.

Slowly, media have started scratching the surface. Now everyone agrees this was planned violence by trained
rioters. But the questions on who is doing this and WHY are still not raised by them.

To crack these, there are three things you must remember from my pinned thread/space talks:

1. Such mobilisations, riots and violence should become everyday affair in India. This is by design.
I wrote in my pinned thread in Feb 2021 about how the middle class will be tired of protracted riots and violence.

Late last year NSA Ajith Doval said the same thing. He said the war will now be taken to the Civic societies by the enemies of the state.
Read 25 tweets

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