Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Mar 19, 2023 27 tweets 13 min read Read on X
Here comes the thread about anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) guidance systems 🧵:

Thursday I did a thread about ATGM warheads & a thread about non-guided anti-tank rockets like the AT4 or Panzerfaust 3 (I will link these threads below); but now it's time for the big ones.
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Let's begin with the Semi-Automatic Command to Line Of Sight (SACLOS) missiles, which we have to divide in two groups:

Direct attack:
🇺🇸 TOW, TOW-2A
🇫🇷 Milan, Eryx
🇷🇺 Konkurs, Metis-M, Metis, Fagot

Overfly top attack:
🇺🇸 TOW-2B
🇸🇪 BILL, BILL 2
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Simplified explanation of Semi-Automatic Command to Line Of Sight:

• "Semi" = the gunner has to aim at the target / keep it in his line of sight from launch to impact.
• "Automatic Command" = the launch unit tracks the missile and automatically sends steering commands to
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the missile to align it with the gunner's line of sight to the target.

The missile is tracked via an infrared beacon at the rear of the missile. In older missiles this was a simple flare activated at missile launch. As flares can be easily jammed by an enemy infrared source
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modern missiles use infrared or electronic-flash lamps, which blink at coded frequencies randomly chosen by the launch unit.
TOWs, like this one used in Syria, use a Xenon beacon as short-wave infrared tracking source & a high-intensity thermal beacon as long-wave tracking
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source.
The steering commands are sent from the launch unit to the missile via a wire: either a thin copper or steel wire, which unravels from the missile during flight.

A short clip of a French Milan training ground, where you can see dozens of wires in the grass.
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TOW missiles use two 3,750m long steel cables (the new RF variant uses a one-way radio link). Wires can't be jammed, but they can be entangled by trees or other obstacles.

SACLOS is a proven design, but with a few drawbacks: in smaller missile designs the wires limit the
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range and for the duration of the flight the operator has to remain exposed to aim at the target, like this Ukrainian Milan operator.

To guarantee a stable line of sight most SACLOS missiles come with a heavy tripod, which is why i.e. the US Army today uses TOW missiles on
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on Humvee, Strykers, and Bradleys. If you look closely at these TOW missiles, you will see they have different cone shapes: direct-attack TOW-2A and overfly top attack TOW-2B missiles.

TOW-2A missiles have a extendedible probe with a precursor warhead to defeat Explosive
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Reactive Armor before the main HEAT warhead is detonated.
TOW-2B missiles have a sensor unit at the front, which uses laser profilometers and a magnetic sensor to recognize when it flies over the target and then detonates the missile's two Tantalum EFP warheads.
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If you have not yet read my thread about HEAT and EFP warheads, below is the link to it:

Overfly top attack missiles like the TOW, BILL, and BILL 2 have the advantage that an enemy target doesn't need to be fully visible for them to hit it.
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This is especially useful against an enemy that has built fortifications, behind which tanks can hide in hull down position like this Leclerc:

Fire at the visible part and SACLOS will steer the missile 1 m above the line of sight until the sensors detect the tank below.
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Another way to destroy hull down tanks are top attack missiles:

Fire & Forget:
🇺🇸 Javelin

Fire & Forget / Fire, Observe & Update:
🇮🇱 Spike (MR, LR, ER)
🇫🇷 Akeron

The Javelin is the only pure Fire & Forget anti-tank guided missile. Once the Javelin's Command Launch Unit
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has acquired a target the Javelin launches and its gimbal mounted imaging infrared seeker automatically pursues the target.
Meanwhile the Javelin rises to 160m, flies towards the target, and once above it dives onto to it and detonates its tandem HEAT warhead.
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The drawback of the Javelin is that the operator needs to have a clear line of sight to the target before launch, but one of the main advantages of the Javelin is that the operator can immediately get up and take cover once the missiles is launched.
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The Spike and Akeron can be used as a Fire & Forget missile too... but their main advantage is that they can lock on at a target after launch.
After launch both missiles rise in the air and their gimbal mounted infrared/CCD sensors acquire video of the battlefield, which is
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sent back to the launch unit through a unraveling optical fiber cable. (Spike ER missiles have an 8 (!) km cable.)

Here is a video of Azerbaijani Spike gunners flying over Armenian units, picking out the most valuable targets, and guiding their missiles onto these targets.
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That Israel forbids European nations to deliver some of their 20,000 Spike missiles to Ukraine is disgusting and hampers Ukrainian combat capability.

Now to the only true laser beam riding anti-tank guided missile. The russian Kornet. Laser beam riding requires a direct
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line of sight to the target and the operator has to keep aiming the laser at the target until impact.
And it is not really a laser beam, it's more like a laser grid and a laser receiver at the end of the missile determines the missile's position within that grid. The missile
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then calculates the required steering commands to move itself to the grid's center, which aligns with the operator's line of sight to the target.

Supposedly also Ukraine's Corsar and Stugna-P missiles are laser beam riding... but publicly available info is contradictory
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and the missiles' design seems to point to both being laser-guided SACLOS missiles.

All Luch Design Bureau missiles have a laser receiver and an infrared beacon at the rear, as i.e. the 130mm & 152mm Skif/Stugna-P missiles in this photo (right side: upper and lower missile)
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This makes it likely that Ukraine's own ATGMs use the laser (instead of a wire) to send steering commands calculated by the launch unit to the missiles.

If this assumption is correct then neither Corsar nor Stugna-P are laser beam riding missiles. If anyone has more info,
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that can be shared without damaging operational security - please comment below this thread.

Now to our last two guided missiles: the Spike SR and NLAW.
Both are shoulder launched, short range, fire and forget systems. The main difference is that the NLAW is an overfly top
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attack missile, which fires a Tantalum EFP warhead downward, while the Spike SR is a direct attack missile, which uses a tandem HEAT warhead.
Both use optical and magnetic sensors to ignite detonation, with the NLAW having downward looking laser sensors and the Spike SR
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having forward looking infrared sensors. Due to their short range both systems have limited, automatic steering to compensate for the possible movement of a target. Both systems could be described as the Javelin's little Fire & Forget siblings.

This almost concludes my
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my infantry anti-tank weapons threads. If you have not yet read my anti-tank rockets and countermeasures (ERA, NERA, ceramics, etc) thread, the link is here below.

If you want to know more, tonight I will be on the @MriyaReport talking for a few
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hours about artillery, anti-tank weapons, air combat, air defense, combined arms, tank warfare, mechanized infantry tactics, missile artillery, and all other aspects of modern war, which Ukraine will use to liberate the South this spring.

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More from @noclador

Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
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troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
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Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
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This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


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and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
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Read 41 tweets
Sep 4
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

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These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
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of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
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Read 36 tweets
Sep 1
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
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As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
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(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
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Read 39 tweets
Aug 18
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
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backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
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in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
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Read 14 tweets
Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
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This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12 Image
Image
This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
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Read 12 tweets

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