In today's #vatniksoup I'll be talking about genocide, children and national trauma. Throughout the 20th century, both in the Soviet Union and in Russia children have been suffering because of bad politics and structural negligence & now the kidnapped children face the same.
1/17
Last November I wrote about the genocide that Russia is conducting in Ukraine through forced abductions of children, cultural appropriation and outright mass killing of civilians:
It's not the first time they have done this, however, as the Soviet leaders killed 3,5 - 5 million Ukrainians through organized famine referred to as Holodomor. 1,7 million children died as a result of this horrible event.
3/17
On 18 Mar, 2023, ICC judges finally issued an international warrant on Vladimir Putin and his child abductor sidekick, Maria Lvova-Belova. In the Russian-Orwellian world, Lvova-Belova has been acting as Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights in Russia since 2021.
4/17
They both are allegedly responsible for unlawful deportation and transfer of children. Ukrainian government-ran "Children of War" estimates that over 16 000 children have been forcefully abducted to Russia.
5/17
The reason for these kidnappings is simple - Russia is in a demographic death spiral, and the country simply needs more children. Since 2016, Russia's death rate has exceeded its birth rate, and now a large numbers of young men are dying in the war. In 2020,their fertility..
6/17
...rate was 1.5, which is well below the replacement average. Researcher Murray Feshbach has predicted that by conservative estimate Russia will lose at least a third of its current population due to disease, environmental hazards, war and decline in healthy newborns.
7/17
For long time, Russia has struggled with problems such as AIDS, alcoholism and low life expectancy. At the same time, Russia is suffering of serious brain drain and lose of human capital to other countries due to the war and mobilization.
8/17
This is why they are now trying to increase their younger demographic by kidnapping Ukrainian children. If continued, this genocide will have devastating effects on Ukraine, a country that has one of the lowest birthrates (1,22 before the war in 2020) in all of Europe.
9/17
And historically speaking, Soviet Union and Russia hasn't been very gentle on its children. By the early 1920s, Russia had millions of orphaned and abandoned children, called besprizornye ("the unattended").
10/17
Millions died, and many turned to stealing, prostitution and petty crime. In a 1920 survey among street girls aged 15 and younger, 88% had worked as prostitutes.
After 1937, when the persecution of political enemies peaked and millions were imprisoned or executed, ...
11/17
...several hundreds of thousand children became orphans, and the government was forced to confront the problem.
Narkompros, the ministry of education, organized orphanages that were usually ran by criminals and other lowlife. Orphans were often beat, underfed and abused.
12/17
Because they were the children of the "enemies of the people", nobody really cared. Children were also sent to gulags, where they usually resided in the most harsh conditions. This was due to their low productivity in hard labor.
13/17
After the end of WW2, there were 2,5 million homeless children in need of accommodation. But after this, the Soviet system tried to take better care of its children, and wide scale adoption became a new norm.
14/17
These "better times" lasted until the mid-80s, after which the slow dissolution of the USSR increased the number of homeless children and orphans again. In the Soviet times, the abortion rates also skyrocketed, decreasing the birth rates even more drastically.
15/17
During the crazy 90's and the rebirth of the Russian Federation, many children turned to begging, petty crime and prostitution again. Many of them eventually turned into organized crime, working for crime bosses like Semyon Mogilevich.
16/17
From these past events we can see that those who suffer the most in Russia during times of trouble, are the children. The war in Ukraine can be seen as such event, and all children, including the ones abducted from Ukraine, will be suffering the most from Russia's defeat.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the autocratic concept of “Good Tsar, Bad Boyars”: the idea that the leader is wise and just, but constantly sabotaged by corrupt advisors. This narrative shields the ruler from blame, and it’s used by both Putin and Trump today.
1/20
The phrase “Good Tsar, Bad Boyars” (Царь хороший, бояре плохие), also known as Naïve Monarchism, refers to a long-standing idea in Russian political culture: the ruler is good and benevolent, but his advisors are corrupt, incompetent and responsible for all failures.
2/20
From this perception, any positive action taken by the government is viewed as being an accomplishment of the benevolent leader, whereas any negative one is viewed as being caused by lower-level bureaucrats or “boyars”, without the approval of the leader.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian politician and First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, Sergey Kiriyenko. He’s best known for running both domestic and foreign disinformation and propaganda operations for the Kremlin.
1/20
On paper, and in photos, Kiriyenko is just as boring as most of the Kremlin’s “political technologists”: between 2005-2016 he headed the Rosatom nuclear energy company, but later played a leading role in the governance of Russia-occupied territories in Ukraine.
2/20
What is a political technologist? In Russia, they’re spin doctors & propaganda architects who shape opinion, control narratives, and manage elections — often by faking opposition, staging events, and spreading disinfo to maintain Putin’s power and the illusion of democracy.
Let me show you how a Pakistani (or Indian, they're usually the same) AI slop farm/scam operates. The account @designbonsay is a prime example: a relatively attractive, AI-generated profile picture and a ChatGPT-style profile description are the first red flags.
1/5
The profile's posts are just generic engagement farming, usually using AI-generated photos of celebrities or relatively attractive women.
These posts are often emotionally loaded and ask the user to interact with them ("like and share if you agree!").
2/5
Then there's the monetization part. This particular account sells "pencil art", which again are just AI-generated slop.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American lawyer and politician, Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee). He’s best-known for opposing the aid to Ukraine, undermining NATO by calling the US to withdraw from the alliance, and for fighting with a bunch of braindead dogs online.
1/21
Like many of the most vile vatniks out there, “Based Mike” is a lawyer by profession. He hails from the holy land of Mormons, Utah, where he faces little political competition, allowing him to make the most outrageous claims online without risking his Senate seat.
2/21
Before becoming a senator, Mike fought to let a nuclear waste company dump Italian radioactive waste in Utah, arguing it was fine if they just diluted it. The state said no, the public revolted, and the courts told poor Mikey to sit down.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American national security policy professional and the current under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby). He’s best-known for fighting with cartoon dogs online and for halting military aid to Ukraine.
1/21
Elbridge "Cheese" Colby earned his bachelor’s degree from Yale and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Before entering government, he worked at top think tanks and in the intelligence community, focusing on nuclear policy and strategic planning.
2/21
Cheese quickly became a key voice for a “China First” strategy, arguing the US must prioritize military buildup in Asia over commitments in Europe or the Middle East. He sees (or saw, rather) Taiwan as the core test of US credibility.