In today's #vatniksoup I'll be talking about genocide, children and national trauma. Throughout the 20th century, both in the Soviet Union and in Russia children have been suffering because of bad politics and structural negligence & now the kidnapped children face the same.
1/17
Last November I wrote about the genocide that Russia is conducting in Ukraine through forced abductions of children, cultural appropriation and outright mass killing of civilians:
It's not the first time they have done this, however, as the Soviet leaders killed 3,5 - 5 million Ukrainians through organized famine referred to as Holodomor. 1,7 million children died as a result of this horrible event.
3/17
On 18 Mar, 2023, ICC judges finally issued an international warrant on Vladimir Putin and his child abductor sidekick, Maria Lvova-Belova. In the Russian-Orwellian world, Lvova-Belova has been acting as Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights in Russia since 2021.
4/17
They both are allegedly responsible for unlawful deportation and transfer of children. Ukrainian government-ran "Children of War" estimates that over 16 000 children have been forcefully abducted to Russia.
5/17
The reason for these kidnappings is simple - Russia is in a demographic death spiral, and the country simply needs more children. Since 2016, Russia's death rate has exceeded its birth rate, and now a large numbers of young men are dying in the war. In 2020,their fertility..
6/17
...rate was 1.5, which is well below the replacement average. Researcher Murray Feshbach has predicted that by conservative estimate Russia will lose at least a third of its current population due to disease, environmental hazards, war and decline in healthy newborns.
7/17
For long time, Russia has struggled with problems such as AIDS, alcoholism and low life expectancy. At the same time, Russia is suffering of serious brain drain and lose of human capital to other countries due to the war and mobilization.
8/17
This is why they are now trying to increase their younger demographic by kidnapping Ukrainian children. If continued, this genocide will have devastating effects on Ukraine, a country that has one of the lowest birthrates (1,22 before the war in 2020) in all of Europe.
9/17
And historically speaking, Soviet Union and Russia hasn't been very gentle on its children. By the early 1920s, Russia had millions of orphaned and abandoned children, called besprizornye ("the unattended").
10/17
Millions died, and many turned to stealing, prostitution and petty crime. In a 1920 survey among street girls aged 15 and younger, 88% had worked as prostitutes.
After 1937, when the persecution of political enemies peaked and millions were imprisoned or executed, ...
11/17
...several hundreds of thousand children became orphans, and the government was forced to confront the problem.
Narkompros, the ministry of education, organized orphanages that were usually ran by criminals and other lowlife. Orphans were often beat, underfed and abused.
12/17
Because they were the children of the "enemies of the people", nobody really cared. Children were also sent to gulags, where they usually resided in the most harsh conditions. This was due to their low productivity in hard labor.
13/17
After the end of WW2, there were 2,5 million homeless children in need of accommodation. But after this, the Soviet system tried to take better care of its children, and wide scale adoption became a new norm.
14/17
These "better times" lasted until the mid-80s, after which the slow dissolution of the USSR increased the number of homeless children and orphans again. In the Soviet times, the abortion rates also skyrocketed, decreasing the birth rates even more drastically.
15/17
During the crazy 90's and the rebirth of the Russian Federation, many children turned to begging, petty crime and prostitution again. Many of them eventually turned into organized crime, working for crime bosses like Semyon Mogilevich.
16/17
From these past events we can see that those who suffer the most in Russia during times of trouble, are the children. The war in Ukraine can be seen as such event, and all children, including the ones abducted from Ukraine, will be suffering the most from Russia's defeat.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the agenda-setting and flood of disinformation that spread on X and other platforms right after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. It’s far from the first or last time a tragedy has been weaponized for political purposes.
1/18
Every major political event, especially those involving violence, attracts massive attention. In the immediate aftermath, reliable information is scarce, making it highly vulnerable to both coordinated and improvised disinformation campaigns.
2/18
As I’ve mentioned in my previous soups and lectures, in disinformation campaigns, being first with a narrative is crucial, as people often remember the first version best — psychology studies show it sets the mental schema, and later updates rarely overwrite it.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American social media personality David Freeman, AKA Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman). He’s best known for spreading political disinformation on X and shamelessly sucking up to Trump, Putin, and other authoritarian leaders.
1/22
David is a textbook example of someone profiting from MAGA grievance politics. He uses extreme, provocative language to farm engagement on X and never hesitates to flatter anyone who might give him more exposure — or money.
2/22
But David wasn’t always like this. At some point, in his mid-40s, he even tried a real job: he trained to become a cop. He spent three years with the Metro Transit PD, but after that he either got fired or quit, and never looked back.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.
1/14
Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.
2/14
Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Swiss/French writer, Alain Bonnet, aka Alain Soral (@officielsoral). He’s best known for his rabid antisemitism and for his pathetic support for all the worst authoritarian regimes from Russia to North Korea.
1/22
Alain’s childhood was problematic, as his father has been characterized as a “narcissistic pervert” who beat his children and did jail time for fraud. Alain himself has said he was “programmed to be a monster.” Born Alain Bonnet, he took the stage name of his sister,…
2/22
… actress Agnès Soral. She wasn’t too happy about this, commenting “How would you like to be called Agnès Hitler?”. Like many grifters, he became a pick-up/seduction artist writer, à la late Gonzalo Lira, writing books and even making a B-movie, “Confessions d’un dragueur”.
3/22
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explain the Alaska Fiasco and how it marks the peak of Trump’s two-year betrayal of Ukraine. What was sold as “peace talks” turned into a spectacle of weakness, humiliation, empty promises, and photo-ops that handed Putin exactly what he wanted.
1/24
Let’s start with the obvious: Trump desperately wants the gold medal of the Nobel Peace Prize, mainly because Obama got one. That’s why he’s now LARPing as a “peace maker” in every conflict: Israel-Gaza, Azerbaijan-Armenia, India-Pakistan, and of course Ukraine-Russia.
2/24
Another theory is that Putin holds kompromat — compromising material such as videos or documents — that would put Trump in an extremely bad light. Some have suggested it could be tied to the Epstein files or Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll talk about engagement farming: a cynical social media tactic to rack up likes, shares, and comments. From rage farming to AI-powered outrage factories, engagement farming is reshaping online discourse and turning division into profit.
1/23
Engagement farming is a social media tactic aimed at getting maximum likes, shares, and comments, with truth being optional. It thrives on provocative texts, images, or videos designed to spark strong reactions, boost reach, and turn online outrage into clicks and cash.
2/23
One subset of engagement farming is rage farming: a tactic built to provoke strong negative emotions through outrageous or inflammatory claims. By triggering anger or moral outrage, these posts often generate 100s or even 1,000s of heated comments, amplifying their reach.