So, Flo Debarre et al’s raccoon dog analysis that has caused such a media frenzy has been released and what does it show ?
Not much 🧵
2/ Essentially, it confirms Gao et al’s preprint analysis that there was nuc acid from animals in addition to humans in the samples 👇 (no surprise there)
It adds some species specific info
3/ The analysis is crude, and taxonomic attribution method naïve
They rely on seq assembly, which miss a lot of info
They use numbers of assembled contigs as a metric for quantity of species specific material
This is semi-quantitative at best (due to the vagaries of assembly)
4/ Even then, they fail to see if the species specific material correlates with numbers of SARS2 reads, which is inexplicable
5/ They apparently identify a potentially new subspecies of raccoon dog – this would worth following up for forensic purposes, but bafflingly they fail to do so
6/ But they also seem to identify new subspecies of masked palm civet, hoary bamboo rat, Malayan porcupine and Amur hedgehog. This could be interesting, or more likely indicates problems with their assembly. Oddly, they fail to follow this up and validate their assembly qualities
7/ Bizarrely, they seem unable to differentiate between DNA and RNA (hint, trying mapping reads to annotated mito genome or nuc genome). This has importance as it can affect estimates of relative species proportions
8/ Tellingly, none of the stalls with raccoon dog nuc acid have a human SARS2 case linked to it (which puzzlingly they fail to mention)
(figure on left from our HSM Zoonosis critique, on right from Debarre et al)
9/ This saga is a case study in the perils of making grandiose claims without having completed the analysis, and of the hubris to embark into a new subject area without specialists (metagenomic) to scrutinize and suggest robust analyses
Update on the 2025 Spanish African Swine Fever outbreak
Lab escape is not ruled out, no evidence of natural zoonosis
Biased 'official' reports can poison LLMs, beware 🧵
1/ On 25–26 Nov 2025 2 boar infected with African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) were found within 1 km of each other in Catalonia, one a few hundred meters from BSL3 facility IRTA-CReSA (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries - Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)
2/ The facility is located at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) and works with ASFV. Given this is the first ASF outbreak in 30 years in Spain, and there are no current outbreaks in neighboring France, IRTA-CReSA is an obvious candidate source of the outbreak
@RepHarshbarger @SenJoniErnst 1/ Infectious clones (ICs) are synthetic viruses produced by transfecting a cell line with a plasmid construct that contains the virus genome
The cell line expresses the virus, which can then be recovered
(from ZLS's 2016 WIV1 IC paper):
2/ Using ICs is a way of resurrecting extinct viruses, or recovering novel viruses from metagenomic or transcriptomic datasets. It can also be used to genetically modify viruses by introducing novel mutations or creating chimeras, which result in dangerous Gain of Function
I've inscribed my preprint that links the WIV to a leaked dGOF MERS chimera, onto censor-resistant bitcoin following @Kevin_McKernan 's #DeSci method 🧵
Tx ID b14860b04d16ec1a90b8c701da0889b49e17efbb819f85eafe99954270bf7322
@JesslovesMJK @MartyBent @TFTC21 @JonnieSparkles 1/ The pandemic saw the rise of gatekeeping of inconvenient research on C19 origin and vaccines, and other pandemic topics, by centralized preprint servers
This is a classic signaling game with a jammer :
2/ How are preprint servers centralized you may ask ? Some receive federal funding, their screeners typically receive federal funding, many wealthy donors have benefitted from Fed QE. They claim to be 'independent', in a similar way that Celsius was 'decentralized'
Zhengli Shi of the WIV constructed a dangerous Gain of Function MERS chimera that contaminated pre-pandemic rice sequence datasets from Wuhan
Potential violation of the Biological Weapons Convention
NIAID + USAID provided funding Parallels with SARS2 🧵 #DRASTIC
@RepBradWenstrup @DrJBhattacharya @joniernst 1/ In this thread, I'll show that a dangerous Gain of Function chimera, involving insertion of MERS spike into a novel merbecovirus backbone, can be positively attributed to Zhengli Shi of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and that NIAID + USAID funds contributed to its creation
2/ A preprint describing the analysis has been 'on hold' for almost 3 weeks at arxiv, in another case of suppression of 'alert' reports.
A link between MERS-CoV pathogenicity and epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) was described in a 2016 proposal by Luis Enjuanes, collaborator of Baric h/t @USRightToKnow
Coincidentally, the human α-ENaC furin cleavage site (FCS) is identical to that of SARS2 🧵
2/ As far back as 2009 it was known that SARS1 spike and E proteins interacted with human ENaC, modulating its activity leading to fluid buildup in the lungs
Fluid buildup (pulmonary edema) is a key symptom of both SARS1 and SARS2