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Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

May 17

Trump has become the War Lord and Now Targets Cuba

How has someone who never built their political career as a hawk changed so drastically, transforming into a war lord?
After an operation in Venezuela to arrest Maduro and cement a coup d’état, Trump alongside Netanyahu, attacked and assassinated Iranian leaders while they were still at the negotiating table.

The war has been a disaster for the American leader, but that hasn’t deterred him from opening another front, this time against Cuba.

U.S. intelligence leaked this week that Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels, and possibly Key West, Fla., 150km north of Havana.

With what intent did intelligence gather this information and leak it at the exact moment Trump is set to announce new sanctions on Cuba, right after the CIA Director’s visit? Weeks ago, I saw that American intelligence aviation was collecting data on vessels off the Cuban coast.

I would classify this intelligence report as a “nothing burger” because 300 drones are exhausted in a single day of war, and Cuba has been purchasing drones in small quantities and attempting to modernize thier forces for years. Furthermore, if Cuba hasn’t attacked Guantanamo in over 60 years, why would they do it now? This leads me to believe there is a move to construct a “Cuban threat to the U.S.” to drum up support for military action.

With the disastrous military operation in Iran underway and no prospects for victory, Trump wants to use Cuba to reshape his image and head into the elections as a winner. After all, a military action in Cuba is far less complex than in Iran, with much higher chances of success.

But what would Donald Trump be capable of building outside of conflicts? In what ways has his administration improved the lives of Americans? The ballot boxes will answer that question.

Yet, the misunderstood fact remains: how was Trump, who never had a militaristic bias, so quickly co-opted and transformed into a highly aggressive hawk? What does this actually reveal about the American power structure? Without a doubt, this says a lot to Americans who know how to analyze this picture. There is no break in the system; there is only the system making new HR acquisitions.

Full Article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…

https://x.com/juliettekayyem/status/2056062020022104370?s=46

She is right

https://x.com/juliettekayyem/status/2056062020022104370?s=46

https://x.com/aidansimardone/status/2056075861091135922?s=46

https://x.com/aidansimardone/status/2056075861091135922?s=46

Read 5 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

May 4

The UAE doubles down, risking the social contract

On May 3rd, Iran confirmed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) used fighter jets to bomb Iranian territory.

This comes weeks after Iran downed at least four Chinese-made Wing Loong drones. At that time, Tehran was uncertain whether the drones belonged to the UAE or Saudi Arabia, as both operate the same model.

Today, Iran confirmed that the UAE has fully entered the war, deploying both drones and manned aircraft.

Until now, the Emirati regime had denied any offensive collaboration with the coalition. In the first week of the war, Abu Dhabi claimed it had not authorized the use of its soil or airspace for strikes against Iran. This proved to be a mere performance.

As soon as Iran began targeting HIMARS positions on UAE soil, hundreds of American soldiers sought refuge in hotels across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Ras Al Khaimah.

In recent weeks, the UAE has stopped hiding its collaboration with Israel. During the recent truce, Emirati officials attended a meeting in Israel alongside the Commander of CENTCOM. By doing so, the UAE sealed its role as Israel’s staunch ally, a stance that goes beyond military cooperation and is marked by a deep diplomatic rupture with Saudi Arabia.

The UAE now finds itself in a geopolitical sandwich: Iran to its front, Saudi Arabia at its rear, and Qatar, with whom relations were only recently restored, at its side. This posture, dictated by Abu Dhabi, is extremely dangerous on economic, military, and social levels.

The UAE was built on a Social Contract: the government provides wealth, security, and world-class services in exchange for absolute political loyalty.

This contract depends on a strong economy; as long as prosperity is guaranteed, most citizens accept foreign policy decisions, even if they disagree with them.

Currently, the greatest social risk is religious, the fear that the alliance with Israel will be perceived as a betrayal of Islam. To mitigate this, Abu Dhabi invests heavily in the narrative of Moderate Islam and coexistence (exemplified by the Abrahamic Family House), attempting to reframe the alliance as a tool for peace rather than war.

All this occurs while the UAE maintains one of the world’s most sophisticated internal surveillance systems, ensuring any organized dissent is neutralized before it gains momentum.

The UAE has decided to bet everything against Iran, but why is this a high-stakes gamble? Because no one expects regime change in Iran anymore. On the contrary, the Iranian government appears solid. This is where Abu Dhabi’s strategy begins to threaten its own survival.

The UAE is now Iran’s primary target. In a possible second phase of the war, the scale of the Iranian retaliatory strike will be devastating now that they have confirmed Emirati jets are bombing Iranian facilities. Even looking toward the future, this move may be the final nail in the coffin for everything the UAE has built.

Full article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…

For strategic reasons, Iran has not yet revealed everything it knows about the UAE’s involvement in attacks on its territory.

The situation created will not simply disappear even if a peace deal is reached. It has already reached a point where it dismantles the core foundations of security, stability, and investor confidence, the very triad the Emirates have spent years investing in and building their national existence upon.

Any country that relies on this triad must avoid conflicts at all costs and pursue diplomatic solutions the moment they appear.

In my view, the Emirates’ current policy of isolation within the regional landscape looks like a suicidal move.

I don’t see any risk of secession within the UAE, since Iran poses a direct threat to all member states, not to mention the territorial disputes involved.

There may be some retreat from the alliance with Israel, but any rapprochement with Iran is extremely unlikely.

The situation is clearly moving toward a prolonged and persistent state of animosity that threatens the entire Gulf’s prosperity.

Read 4 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

Apr 9

How many missiles does Iran stilll have?

During the 12-day war, I estimated Iran’s missile stockpile at around 20,000, based on the number of different models and the years they entered production. Of that total, I calculated approximately 7,000 to 8,000 ballistic missiles and 12,000 to 13,000 cruise missiles, including both units in service and those in reserve.

Iran began mass-producing ballistic missiles in the early 1990s, starting with the Shahab-2, which was produced for about 15 years, and the Shahab-3, manufactured from 2004 to 2008 before being replaced by more modern systems.

These were lower-precision missiles, which is why, in 2015, Iran launched a major refurbishment and modernization program for these old stocks, replacing guidance systems and warheads.

Today, there are certainly still a few thousand of these older missiles in reserve, and I do count them.
Around 2010, Iran was already producing about 12 different models of ballistic and cruise missiles.

If we assume a conservative average production rate of roughly 100 units per model per year, taking into account multiple parallel production lines, that alone would give Iran, over the last 15 years, an arsenal exceeding 17,000 missiles.

The picture becomes even clearer when we look at 2015 onward. At that time, Iranian production lines were operating with at least 8 to 12 models with ranges over 1,000 km. Cruise missiles like the Soumar and Meshkat already had ranges exceeding 2,000 km, as did about 7 to 10 variants of two-stage solid-fuel ballistic missiles such as the Emad, Sejjil, and others.

In other words, Iran spent at least 10 years producing on a significant scale 8 to 12 models of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Israel.

Russia, even while fighting a full-scale war in Ukraine, produces around 2,500 precision missiles per year. There is simply no logic in claiming that Iran, after more than 30 years of dedicated missile production with multiple active lines, had only 2,500 missiles in stockpile as of February, as many Western think tanks claim.
These estimates consistently understate Iran’s real industrial capacity.

Iran has an entire ecosystem of public companies, private firms, and startups, with more than 300 companies dedicated to the missiles sector, out of a total of another 6,500 that support the country’s defense in various areas.

Read full article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…

To give you an idea of what I’m talking about, on August 4, 2024, North Korea held an official commissioning ceremony for 250 mobile launchers of the KN-24 short-range tactical ballistic missile.

Since each launcher carries 4 missiles, this represented exactly 1,000 new missiles in a single event.

The Iranian industry is three times the size of North Korea’s, which does not involve private companies or startups.

thediplomat.com/2024/08/commis…

North Korea has around 180 companies supplying defense. It’s a much smaller ecossistem than Iran.

Read 5 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

Apr 5

The possible nuclear dimension of the war cannot be overlooked

And if Iran had not yet produced a weapon by February, after that it would have every reason to do so, and with the technology it possesses and North Korean assistance, it would be a relatively quick.

I recently wrote about the possibility of Iran already possessing a nuclear weapon and the risks that this could lead to various outcomes.

One of them: ‘That would completely upend the Middle East board, starting with Saudi launching its own program, as it has repeatedly said it would do if Iran ever developed a nuclear weapon.’

But if Iran already has a nuclear weapon, why hasn’t it revealed it? The answer might lie in the fact that they are uncertain about the reactions from Israel and the U.S., who could claim the necessity of a preemptive nuclear strike.

Based on various lines of evidence, I have a strong intuition that Iran already possesses this weapon. Furthermore, the intensity of U.S. and Israeli operations, marked by nearly 900 strikes on the Natanz and Fordow complexes, suggests a deliberate attempt to trigger a nuclear disaster.

This is further evidenced by four hits on the Bushehr nuclear power plant, as well as attacks on a heavy water reactor associated with plutonium production and a uranium facility in Yazd.

Iran knows it occupies a privileged strategic position, and bombs will not reverse this situation. The U.S. and Israel have few options left on this board, while political and economic pressure increases daily.

This lack of alternatives may be creating a scenario where it is becoming increasingly likely that a nuclear disaster will occur.

IF that happens, Iran will likely respond by attacking the Dimona reactor in Israel, which will trigger a nuclear war, with Israel fulfilling its ‘dream’ of nuking Iran. The outcome is that this could trigger the same response from Iran, and I will explain how this would occur.

Iran’s nuclear program began in the 1950s but took on a military dimension in the 1980s-2000s through the AMAD project. U.S. intelligence assessed a formal suspension in 2003, yet in the two decades since, Iran has had more than enough time to make steady investments, longer than it took Pakistan (10-15 years).

After the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran sharply accelerated its efforts, and by 2025 it had the capability to produce a weapon in days or weeks.

Read the full article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…

https://twitter.com/nstrike1231/status/2041243500029657567

We are on the way

https://twitter.com/nstrike1231/status/2041243500029657567

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/2041179848878473217

BBC also working to move the nuclear window

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/2041179848878473217

Read 6 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

Mar 28

Iranian Technology Goes Far Beyond Missiles

The country rank in the global 5 in six critical technologies

Iran has established itself as a major power in missiles, but this is only the tip of the iceberg. The country also competes with global powers in several other technological markets.

Although it still faces historical bottlenecks in investment in basic sectors, resulting in critical deficits in electricity generation and potable water supply, the situation is changing. Iran has woken up to these vulnerabilities and is now directing billions of dollars toward restructuring its essential infrastructure.

However, it still needs to prove that domestic infrastructure is a higher priority than funding militias in foreign territories.
The most impressive phenomenon, however, is occurring in the field of knowledge.

Just a few years ago, anyone who predicted that Iran would surpass powers such as Germany, Japan, and India in frontier areas like nanotechnology would have been laughed at. Today, the data confirms that this is the new geopolitical reality of science.

When we examine indicators such as SCImago Journal & Country Rank, StatNano, Web of Science, Nature Index, and the ASPI Critical Technology Tracker, Iran ranks among the world’s top ten scientific powers in several fields.
Global Research Ranking – Iran (Top 10 Worldwide)

According to consolidated indicators of scientific output and academic impact, Iran belongs to the global elite in the following disciplines:

•Nanotechnology: 4th to 6th place

•Artificial Neural Networks: 6th place

•Industrial Engineering: 7th place

•Aerospace Engineering: 8th place

•Mechanical Engineering: 9th place

•Analytical Chemistry: 9th place

•Surface Science: 9th place

•Energy Engineering: 10th place

(These positions come from a compilation the rankings of SCImago Journal & Country Rank, StatNano, Web of Science, Nature Index, and the ASPI Critical Technology Tracker.)
Strategic Breakdown (ASPI Critical Technology Tracker – 2025 Update)

The ASPI report shows that Iran not only publishes in large volume but also with high impact.

The country ranks in the global top 5 in six critical technologies, including:

Aircraft engines and hypersonics, where it competes directly with major global powers

Biofuels and smart materials, areas in which Iranian scientific production is considered world-class;

Nanomaterials and advanced coatings, directly linking basic science to defense and heavy industry

Smart materials;

All of this has been achieved despite international sanctions, which have ironically helped Iran become one of the fastest-growing nations in technology worldwide.

This progress is driven by an internal ecosystem of elite universities, such as Sharif and Tehran, that have turned isolation into a powerful engine of technical self-sufficiency.

Iran has reached a technological level where, even if it abandoned its current nuclear project, it could restart and complete it in just a few years.

This gives the country the ability to make its own choices and chart its own path.
The West needs to recognize the technological advances Iran has made over the past three decades.

Which Western nation possesses hypersonic missiles with short, medium, and intermediate range? Not even the United States has this capability with fully domestic technology, something Iran has already achieved.

In addition, Iran belongs to the select group of nations capable of manufacturing its own satellites and placing them into orbit using indigenous launch vehicles. However, Iranian technology goes far beyond aerospace.

The country has one of the most vertically integrated automotive supply chains in the world. It does not merely assemble vehicles; it designs and manufactures the majority of their critical components.

In the medical field, Behyar Sanat Sepahan produces linear accelerators for cancer treatment, a technology mastered by very few countries. Iran is also self-sufficient in the production of dialysis machines and filters, which it exports to neighboring countries through the Medisa Consortium.

In surgical robotics, it developed the Sina robot, a remote surgery system similar to the American Da Vinci.

In life support, companies such as Pooyandegan-e-Raho Saadat manufacture ICU ventilators and vital signs monitors exported to more than 40 countries, along with the entire ecosystem of bedside monitors and sensors for coronary and intensive care units

The country produces about 97% of the medicines it consumes, including complex biosimilars for cancer and multiple sclerosis, through major groups such as the Barkat Group.

I do not see how bombings or the wave of assassinations, which has already killed nearly 30 scientists, engineers, and top specialists, could destroy this accumulated knowledge. At most, they can delay progress in various dual-use areas.

During the 12-day war, Iranian universities and research centers were attacked, prompting a missile response against the Weizmann Institute, the IIBR (Ness Ziona), a biological research center linked to the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and the universities of Tel Aviv, Technion, and Ben-Gurion.

No one wins in this kind of confrontation. In a more prolonged escalation, both countries could mutually destroy their scientific infrastructures.

It is essential to stop the war, negotiate with Iran, and begin a long-term project of rapprochement and openness, similar to the West’s historical approach with Turkey.

War was the worst path chosen. The United States has never engaged in an armed conflict against a nation of Iran’s size and technological sophistication.

However, Iran must also take responsibility and mature politically, especially regarding its policy of interference and its relations with its neighbors.

The war shows every sign that these tensions will only deepen in the coming years, particularly in the event of a ground invasion.

Read more articles at :

substack.com/@global21

Read 5 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

Mar 19

My recent Interview

1- t.co/TzuDZn03Lt your analysis of the Strait of Hormuz, you argue that Iran’s geographic and military positioning makes the strait almost impenetrable in the current configuration. From a purely military standpoint, what are the specific capabilities, missiles, mines, drones or terrain advantages, that give Iran such leverage over this chokepoint?

The first point to highlight is the local geography and how effectively Iran exploits it. If you look at a photo of the Strait of Hormuz from the Iranian side, you’ll see the strait is flanked by mountains.

Coupled with this, bathymetric data shows an average depth of 50–70 meters. This makes large vessels and submarines highly vulnerable, while favoring Iranian midget submarines, fast attack crafts (FACs), mines, USVs, and UUVs.

The Iranian arsenal is tailor-made for this type of warfare: ambushing enemies in the strait using midget subs, missile-armed fast boats, surface drones, undersea drones, and anti-ship missiles. Specifically regarding underwater drones, we are talking about modern assets up to 8 meters long, powered by lithium batteries and featuring high-stealth capabilities, such as the Azhdar.

In the last five years alone, the Persians have commissioned between 250 and 300 fast boats equipped with missiles ranging from 25 to 300 km, such as the Ghadir missiles found on modern Zulfiqar-class boats.

Furthermore, Iran appears to have already mined the strait, leaving only a narrow corridor close to its own territory, rendering any transiting vessel extremely vulnerable. Many of these missile and drone positions are housed in 'mini-bunkers' embedded within the mountain ranges flanking the strait. Imagine everything described above supported by aerial drones and anti-ship missiles.

To top it off, in January 2026, the IRGCN revealed a network of undersea missile tunnels and coastal bases designed to deploy fast boats and naval drones from protected shelters.
I do not believe any commander would force entry into that strait.

2 - t.co/spHUGxxMr9 suggest that Iran has been able to dictate the tempo of the conflict while continuing to export oil and influence global markets. Do you believe Tehran is deliberately managing escalation to weaponize uncertainty in energy markets without triggering a full closure of Hormuz?

Yes, and they do so strategically, planning for a protracted war of attrition. With market volatility and surging oil prices, Iran is ramping up political pressure on Trump, who is also facing pushback from Gulf nations suffering billions in losses and a stifled energy industry.

Companies like QatarEnergy have completely halted LNG production, Aramco is operating at half capacity, and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC has significantly scaled back operations. This is not to mention Big Tech and the financial sector, which have also reduced their footprint in the Gulf following Iranian threats.

The Persians are waging an asymmetric war of external and internal politico-economic pressure against their adversaries, to the point where their success is becoming evident. They are managing the generated chaos, biding their time to announce the closure of the other strategic chokepoint, Bab el-Mandeb, via the Houthis.

t.co/IBgUC6qxHl referenced the U.S. military exercise Millennium Challenge 2002 and the tactics used by Paul Van Riper’s “Red Team.” To what extent do you think the Iranian military doctrine today is directly inspired by that kind of asymmetric warfare model?

The Iranian Armed Forces were forged for this very conflict. Today, Iran does not operate medium or long-range radars, lacks intact airbases, and its military is deployed in highly fragmented and camouflaged formations across the territory.
How does Iran operate?

Aircraft take off and land from improvised hangars and airstrips hidden within mountain bases, which also house the bulk of their military hardware. Iran downs drones using its 358 loitering surface-to-air missile, which offers high mobility via small trucks, alongside short-range air defense units (SHORAD) like the Tor-M1 and Dezful. These are deployed selectively, signaling a strategy for a protracted war.

By keeping radars offline, Iran allows the US-Israel coalition to establish air superiority, which I assume is expected within Iranian war planning,focusing on preventing this from escalating into total air supremacy.

Another striking feature of the Iranian asymmetric model is the decentralization of C2 (Command and Control), enabling faster and more resilient response actions against any 'decapitation' strikes.

This model creates a checkmate for the coalition; the US Navy was built to project power through large surface vessels. Against Iran, the US fleet is forced to rely primarily on Tomahawks, stationed at least 700km off the coast, leaving F-18s without the necessary range to strike Iran's central cities.

4. Several Gulf states appear increasingly uncertain about Washington’s security guarantees. Based on what you are observing, do you think the war is accelerating a strategic shift in the region toward China as an alternative security and economic partner?

The region's major powers are already customers of the Chinese arms market, with the exception of Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has elevated its relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and has not only purchased Chinese missiles but also secured a technology transfer agreement with Beijing in this sector.

The UAE operates a vast fleet of Chinese drones, and its leading defense conglomerate, EDGE Group, maintains cooperation agreements with China's Norinco. While I believe the U.S. will remain the dominant power in the region, these nations will increasingly turn to the Chinese as a deterrent against Iran.

The Gulf states have long been a 'honeypot' for the Western defense industry. For instance, Qatar paid over $330 million per unit for the F-15QA Ababil in 2017, while Kuwait paid a similar price for each Eurofighter Typhoon in 2016.

However, as the war broke out, the U.S. not only prioritized Israel but also failed to adequately protect its own bases within these countries, calling into question the entire model of reliance on American security guarantees.

5. If the United States and its allies were to attempt to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz with a naval coalition, what would realistically happen in the first 48 hours of such an operation?

We will likely see heavy bombardment of the Strait's mountains to suppress Iranian firing positions, but also widespread panic at sea, with commanders retreating and ships sinking. This is the scenario I foresee; I find it hard to believe any commander would risk their vessel in that strait, especially without total air dominance or submarine support. Iran maintains a A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) capability over the Strait of Hormuz.

6 - t.co/dZKoALWBjS mention that Iran’s short-range anti-ship missile capacity remains largely intact. How vulnerable are Western naval assets in the Gulf to this type of saturation attack using drones, missiles and fast boats?

Large ships are completely vulnerable. It’s not just the West; any large vessel is now susceptible to drone swarms paired with anti-ship missiles (AShMs), a reality made clear by the war in Ukraine.

This saturation quickly depletes defensive batteries. Even upgraded EW systems like the AN/SLQ-32 have only partial effectiveness; since they rely on homing jamming, they have little to no effect on modern drones and missiles equipped with EO/IR seekers or real-time mid-course guidance.

However, the real threat comes from UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles), which are difficult to detect and highly effective in swarms, especially near the coast.

The Iranian naval arsenal is incredibly diverse and lethal at these ranges, beyond UUVs, Iran also operates supercavitating torpedoes capable of reaching speeds of 360 km/h.

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