The Russians pay half the amount for a 152mm shell compared to what the Germans pay for a 30mm ammo.

A while back, I wrote a post about Rheinmetall selling their Caracal 4x4 to the German government for over $600,000. Recently, I've been looking into the variations in ammunition costs among Western companies.

Rheinmetall is asking for over $600 for a Gepaed 35mm round, which is the same price the Russians are paying for a 152mm artillery round. But it doesn't stop there. Rheinmetall also sold 600,000 30mm rounds to be used in the PUMA IFV for $1,000 each.

In all three of these overpriced sales, the client was the German government. To put it in perspective, the US ordered and paid $108 for each round back in 2017. Obviously, costs vary depending on the type of ammo, but $1,000 for a single 30mm round? This puts a burden on the German taxpayers.

There's a concern that Europe wouldn't be able to sustain a war with these prices. They could bankrupt any country before troops are even prepared for combat. The focus here is not on the quality, but rather the sustainable cost during a real war.
A single medium Cal cannon can fire 5,000 rounds in less than one minute. How can pay that bill?

Yesterday, a video was released on some Russian channels, supposedly recorded in Omsk.

Omsktransmash doesn't work with any MLRS except the TOS-1.

Since June, they haven't been producing new batches of tanks anymore.
Is it now KBTM refurbishing Uragans? Highly unlikely.

These… https://t.co/HZHNgaJR7atwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This potential military collaboration between former Soviet republics and Russia holds significant importance for the outcome of war.

These nations possess a wide range of armored vehicles, hundreds of artillery systems, and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

They boast a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Omsktransmash has finished the modernization of a batch of T-80BVM tanks, which are now on their way to Ukraine.

This marks the second batch of tanks in less than 30 days. The previous batch consisted of T90M tanks.

The frequency and size of these batches confirm my previous… https://t.co/xJsMfYHqvHtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mass production of SOSNA-U devices has indeed put an end to the previous bottleneck in Russia's tank production.

Some months ago, I had discussed the projected waiting time of 2-5 months for these devices. Regrettably, it appears that the allies have missed this window of… https://t.co/spOEBt16jOtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

It appears that The time windows for an attrition war against Russia was missed.

Months ago, I wrote about the three biggest Russian factories idling their production due to a shortage of electronics.

()

Now, the situation is just the opposite. The… https://t.co/GUxFlOOGte https://t.co/XMV8tDch3k

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1638913309217898500?t=leSAzHlybtz3d5PvGgYMNw&s=19

twitter.com/i/web/status/1…


Recent Govt visit to Omsktransmash.

🧵1/11
Patriot still has the same failures as 30y ago.
This thread is specially about the American tax payer, who deserve to spend their money on something that works and a transparent company. These systems cost billions.

Well, to understand this, we must come back to 1991. 2/11
During the 1991 Gulf War, the public was led to believe the that the Patriot had near-perfect performance, intercepting 45 of 47 Scud missiles.
The truth was a system w failures and only 9% of successful interceptions.
The company blamed a software

washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…

1/3
Apparently the US want to test some aspects of IBCS in Ukraine.

The Pentagon sent an
Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD), Battle Command System (IBCS) and an Engagement Operations Center (EOC) for Ukraine.
If it works, would mean huge advance.

breakingdefense.com/2023/04/pentag… 2/3
The IBCS will integrate multiple sensors and weapon systems into a single network, enabling faster decision-making and more efficient engagement of targets in multi-domain battle operations.
A completely independent Fire Control system operating on a powerful radar network.

🧵1/9
Kinzhal and Iskander missiles, something similar, but different.

Both missiles reach hypersonic speed, it means above mach 5.
The Kinzhal is air launched, while the Iskander has ground launchers.

But there is a big difference between them: the flight altitude.

2/9
While the Kinzhal is launched at 20km altitude and keep it's flight maneuvering at that zone, the Iskander fly at 40-50km altitude. It makes the missiles completely different and in distinct levels of interceptions.
E.g the Pac-3 has 35km altitude range; Pac-2 (24km) alt.

🧵1/6
NATO have no other way of not a cobtroled and progressive escalation.

During May (today 29), the Ukrainian air command announced that were intercepted around 530 threats.
The Ukr ADs works with missiles and Self-propelled cannons, but only the Gepard had an efficient radar 2/6
These ADs have some standard engagements. For example if the threat is detected at a short distance e/or a high speed, the engagement is double by standard. Some slower ADs have this rule for every target.

Can 530 interceptions means 1060 missiles? No, it's not so simple.

🧵1/7
Saudi Arabia is investing high to have it's own defense industry.

KSA has made a lot of progress in building up its domestic arms industry, developing land weapons systems, electronics, and smart bombs.
They were the the world’s 2nd largest arms importer in 2018–22. 2/7
I did watch their development in many expos around the world. Their way is very similar to the EDGE group.

(SAMI) is the commercial entity charged with developing Def industry in the kingdom; it has an ambitious goal of producing 50 percent of defense matériel by 2030.

1/3
Ukr got like 60-70 Aircrafts during the last 12 months and had others 40-60 operating after Feb/22.
Even with Harm missiles it didn't change the the air status during the war and most of these were lost.
Everything flying over 200fts die in days/weeks.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 2/3
The whole territory is satured by air defenses. I'm skeptical.

Some people argue that aircrafts like the A-29 and the At-6 wolverine would be much cheaper, able to operate on dirty roads and with a faster maintenance. Maybe better choice.

US/allies have around 120 of these.

🧵1/5
Continuing the question about the RU sattelites and it's fail in provide images about the war.

During the last years RU launched many sattelites. Specially we are talking about the Bars-M/M4 with upgrades.
Nothing justify the absence of images.
space.com/russia-soyuz-l… 2/5
The Russian space program regularly launched sattelites even for the US and other countries.
Since 2015 were launched 4 Bars-M high resolution sattelites. Why they didn't release anything when propaganda is important? Something isn't working.

thehindu.com/sci-tech/scien…

🧵1/6
If Russia destroyed 5 Patriot Batteries, why they didn't released the sattelite images?

I don't care about how many batteries were destroyed, but I want to talk about the failures of Russian sattelites over Ukraine.

What happened with the Russian space program? 2/6
Today, RU military satellites orbiting the Earth include 25 GLONASS satellites, 47 communications satellites, 6 satellites of the ECS missile warning system, 7 satellites of the Liana marine electronic reconnaissance system, some topographic, radar-location...
How many work?

🧵1/9
New players emerging in arms market.

Sometime ago I wrote about how expensive the western equipment became and, how new countries are emerging as defense exporters.
For example, I was explaining about some Turkish equipment costing just 35-50% of western equivalent. 2/9
From almost one decade RU is losing global market share of defense export.

In 2009-2013 RU had 27% of the global market;
In 2014-2018 this number was 21%;
And in 2017-2021 it reached just 18.6%;
My opnion? The quality isn't a problem for their equipment, but the post sales.

🧵1/9
From last years, 6 countries emerged as competitive players in this market: India, Iran, Turkey, North Korea, China and Sweden. These countries have a variety of weapons and capacity to research, develop and manufacture.
But one even under sanctions, grew considerably:Iran. 2/9
Among them, the Iran deserve a deep analysis.
Iran didn't just bought it's technology from other countries. Their development involve some reverse engineering, but specially a heavy investment in research.
Second the ASPII TECH tracking, Iran is top 4 on some fields

1/3
Recently I was talking to someone from an Arab defense company, who told me about the recent improvements in Iranian Air Defense systems. In fact Iran alone has more ADs than all EU together.

Differently from what people think, it's not just based on Russian technology. 2/3
The Iranian air defenses took the best from US Navy AD systems and the best from RU missiles to build their own systems.

I'm not sure but I think their radars are working with GaN. It's very similar to the AN/TPY 2 long range radar.

🧵1/5
The new deliveries can give new capabilities for Ukraine.

During the entire war, Ukraine received mostly taxis for its troops. Were more than 4.500 APCs, MRAPs, Infantry Mobile Vehicles and others light vehicles. (like 75%)

Now it's different. Ukraine has combined arms. 2/5
Ukraine is getting near 100 heavy Tanks and 250 relatively modern Infantry Fight Vehicles.
Before Ukraine was receiving mostly outdated vehicles.

For the first time after exhausting it's tochka-u, the Ukrainian army can employ combined weapons, including 300km missiles.

🧵1/9
Semiconductors for military proposes aren't a limitation for any country.

From many months the western media keep spreading the idea about semiconductors shortage being responsable for Russian low production.

This is just partially true.

Let see some examples: 2/9
A bit about RU chips:

"Marking this new era in Russia are recent manufacturing process implementations in: 130 nm and 90 nm, and eventually 65 nm; project announcements for 45 nm technology, dramatic escalation of Russia’s nanotechnology industry"

semi.org/en/About/SEMIG…

🧵1/5
The insignificant cost of the decoys!

The use of decoys became a nightmare for the ADs from both sides.

At a rate of 100-150 decoys per week, the AD missile stockpiles can least to 6-8 months. But I assume that this would be a high rate even for decoys. 2/5
We are talking about perfect copies of original missiles regarding size, speed and flight characteristics. This is enough to confuse the AD signatures.

My estimate cost for a decoy is something like $5k-$10k.

To understand better this, we need to know a missile structure.

1/3
The real threat for ADs aren't a direct hit, as the one that direct or indirectly damaged/destroyed the Patriot launchers.
One or two, or even a battery of patriots destroyed are nothing for US, who has like 600 launchers in reserve.
The real threat are the use of decoys. 2/3
The RU decoys are well built, using a real missile body with empty warhead.
No, the ADs can't face large wave of decoys, due to the cost and mainly the number of AD missiles spent to intercept false targets.
Massive decoys are the real danger for ADs, not only for the allies.

1/2
There is no doubts about the visible improvement In Ukr Air Defenses around Kiev.
Doesn't matter if they announce Kinzhals or ICBMs being shut down there. In fact their air defenses improved considerably.

I see a gradually extended safe area, with long range and integration 2/2
The use of decoys from both sides can change the war costs. Russians and Ukrainians are starting to use massive decoys, what put the ADs in extremely expensive mode.

This is a deep talk about the modern ADs and it's vulnerabilities, probably to be considered in medium term.

🧵 1/7
The Ukrainian Tank industry was one of the most admired of the world.

The only country able to challenger the RU Uralvagonzavod and it's structure after the Cold War.

Recently I made a thread about the UVZ capacity and some people was skeptical.

defence-blog.com/ukraine-wants-… 2/7

The Uralvagonzavod produce in peace times 250 T90* annualy. In war times it has capacity to ramp up near 600-750 units IF supplied with every electronic part.
Actually I think they are puting out less than 10 tanks per month, but as I always say: It's not permanent.