Thread by @SamRamani2

Ukraine has reportedly struck Russian Kalibr cruise missiles that are transiting to the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea

Russian sources confirm explosions in Dzhankoy. Some thoughts /1

The timing is inextricably linked with the nine-year anniversary of the Crimea annexation and Putin's recent visit to Crimea

Public opinion surveys in Russia showed the Crimea annexation as Russia's crowning achievement of the 2010s decade. A symbolic blow /2

Strikes on Kalibrs, which are already diminishing, are likely aimed at increasing the gaps between Russia's infrastructure strikes on Ukrainian cities

These strikes could occur as Putin rallies war hawks around his ICC arrest and to distract from Ukraine's counter-offensive /3

Dzhankoy's location also plays a part: it is at the intersection of Crimea's two major railway lines

Attacking this might have less emotional resonance than the Kerch Bridge, but disrupting Dzhankoy's functionality has much greater strategic impact /4

The attack could also be a major success for Ukrainian indigenous technology

The explosion on Dzhankoy mirrors the sounds of Iranian Shahed-136s, which suggests that Ukraine has captured enough Iranian UAVs to produce its own version /5

If Ukraine were to retake Crimea, it would likely launch a wave of strikes of this kind before what would be a costly frontal assault

Resettlement of Russians might cause local resistance and the Axis Crimean offensive in World War II underscores how bloody a campaign can be /6

Attacks of this nature show that Ukraine is committed to recapturing Crimea, even as the West dithers on the issue

The neutralisation of the Black Sea Fleet's strike power, which some Ukrainian officials I've spoken to say is inevitable, is a crucial step in that direction /END