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Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Aug 23

Kids whose parents earn top-1% incomes are much more likely to be admitted to elite universities, all else equal.

If you want to eliminate this bias in admissions, it won't do to eliminate legacy preferences.

The most effective and fair method is to just use test scores!

Q: I can see they're the most effective, but why are they the most "fair"?

A: Because money doesn't buy you a higher IQ, nor can it purchase meaningfully higher test scores at a given IQ.

Test scores are not biased by social class like every other part of admissions portfolios.

Practically everything is biased in the admissions pipeline.

Legacy preferences? Clearly biased.

Club participation? Rich kids can afford to take part in more.

Practicing the violin growing up? Rich kid bias.

Essays? Many rich kids grow up in a milieu trained to cheat these.

Read 11 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Aug 21

One person on this list loves IQ tests.

He tests all of his executives with a modified test like the Wonderlic. That means that you need speed and accuracy.

Let's see if you're smart enough to work at Vista Equity Partners!🧵🧵🧵

First question, 15 minutes on the clock:

Question 2.

These questions are easy, but you have to go fast.

Because of the time constraints, very few people get all 50.

Question 3: we're makin' product here!

Read 25 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Aug 20

I've seen tons of posts showing hypothetical male and female IQ bell curves that show women having extremely small variances relative to men.

Men are reliably more variable, but the empirical difference is not that extreme.

The ACT results from 2024 are representative:

Men are ~15-17% more variable (remember to square your SDs!) in this sample. If you match the levels (since, often, the VR and the \delta are correlated), you get maybe +20% male variability.

That's not nothing, but it's not devastatingly huge.

https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1870587890285134204

Greater male variability in many domains does have strong explanatory power.

For example, a small percentage of top male academics explains the male-female publication gap in sex-balanced fields.

https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1870587890285134204

Read 6 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Aug 18

Having a child changes people.

It makes them far less rambunctious, and pushes them to be more stable.

Notice what happens to men's criminal offending rates in the lead-up to childbirth.

They become far less criminal!🧵

This isn't just about taming dads though.

The effect for women is also incredibly substantial, albeit with a small difference: there's a larger reduction in crime during pregnancy, with some rebound after.

But the rebound is only partial.

In short, what we see with both moms and dads is that having kids leads to a change in priorities and a stark reduction in crime perpetration

So, how does this vary by marital status?

For men, there's not much better married men can do

This effect is about taming unmarried men

Read 22 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Aug 16

One concept I wish more people were aware of is the Tocqueville Effect.

Named for Alexis de Tocqueville, this concept describes the curious phenomenon by which people become more frustrated as problems are resolved:

As life gets better, people think it's getting worse!🧵

You go to a supermarket and it's time to get some fruit.

Of course, when you go to pick your bananas and your berries, you want to pick the freshest stuff.

But if what's on display is a little less fresh than ideal, you might consider a speckled banana or squishier grapes OK.

This is natural and fine.

You know what's not fine?

Cops beatinging jaywalkers because the crime rate dropped.

With too few "assaults", more mild crimes might start getting treated like assaults, even if they shouldn't.

Read 23 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Aug 14

This is a great way to visualize the effect of divorce on children's success as adults🧵

Children whose parents went through a divorce while they were aged 0-5 ranked about 2.4 percentile points lower in the income distribution when they were 25 years old.

The other effects—on teen birth rates, mortality, college attendance, and incarceration—are all relatively large while being absolutely small in effect.

In order, those are +73%, +35%, -40%, and -43%.

But here are those absolute effects:

This study's dataset is uniquely good relative to the rest of the literature.

It's built off of administrative data, and it's very large in scale. That allowed the authors (the lead of which I heartily endorse!) to do a lot of well-powered analyses and produce cool descriptives.

Read 14 tweets

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