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Crémieux Profile picture
Crémieux
@cremieuxrecueil
I write about genetics, 'metrics, and demographics. Read my long-form writing at https://t.co/8hgA4nNS2A.
49 subscribers
Nov 20 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Why?

I doubt the answer is weight loss. Consider 2 other drugs for diabetes: DPP-4 and SGLT-2 inhibitors

GLP-1RAs are associated with less Alzheimer's vs. DPP-4is:

But not SGLT-2is:

Neither generates much weight loss, but SGLT-2is match GLP-1RAs on glycemic benefitsImage
Image So, at least in this propensity score- or age-matched data, there's no reason to chalk the benefit up to the weight loss effects.

This is a hint though, not definitive. Another hint is that benefits were observed in short trials, meaning likely before significant weight loss.
Nov 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
El Salvador is now a safe country

The reason why should teach us something about commitment

The government there has previously attempted crackdowns twice in the form of mano dura—hard hand—, but they failed because they didn't hit criminals hard enough

Then Bukele really didImage In fact, previous attempts backfired compared to periods in which the government made truces with the gangs.

The government cracking down a little bit actually appeared to make gangs angrier!

You'd have been in your right to conclude 'tough on crime fails', but you'd be wrong.
Nov 18 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Diets that restrict carbohydrate consumption lead to improved blood sugar and insulin levels, as well as reduced insulin resistance.

Additionally, they're good or neutral for the liver and kidneys, and they don't affect the metabolic rate. Image Carbohydrate isn't the only thing that affects glycemic parameters.

So does fat!

So, for example, if you replace 5% of dietary calories from saturated fat with PUFA, that somewhat improves fasting glucose levels (shown), and directionally improves fasting insulin: Image
Nov 18 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
Property taxes should, in theory, make it so buying a home is more affordable and young people will have increased access to home ownership.

Let's look through the literature to see what really happens🧵

Firstly, higher property taxes get older people to move. Image Higher property taxes act as leverage since they're capitalized into house prices.

This reduces the number of people who own multiple homes, increases general ownership, and increases young ownership even more. Image
Nov 18 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
There's a popular belief that family wealth is gone in three generations.

The first earns it, the second stewards it, and the third spends it away: from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations!

But how true is this belief?

Gregory Clark has new evidence🧵 Image The first thing to note is that family wealth is correlated across many generations. For example, in medieval England, this is how wealth at death correlates across six generations.

It correlates substantially enough to persist for twelve generations at observed rates of decay: Image
Nov 18 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
The Catholic Church helped to modernize the West due to its ban on cousin marriage and its disdain for adoption, but also by way of its opposition to polygyny.

The origin of this disdain arguably lies with Church Fathers like Justin Martyr, Irenaeus, and Tertullian🧵 Image Justin Martyr, in his Dialogue with Trypho argues with a Jew that Christians are the ones living in continuity with God's true intentions.

Justin sees Genesis 2 ("the two shall become one flesh") as normative.

In his apologetic world, Christians are supposed to transcend lust.Image
Nov 17 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
The effects of charter schools on student test scores are meta-analytically estimated to be small.

In this study, the largest estimated effect was estimated to be equivalent to ~1.35 IQ points, for mathematics scores, which consistently showed larger effects than reading scores. Image Similarly, the estimated effect of parents' preferred schools and of elite public secondary schools on test scores is around zero. Image
Nov 12 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
I'm blocked, so can't reply in thread, but the essay seems to be a mixture of:

- Goalpost moving
- Misrepresenting sources
- Not understanding what von Neumann worked on
- Overclaim
- Ignoring inconvenient facts
- Nothing relevant to his initial aristocratic education claims Scott Alexander is exactly correct about what Hoel is doing here:

He is "citing [von Neumann biographies] in a misleading, bordering on dishonest, way."

theintrinsicperspective.com/p/john-von-neu…
Nov 12 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Amazing!

The missing heritability issue between SNP heritability methods and traditional pedigree-based estimates has now shrunken to just 12%.

Thanks to large-scale whole-genome data and simultaneously estimated phenotypes, there's not much missing heritability left! Image This analysis has several advantages compared to earlier ones.

The most obvious is the whole-genome data combined with a large sample size. All earlier whole-genome heritability estimates have been made using smaller samples, and thus had far greater uncertainty.
Nov 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This policy change has resulted in liberal experts coming out of the woodwork to allege that the policy is...

Intended to discriminate against Hispanics and Indians!

This one even alleged that this is discrimination on the basis of genetic race differences!Image Trump deserves some praise for getting people to fess up to their hereditarian views on this matter.

Also, frankly, the policy is reasonable.

No fat people, no psychos, no sick people who will be burdens.

The only exception should be for those *paying for treatment here*. Image
Nov 8 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
Here are some choice Watson quotes to think about.

"I wouldn't have married a gum-chewing vegetarian." Image Just being correct: Image
Nov 8 • 18 tweets • 8 min read
I'm going to humbly request that everyone stop dunking on John when he isn't even wrong.

Firstly, the reason for the hollowed out middle between -1.96 and 1.96 (p = 0.05) is not due to calculating CIs from abstracts instead of full-texts.

The original source showed that!Image The original source for the Medline p-values explicitly compared the distributions in the abstracts and full-texts.

They found that there was a kink such that positive results had excess lower-bounds above 1 and negative results had excess upper-bounds below 1.Image
Nov 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I got blocked for this meager bit of pushback on an obviously wrong idea lol.

Seriously:

Anyone claiming that von Neumann was tutored into being a genius is high on crack. He could recite the lines from any page of any book he ever read. That's not education! 'So, what's your theory on how von Neumann could tell you the exact weights and dimensions of objects without measuring tape or a scale?'

'Ah, it was the education that was provided to him, much like the education provided to his brothers and cousins.' Image
Nov 6 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A new study just came out on this topic.

Using data from almost 14 million young people in England, they found that COVID—but not COVID vaccination—was broadly associated with heart problems.

The myocarditis bump (which is milder than real myocarditis) was also small.Image This study also provides more to differentiate viral myocarditis from vaccine """myocarditis""", which again, is mild, resolves quickly, etc., unlike real myocarditis.

To see what it is, first look at this plot, showing COVID infection risks by time since diagnosis: Image
Nov 6 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
This analysis falls flat when you look into these people or think about how so many other "vons" were not as brilliant.

Von Neumann's brilliance preceded formal education and any tutoring. His advanced math tutor noted that he was smarter than him from their first meeting!Image Von Neumann was noted to be eidetic by 3.

By 6 he could divide two 8-digit numbers immediately in his head.

He picked up multiple languages by 7, long before his similarly-instructed cousins and brothers.

By 8, he could do calculus.

His precocity *inspired* hiring a tutor. Image
Nov 5 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Tangentially, inheritances are:

1. Generally small
2. Generally small relative to household assets
3. Provided increasingly later in life

Inheritances now average hitting around ~51, versus ~41 in 1989. In both periods, that means hitting after careers tend to be established. Image Mind that these are averages. Cut outliers and these numbers are more pitiful across the board.

Even accounting for other forms of parental asset transfers, you still wouldn't see that much wealth is transmitted directly intergenerationally.

Most transmission is not direct.
Nov 4 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
What do studies say about "freezing the rent"?

Let's have a thread🧵

First thing's first: Most studies agree that rent controlled units have lower rents, but also the supply of rentable units goes down and un-controlled units see their rents increase.

Uh-oh! Image Rent control also means that fewer homes get built, and it means that housing quality drops.

After all, if you can't raise the rent, what incentive do you have to make everything sparkly and neat? Image
Nov 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I'm not taking a stance on whether inflammation drives cancer, but I will say it's very true that GLP-1 drugs reduce inflammation—a lot!

Tirzepatide at any dose greatly reduced levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and interleukin-6, two important inflammation markers: Image I have actually had people thank me for getting them on this stuff precisely because they had inflammation issues that these drugs *immediately* solved for them.

Here's an example I've posted before: this man's back pain was cured!

Oct 31 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The CDC's new Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) didn't put out immunization guidance for 2025-26.

So some researchers got together and did the government's job for them. Here's what they found🧵

First, the RSV vaccine is great for preventing hospitalization! Image The next thing up is the flu vaccine.

These are still showing a touch lower efficacy than in previous years, but they're still

(1) good
(2) worth it
(3) even more worth it for infants and children Image
Oct 27 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
How rich are American workers?

Very!

After accounting for taxes, transfers, cost of living differences and so on, American workers make far more than their counterparts across the OECD. Image Is this just because Americans work more?

No. That has something to do with it for some comparisons, but it's not everything.

Americans are also more productive and they get to take home more of what they earn. Image
Oct 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Wow!

Across basically all of Europe, people at higher income levels are now *more likely* to become parents!

This is a stunning shift! Image Among men, this relationship goes a while back now, and in several places, the income gradient has gotten more extreme. Image