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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
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Mar 21 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Back when I worked for USDA and had working relationships with Big Cotton and the cotton-industry promoters, I suggested a very specific ad campaign they told me was too spicy....
Ad begins with running music. Natural scene. Misty mountain pathway. Woman's face; airpods in; she's clearly running. Dramatic music build. Distant shots of her running up dramatic mountain slope. From distance, you can see she's wearing black. Probably athletic wear.
No words. No branding. Beautiful scenery. Fitness. Health. Nature. All the vibes.

Last scene. She gets to the summit. Gorgeous view. You get her face again. Camera pans to show you her body.

She's wearing an oil slick.

Text on screen:

"Yoga pants are just oil."
You could do varieties of this. Mom around the house taking care of her kids, leaving oil slick footprints.
Kids wearing junior-yoga-pants stuff, so smeared in oil.
Folks if you wanted to run a negative ad campaign on synthetic fibers IMHO this is it. When I told cotton people they should do it they were like no, we only do positive ads. People don't like egative ads. And I was like, correct, that's the point.
I have started getting Facebook ads for "natural" clothes where they say "that fresh feeling you get after working out in yoga pants.... is petrochemicals leaching into your skin"

guys idk if it's true but it makes me go "eww, gross, yeah, gimme dem hemp pants"
Though of course the solid rebuttal to all of this is rayon. Frankly, BIG rayon fan over here, and when I was at USDA some cotton folks were exploring if you could make rayon from cotton stalks after harvesting the cotton fiber.
"we can sustainably make silk out of pine trees" is just one of those things that is very cool
folks the ideal textile is a rayon-linen blend

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More from @lymanstoneky

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Mar 22
In the 2021 Census, only 57% of Canadians had English as a mother tongue. Another 20% had French. 23% had other languages. Of those, the 5 biggest were Mandarin and Punjabi (2%), then Cantonese, Spanish, and Arabic (1.5%).

Given this large inflow, this is already out of date.
The American perception of Canada is dominated by white Anglophones. And yet, white Anglophones were already in 2021 a minority of Canadians. Image
It's not clear what Canada will be like in 2050. It seems plausible that English will be even more dominant than it is now, but that the Anglophone community will be extremely heavily populated by ethnic minorities, especially Asians.
Read 4 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Mar 22
Wonderful article by @annalouiesuss on how South Korea's low fertility is actually just a symptom of a catastrophically deep social dysfunction which encompasses insane work demands, anti-familism, security anxieties, and "gendered culture." theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This recent academic paper uses data for Singapore but teases out a lot of the same issues there.

A HUGE matching problem for marriage and fertility is men and women increasingly do not share cultural and ideological attitudes.
Demographers and economists have sometimes called this a difference in gender norms or unshared housework or an incomplete gender revolution, but it's increasingly clear that's wrong.

Men and women increasingly disagree about basic concepts like "what is a disease"
Read 19 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Mar 21
seems like the main rebuttal to *2021* maternal mortality data is to note that it is *from 2021* when Dobbs was decided *2022*. pro-choice folks seem to believe in time-traveling abortion restrictions
pro-choice folks are like "Lyman, pro-life states have worse maternal health outcomes!"

and i'm like

"yes, and that's true whether you use maternal mortality data from 2020, 1980, 1960, 1940, or 1850!"
it turns out, health inequalities are correlated across time, and conservative states tend to have had a lot worse health outcomes way back in the past, long before the current abortion debate.
Read 12 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Mar 21
Upzoning does boost construction but the effect on rent is limited, consistent with the idea upzonings may also increase amenity values and desirability of cities.
Again, I favor upzoning and more liberalized land use rules generally--- but this is confirming the intuition me and some others have been arguing for a while, namely, that liberalizing zoning may not have quite the price effects people assume.
If the benefit of cities is dense amenities and agglomeration effects and upzoning boosts population that will cause more agglomeration effects and greater economic viability of amenities so more amenities which means more benefit of cities which means.... higher prices!
Read 7 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Mar 21
Nice new paper shows that 1) for previous cohorts, delayed fertility has NOT been "caught up," so delay==decline, 2) there is "minimal" chance of current delays being offset by future increases.

So much for "it's just tempo." demographic-research.org/volumes/vol48/…
Seems like 3 or 4 years ago I used to get a LOT more pushback from people saying it was all tempo effects; now it seems like more and more of the discipline is coming around to the idea that quantum really has fallen.
REALLY REALLY wish demographers had a survey program like the economist survey that regularly tracks expert opinion on these types of issues. Discipline needs more introspection.
Read 7 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Mar 20
Suzie has extremely strongly internalized that in this family we admire warriors and so she is very interested in presenting reasons for why her preferred character or princess of the day should be considered a warrior.
Today she was concerned that Esther might not be properly considered a warrior because 1) Esther has no mentioned horse and 2) the children's Bible version does not mention Esther fighting any battles
However, we assured her that Esther was indeed a warrior, because at the end of the book the Jews have to actually do some street-fighting against Haman's mob. Thus, Queen Esther's status as warrior is affirmed, lack of horse notwithstanding.
Read 10 tweets

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