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Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Mar 23

There were 23,179 babies born in South Korea in January 2023,a 6% decrease compared to last year,according to a report released by Statistics Korea on Wednesday. That is the fewest recorded births in January since the agency began data compilation in 1981: koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/03/23/bus…

However, there is also some good news. There were 17,926 marriages in January, a 21.5% on-year increase. As there are very few out of wedlock births in South Korea a huge rise in marriages ahead of 2024 may bode well for an increase in births during the year of the Dragon.

Even in a best case scenario (very unlikely) where there is a 20% increase in births in 2024 over 2023 South Korea will still see under 300,000 births next year. The country seems destined to record less than 300,000 annual births for the foreseeable future.

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Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Mar 21

According to this Economist article Russia may be entering into a "doom loop of demographic decline". They argue the war is exacerbating things through increasing casualties & the flight of so many young & educated 🧵: economist.com/europe/2023/03…

@AIRaksha1

The piece cites our friend @AIRaksha1 (a former employee of Rosstat,who has provided very useful insights here on Russian data from time to time)in stating that the number of Russian births in April 2022 was the lowest since the 18th century(when looking at just peacetime years).

According to the Russian state statistics agency, the share of ethnic Russians in the population declined from ~78% to 72% between 2010 & 2021. Though this may be in part due to people that once identified as ethnic Russians self identifying differently during the 2021 census.

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Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Mar 17

Eagerly awaiting EU preliminary birth estimates for 2022. 2021 saw an estimated 4,086,056 births across the block according to Eurostat. If 2022 saw just a ~3% decline then the EU recorded less than 4M births for the first time in its history.

In 1900 just three European countries (the UK, Italy & Germany) recorded more births than the entire 27 country EU saw in 2021. Sub-replacement TFR across much of EU since the 1970s has done its work. Europeans have woken up to this crisis decades too late.

Pushing the retirement age to 70,raising taxes,increasing immigration+printing more money are some of the ways European leaders will flail about trying to solve this. These are the main solutions on offer from European elites&not much else besides subsidized daycare+baby bonuses.

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Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Mar 15

There is a preliminary birth number floating around for 2022 Ukrainian births. It claims there were 195,000 births that year. ~8M Ukrainians fled (including many thousands of pregnant women). Also the Ukrainian population under government control fell to under 30M.

Thus it is almost impossible to accurately capture TFR for 2022 & will be harder still for 2023. True Ukrainian TFR (when adjusting for an accurate population that was far less than the 41M in 2021 used to calculate TFR) in 2021 was likely closer to 1.4 and not the ~1.2 reported.

The fertility rate for 2022 and 2023 will likely be disastrously low even accounting for Ukrainian refugee births in other countries. TFR was likely close to 1.0 in 2022 & could very well be sub 1.0 by a lot for 2023. We likely won’t have good data until after the war.

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Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Mar 14

The Japanese government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has announced a three pillared approach to combat demographic decline & increase births in what it promised will be an "unprecedented" set of measures. Brief thread looking at the policies in detail. asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia…

The first pillar entails an expansion of financial aid, such as increasing or broadening allowances for households with kids. The government currently offers ¥10-15K ($75 to $113) monthly for each child until age 15, with some limitations on higher-income families.

The second pillar will involve strengthening the quantity & quality of childcare, including after-school care & services for sick kids, as well as an expansion of postpartum services.

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Aaronal

@Aaronal16

Mar 12

Demographics will hold Poland back from great power status. While there is a not insignificant chance Poland can get TFR to 1.8 by 2030, this will not be enough. Poland is aging rapidly & Ukrainian immigrants offer nothing but a temporary fill up(one that has been much oversold).

By 2030s Poland will likely see a natural decline of at least 150,000 annually. There will also be more Poles leaving the workforce than entering (before immigration) as aging continues rapidly. Poland was already amongst the fastest aging Eastern Euro countries from 2012-2022.

The last big Polish birth cohort was from 1974-1987 & has mostly completed fertility as its youngest women are turning 36 this year. The chart below shows Polish births (3rd from left after year & total population) during this period & after:

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