🧵1/6

The 3 biggest Russian tank factories are idling due to electronics.

The Uralvagonzavod, Omsktransmash and Kurganmashzavod are working with semi-finished armored vehicles. This is when you produce the unit, but didn't assemble the interior equipment, extern sensors, etc.
2/6

RU vehicles always were using 60-90s technology. But 2 components break this cycle: Thermal/Night sights.
The navigation and fire control are completely manufactured in Russia.
A detail, the 2E36-I and 2E52 stabilizers for BMP-2 /BMP-3 are made in Ukr by PETROVSKIY KYIV.
3/6
FCS
The Russian holding Vysokotochnye Kompleks has around 20 companies developing high precision components as Fire controls, sensors, etc.
The Novosibirsk Instrument Making Plant, RFAS and Vologda Optical are also manufacturing FCS.

I don't think they miss components there.
4/6

The navigator system and others equipments are rudimentaries, but the russians know how to use it very well.
Bellow images from the BMP-3 without modern equipment.

The problem: RU don't manufacture these equipments anymore and miss components to manufacture the new ones.
4/5

The New BMP-3 variants have new components. It's a good vehicle and with excellent price.
But... Russian only started a nationalization program at 2018/19. They hadn't time to research and manufacture domestically most of its components.
It should take more than one decade.
5/5

Their real pain are the thermal sights.

They are using the Namut thermal sight is a joint development of Sagem from France, SKBM-Kurgan and Peleng of Belarus. Due the sanctions, French company just frozen the project.
RU created a national thermal called Sosna-U and PNM-T.
Note:

RU can substitute every component buying from international market. (Rarely anything is newer than 20y).
Bur it takes time and even the already developed systems haven't a full production line.
Even in US and EU, some equipments are assembled manually, tested, etc.
Note: 2
It's impossible to start massive production of a complex equipment as the PNM-T for example in few months.

And another question is the quality. Military equipment must be made to survive in the hardest conditions and intensive usage. This means lot of tests and fixes.
Don't think they aren't producing. They are producing Bellow their capacity, but still producing. Some people has no idea about who Ukraine is fighting.

bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/10/10…

bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/09/26…

armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russ…

defence-blog.com/russian-army-r…

eurasiantimes.com/russia-to-doub…
They will send T62, T55, even T34 if they have because this is how they fight. They want to stretch the allies capacity to supply weapons and, they are sure that western equipment cost 3x more.
It's a fight military capacity and a long war.
Ukr is fighting well, but need more aid

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More from @pati_marins64

Mar 22
🧵1/5

More about artillery lethality.

The blast wave is brutal from a 152/155mm shell. And even more brutal from the 203mm 2s7 Pion.

This is why the massive Sheling on cities is a serious crime against civiles. This is being used routinely by Russian army in Ukraine.
2/5
The shelling against structures (part of RU strategy) target civiles and military troops in the towns.

My criticism over situations like Backmut and Severodonetsk, was about the cities be almost empties, and the Ukr troops stay there shelled from 3 sides day/night.
3/5

Usually a 155mm generate a Peak overpressure values of 44.2 psi (304.7kPa) close to the epicenter of the blast. It's 2x the necessary wave to kill a person.
Artilleries are the most important pieces for a war like Ukraine. It's an enabler of advance, specially near valleys.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 21
🧵1/5
Is the artillery accuracy so important?

If we are talking about conventional shells, accuracy isn't so important because it's compensated by the blast radius of indirect fire.
A 155mm or 152mm shell has a kill radius of 50m/850m2 + 100m/1900m2 of injury radius.
2/5
Most of the chelling deaths are caused by Blast Brain Injury or other injuries in abdomen and other areas, known as the Blast shock. But depending of the shell, these deaths and injuries are caused by Shrapnel. (fragmentation)

nationalgeographic.com/science/articl…
3/5
A Conventional 152/155mm shell produce a crater of 1.2-1.8m due to shell explosion.
In some cases the ammo is old and didn't explode. See the holes on the green field. The ones without light around are failed shells. Russia has maybe 35-55% failing rate. It's really dangerous
Read 6 tweets
Mar 10
1/2
Still about the hypersonic missjles VS air defenses.

Three things are determinant to decide the interception chances: Radar Range, Reaction Time and target Trajectory.

Usually the radar range for missiles are different from other aerodynamic targets. It can be 25-50%.
2/4
For example, the S-300PMU, has a range of 150km, but only 40km for Balistic and cruiser Missiles.
Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 around 20km is the protected area for Balistic missiles.

A hypersonic missile fly at 3.5-8km/s. It means that the AD system has less than 10sec to engage
3/4
There is something called reaction time. It's the time of whole process after detection untill the engagement of incoming objects. Usually this time is 7-12sec in any modern AD system.

So, we have 20km radar range, but no time to even try an interception.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
🧵1/2
Yesterday some Kinzhal missiles reached Ukr.
The Kinzhals fly at 14.000km/h and are almost impossible to intercept.

Against hypersonic missiles, the only answer is attack back.
Ukr has technology and developed its first hypersonic missile 50y ago.

sandboxx.us/blog/hypersoni…
2/2

5 countries have hypersonic missiles: China, Rússia, US and India, Irán and North Korea.

6 countries have hypersonic glide vehicles, but didn't make missiles:
Australia, France, Germany, Brazil, S. Korea and Japan.

This market grew many billions during the last years. ImageImage
Note:

In one decade maybe more countries will join this group and develop hypersonic weapons.

It's going to transform the actual anti missile units in ineffective systems.
Only a new generation of radars and remodeled systems can change this situation.
AD just developed slower.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
1/3
Is Ukraine producing Grom-2 missiles secretly in Saudi Arabia?

"The manufacturing of Ukrainian designs at Al Dawadmi is, therefore, also a possibility."

Al Dawadmi missile production facility is located about 200km west of Riyadh.

iiss.org/blogs/analysis…
2/3

Is Ukraine testing the 1.500km version of Grom-2 in Saudi Arabia?

andrei-bt.livejournal.com/1477529.html

Now it's known that Ukrainian enginners were able to extend the range of Grom-2 to 1.500km.

It would be able to completely change the war and without any foreign fear of escalation.
3/3
Saudi paid for the development of Grom-2, but later decided to develop its own version of Balistic missiles, supported by a Chinese company.

Then Ryad returned the ukr system to Kiev during the war.

And if it was just a game to supply Ukr and get tech transfer? Possible.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
🧵1/4
Since Zelensky frozen the war in Backmut, let talk again about the Russian industry.

Lets talk about their Missile industry!

Few years ago they had around 17 Consortiums working on the missile production.
After bankruptcies, acquisitions and merges, now they have 12.
2/4
12 Consortiums, with around 90-120 companies connected to production and development.

The Tactical Missiles Corporation joint stock company (JSC) is the biggest one with around 11 subsidiaries.
A big structure allow the production of less accurate but completely domestic un
3/4
The production was around 100 missiles/Mo, being 50 cruisers and 50 others, including for defense.
After the war mode, we would can expect 300 missiles/Mo (including 20-25 Iskanders/Mo)
But.. missiles like Kalibr, iskander and some KH class are missing 3 imported components:
Read 5 tweets

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