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Dovey
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Mar 24 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Aftermath of #SVB on Chinese outflow and Singapore inflow

1/ My private bankers in SG said they have seen massive Chinese wealth outflow from US after SVB crisis into Singapore

SVB is not just a Sandhill VC bank but also bank to offshore GPs and Chinese tech firm under VIE
2/ just anecdotally one of my Chinese tech investment (a series B company) had $10m in SVB

It’s a bank to global tech money and HNW tech persons

Most Chinese HNW post 2000 (age between 35-60) are made under tech, who used to considered US bank as ironclad not anymore
3/Chinese wealthy can’t trust both Chinese and American financial systems, Singapore is making the real killing in between (western common laws and market structure+ eastern doctrines) and has become 1st choice for capital out flow

The viral meme 👇🏻 is quite a explanatory
4/ Chinese tech UHNW like BAT(ByteDance, Alibaba Tencent) founders and early employees, many already reside in SG and plan to expand its corp foot print here

Modern technocrats are native internationalist and globalist, they vote with their feet for the least friction of life
5/ city state (highly efficient political corporation) with solid financial infra will gain massive financial and human capital power in-proportional to its size of land this decade

So bullish on SG and UAE 🇦🇪 (UAE is 1st capital outflow destination for Indian and Russian money)
6/ US hegemony will overtime fade due to 1) confidence deterioration on the US financial stability 2) geo politic dynamics of local liquidity arrangement like petro-Yuan

Once the trust in US financial intermediaries is gone international capital will look for alternative
There are not many alternatives out there as new trusted intermediary

Singapore is trust in man made institutions with less political agenda, crypto is trust in math with apolitical agenda

Both will thrive in coming years of upheaval

Long the 🦁 city and the orange coin

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More from @DoveyWan

Dovey
Mar 12
Just read the @circle announcement on USDC circle.com/blog/an-update…

last year I ask @jerallaire their repo experience and how it's time to stress test it. They are well aware of all risks and should have rehearsed the liquidity ops for an extreme situation like this ...
I believe Circle and the team will go through this and might have to raise an equity cushion (or bridge loan) to buy time while FDIC process their uninsured claims

this should be an easy ie to collateralize their bond interest for the raise
after all these this will accelerate related stablecoin policy making hopefully, to eventually get Circle a full Fed account just like Alipay

and if that's the case, using USDC will be like a quasi CBDC and Circle will become the digital reserve bank sit on top of Fed
Read 4 tweets
Dovey
Mar 11
now it's the WORST time to unwind or swap USDC, USDC holders and Defi vault operator with USDC don't panic

1. the actual loss of Circle's 3.3B deposits will likely take ~25% haircut so <1B, which can be primarily covered by its 2022 income from $32.B short-term T-bill yield imo
2. Coinbase publicly said will resume redemption on Monday, even if you don't have CB account, there will be on-going arb as long as the redemption is there. So the onchain exchange USDC will be relatively peggish as long as redemption is open

3. 25% haircut is already pretty doomed case and assuming no bailout

the impact to let SVB free fall is a big slap on the face of Fed/Treasury and will significantly ruin financial backbone of tech in US

Damage is much more than just money so gov will have to do something
Read 11 tweets
Dovey
Mar 2
Internet users: 5 billion; cex users+ onchain wallets ~250 million

The adoption is at most 5%, there’s 95% more to conquer

To bank the unbanked, to chain the unchained, this is the most exiting paradigm shift of our time

The future is here, just not evenly distributed Image
“The tightest-knit supermassive black hole duo” is the pic to present my thoughts on “web3”

Internet is built on telecom but is NOT telecom 2.0

crypto economy (protocols, dapps and all related infra & services) is built on the web but it’s orthogonal, sometimes opposite to web2
“Web3” is a sleek marketing and education term, but for crypto founders don’t get framed by this lazy naming

Web3 is not a continuation of web2

Think what’s native, what’s the pain, what’s the must have to bring on next millions instead of migrating existing web2 app & flows
Read 5 tweets
Dovey
Mar 2
Most tech investors considered crypto is perma overhyped and AI is finally to an inflection pt

I hold a diff opinion -

1/ models will be commoditized and most consumer facing features will be embedded into existing incumbents for free, leaving no room for new SuperApp to grind
2/ verticalized training data is hard to acquire from an bootstrapping new app

but with tokenomics, micro incentive, collective peer review (a DAO format) will be much easier to pull off

Crypto founder will build Proof of Micro Intelligent Work and a de-Amazon mechanical turk
3/ validation cost of a real human behavior gonna be extremely high going forward and crypto founders have been in the war with bots and sibyl since day one, be able to quantify the fidelity of real human engagement will dictate the success of most consumer facing app
Read 8 tweets
Dovey
Mar 1
Having been training my own AI alter ego as a beta test for a friend's project, it's absolutely weird and thrilled

I've been wanting a twin forever now I'm close to getting a digital one. This recalibrates my views and values toward life/death, legacy, and truth

a meta thread
1/ AIGC and ChatGPT are blurring the line of what's real, the cost of forming a consensus of reality will skyrocket

Crypto lays the foundation of an immutable ledger to anchor value consensus, in the future much more work will be required to sustain a meaningful immutable truth
2/Such a product is quite ingenious cuz the best use of one's training data is to train your own LLM model.

there was a project years ago to simulate conversations with deceased loved ones. but with limited digital records of last gen and suboptimal model the result is meh
Read 9 tweets
Dovey
Feb 25
After playing with @midjourney_ai I was initially impressed by the flawless rendering, but didn’t take long to feel aesthetically fatigued

AIGC human while visually impressive, are devoid of expressive eyes and featured vacuous

AI can’t generate firm gaze, AI can’t create soul
Future will fill with zero production cost content, the lasting value of those can be equally set to zero for lacking of human ingenuity and originality

Even Da Vinci can’t recreate Mona Lisa

When everything is dubbed “art”, the real art will be extremely valuable
mentioned the wrong Midjourney in my first tweet.

midjourney.com/home this is the AIGC tool I've been using, not the NFT project ..

its render effect is pretty impressive and it’s still evolving really fast. A sample from its prompt -
Read 4 tweets

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