𝐄𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

🧵

1/There is no compression algo for innovation, given enough time and numerous small mutations, innovation will emerge

It’s the law of nature just like evolution, all of these happen through time, change and entropy dissipation 2/ In crypto we have unfair advantages in an open and permissionless innovation environment comparing with other domains:

what used to be once a “moat” is up, it’s hard to disrupt (which imo it’s part of the reason that leads to innovation stagnation in the past decade)

BIT TECH vs DEEP TECH

in holiday had pretty intriguing conversations with family members on this topic (many healthcare and bio practitioners in my fam from my parent's gen, and in my gen most are in Bit-Tech)

it's a rehash of discrete thoughts but I think worth a thread here for parent's gen, tech for them means bio, chemical, healthcare, manufacturing tech, and another more industrial tech. Tech that's oriented around atoms level, moving atoms around, what I considered as DEEP TECH or heavy tech

Composability in Defi means both compounding opportunities and composable risk

As the earliest investor & LP on GMX and Rage, I'm bullish about their direction. Meanwhile feel it's responsible to share risk analysis on the @rage_trade Delta Neutral GLP vault for future LP

a 🧵 I’ve already LP in both vault after weighting in all risk factors, you should DYOR too. and pls read their design doc before any proper aping

docs.rage.trade/mechanism

assuming you know the design framework already, let's get into the risk stuff!

maple.finance/news/maple-sev…

This @maplefinance shitshow and current state of defi c2pool undercollat lending reminds me of my vc investment in Lendinghome back in the day, a worst combined in a few layers of risk management

a few thoughts - the premise of proper risk mgmt is to collect enough **verifiable data** to put together your borrower's PnL

- esp for the crypto assets as PnL can easily be fabricated, most of the credit default is the result of complacency in diligence and greed from the sale side

The more I read abt societal collapse (reading “Upheaval” by my fav Jared Diamond rn), the more I realize it takes centuries to build a solid civilization but can break apart in generations, due to social or geographic catalysts leading to an inexorable downhill path Individual however, due to limited life expectancy and horizon (as well as cognitive limits in what’s beyond their own vision) will be frogs in the slow boiled water

Generational wealth of individual is useless when there is no generational prosperity at a civilization level

“The Darker Triad in Crypto” 🧵

Historically we have seen evil leaders in all spaces rise with 1 or 3 traits on the dark triad, leading to catastrophic aftermath (we are in one rn

The evergrowing influence of social media aids them to be more deceptive and manipulative

1/n thanks to the reflexiveness of the online community, lack of nonverbal signals in virtual communication, and access to the vast majority of less independent thinkers all over the globe

These "leaders" can now effortlessly target the audience that will easily fall for them

2/n

JUSTIN

MAS Reprimands Three Arrows Capital for Providing False Information and Exceeding Assets Under Management Threshold

mas.gov.sg/regulation/enf… a few important pieces of info from the announcement

1. 3AC notified MAS on 29 April 2022 (right before LUNA collapse, which also coincided with their abrupt move into Dubai) of its intent to cease fund management activity in Singapore with effect from 6 May 2022

I know it’s a market bottom when I once again pickup my low carb bakery game … baked bunch of keto 蛋黄酥 (egg yolk pastry) today to save $$ on eating out & bad carbs 😋😋

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1218558805098680320

Some last cycle achievement in my keto bakery

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1196667377976410112

TGIF 🫶🏻 We are grinding the bottom while dust are being settled. No bailout, no printing, a self evolving market is the most antifragile

I will keep an eye on miners inflow leads to spot sell as hashrate rn is over priced

lenders balance contraction > miners have less runway That **might** cause another leg down

once it’s done we good imo

More I think abt it, think cefi like Celsius is much harder to have an actual bank run in reality

1/

But FIRST THING FIRST:

Still better to withdraw to avoid a tail risk tho, not your key not your fund

If you don't know where the yield is from, you are the yield In tradfi bank is only required to have 10% reserve ratio which is much worse comp to many crypto reserves but we rarely see any major bank run (yet)

plenty of liquidity emergency plans put in place after 2008/2020, esp among CB on multitude of bilateral currency swap

2/

Sunday chill and 💭: heading out for a picnic, randomly picked a very short series with me, and it's my favorite topic on “free will”. This is the most fundamental question in life: when we are making countless choices do we really have a “choice”? Value judgment is subjective and ordinal, we always have a ranking system making decisions. But that ranking is bounded by restrictions and conditions, highly related to your expectation, your relative feeling towards your peers, social pressure, and much beyond just yourself

After playing Elden Ring all weekend, thought abt the biggest gap in gamefi rn:

1. All gamefis target mid to low income demographic for P2E, with inflated “gamer” numbers when actual none really enjoys the game

Mercenary scholars’ long term value to the game is questionable 2. Gamefi salary men rely on Guild for in game “means of production” aka NFTs, and this means Guild either pay upfront or get from the Game for this value transfer

This is a classic problem in econ when labors are separated from their tools/lands where they can be productive

昨天看到篇关于濒死脑电波文章，发现这个世界其实从最形而上的角度来说，都是gamma waves. 从人脑里的gamma，到核裂变的gamma射线，到option gamma，数学其实才是统治一切的终点。

今天一个哥们我问我 “你觉得人类社会进步的底层drive到底是啥？”


看到这个问题，笑了。我回答，没啥drive。 真的没啥drive

持续获得生存的能量，提升生活质量和养活更多的人估计是工业革命前的一个不言而喻目的，工业革命之后人类单位人口可以掌握的能量迅速膨胀，到了现在发展和进步似乎变成了盲目和机械的追求。食物更大的产量、更便捷的生活和交通。但是这些真的是因为有drive么？

如果有，那是什么？

“Web2的背面不是Web3”

这大概是今年我重复说的最多的一句话。也许我是错的，毕竟很难想象Web3具体长什么样子，iPhone出现前没人能想象现在的移动互联网。这里记录一些零散的逻辑，未来证伪或者证实，都是好的。

(Pink Floyd这张专辑给了我思考这个问题的很多灵感，从封面到歌单，Syd永远的神)

1/ 一直以来很多的Web3逻辑都在反复强调Web2的问题，数据孤岛，隐私安全，巨头垄断，等等。在2017年的牛市周期也涌现过大量放在现在就是妥妥的Web3的项目，也曾经有昙花一现的辉煌（市值）从DID到Data Marketplace到Social到de-Ads

毕竟当年ICO的高光时刻就是$BAT的ICO，也是第一次用上gas war

2/

Happy Valentine's Day my fellow 🫐 gang

here I introduce G-Baby that all of us who love @GMX_IO can simp on. It's a super interesting journey of how Gbaby came together from Gmixer chat (a bunch of hardcore $GMX OG frens)

and thanks Untitled Studio for making it @TeamUn_titled last year Oct we had the initial idea in the Gmixer group of making a "Gbaby" as the eGirl avatar that can best represent the nature of GMX as a one-stop-shop L2 trading platform

then reached out to a manga studio fren for the task and ideate the characters together

Grew up in a highly permissioned-manner based society, I learned a ton through recent drama abt the "cancel culture"

there are so many minor acts that can get me "canceled" throughout my entire life, making me into crypto so much, value permissionless and anonymity so deeply

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1402515118760468485

I'm not sure if the cancel movement is another form of "social pressure induced permission" which may naturally lead to self-censor, which, from my experiences, if it develops into a widely conducted social norm, it will def do

Entered the space in the 2013 cycle for price volatility like many, filled with fomo, anxiety

The 2014-2016 winter was the hardest, so many times felt we on the verge of a whole industry vanish left with only “blockchain as a service”bs

2018-2019 winter was also harder

1/ So many FUDs, Bitcoin forks, non stop Tether FUDs, regulatory batshits, etc

the happiest time was god level shit posting on CT iirc

Mini bulls quickly got hammer down after PlusToken busted (after we hit 12k in summer 19)

And another almost a full year of death spiral

2/

关于避险：在和一个正在成为黄金级别自我觉醒者讨论关于”避险“的问题，很多中心思想之前微博发过，这里再发一遍：对于很多Bitcoiner或者Crypto Native，”避险” 意味着规避法币体系的风险，而不是“规避某个资产对应法币的价格下跌”。如果原来越越多人选择币本位，或者至少币本位对应一揽子法币

1/ 前晚在aDAO分享也提到了周围台湾盆友的例子，台湾家庭对于未来两年台币崩盘有很强预期，都在做各种“避险”。如果换位思考，就不难理解对为什么对法币的价值“共识”会在某一历史性事件触发瞬间分崩离析。来自自我主权/产权意识觉醒的、自发形成的价值共识，不会被任何社会意识形态和治理结构变化裹挟

2/

did an interview with a top equity brokerages in China on gamefi/metaverse

trad-game is highly dominated by Tencent, NetEase, GA and Blizzard, gamefi seems to be a way out for most mid size gaming studios, many I talked with are ready to make the move regardless of the ban

1/ Private studio like Mihoyo, a Shanghai based one, is the creator of Genshin Impact, one of the highest grossing mobile games in 2020 (gross revenue $2 BILLION for the first year of its release!)

Mihoyo is also investing a ton in metaverse/gamefi starting last year

2/

Mainland China 🇨🇳 crypto situation TL;DR 🧵

🥲 Retail traders: much stricter access to all CEXs asmost shutdown Chinese KYC retroactively. But loophole exists since paid KYC (to bypass country’s restriction) is a common service already. So KYC hurdle will impact boomer retail … … who are not tech savvy (don’t know how to VPN) and can’t access paid KYC service due to language or other informational barriers (never use Dex before)

This boomer group is quite sizable in mainland (esp on Huobi and other domestic facing CEXs)

Younger group can hustle

Unironically, I'm super bullish on the Chinese crypto founders, unlike most ppl consider them just go dead after this regulatory cleansing.

Chinese crypto founders' survivability are cockroach level, they have entered the reg arb/anon game long before their west peers

1/n They've been under harsh regulatory scrutiny since 2017, many learned the hard lessons, started managing a fully decentralized team ever since (Binance now has 2000+ employees

+ have set up innovative corp structure to be resilient, the legal hustling is invaluable

2/n