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Albert Pinto Profile picture
@70sBachchan
Mar 24, 2023 • 13 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
With footloose petrodollars, every story is an oil story.

Silicon Valley Tech bubble? Oil
Twitter buyout? Oil
Credit Suisse meltdown? you guessed it, oil.

Our newsletter on how the West is now outsourcing even the energy transition to the Gulf Kingdoms phenomenalworld.org/analysis/stran… Image
Theres not just unburnable pvt owned Oil - Exxon etc - but National Oil. Companies like Aramco are tied to countries Sov funds,fiscal budgets & jobs. 2 Carbon crash scenarios w different politics:#StrandedAssets & #StrandedCountries
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/stran…
3/ National Oil Companies represent the un-burnable wealth of nations. Western greens must differentiate politics of #StrandedNations & world-order from that of private #StrandedAssets
We wrote about @jimcust @DaveManleyRocks paper
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/stran…
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4/ @ProfessorKaren:""Gulf partners"(aka UAE) to do the work on financing green power across MENA,de-escalation &massive FDI effort. Political transformation as a US goal in MENA is over;Gulf state capitalism wins. Oil price flexibility expected in return"
5/ Rich countries had promised developing countries a measly $100 billion in climate $. They never coughed up

Last yr, US signed a $100Bn clean energy partnership w UAE to finance 100 GW in developing countries! We call it the outsourced energy transition
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/stran… Image
6/Before OPEC,there were only Western Oil Cartels. "On both climate & politics, too many ppl resort to stereotypes of OPEC..that are all too convenient to US & European geopolitical interests"
Could it help Global South's just transition? ht @FuelOnTheFire priceofoil.org/2020/02/10/wha… Image
7/ Well some bankers are getting punished. Just not European or American ones.

Saudi Crown Prince MBS fires Saudi national Bank chairman Al Khudairy after Swiss takeover of Credit Suisse wiped out shareholders and SNB lost over a billion dollars
Image
8/ 👀"Saudi National Bank chair resigns following Credit Suisse comments"
ft.com/content/6b715d…

We wrote about how every story is an oil story last Thursday. Dumb banker fired Monday.

Conclusion: MBS is reading @polycrisis newsletter ;)
9/ Perhaps the stiffest challenge for a 2ºC Global CO2 budget: The "Unburnable Wealth of Nations". When Petrostates, some US allies others adversaries, can't fund fiscal budgets w Oil & become #StrandedCountries ht @davidmihalyi
foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/05/oil…
10/ Western investors are rushing to Middle east sovereign wealth funds who are raking in an extra trillion dollars from hi oil and gas prices

Saudi king MBS is the moneybags. Dubai's sheikh MBZ is the brains. Ignore the bombastic words,& follow the money
ft.com/content/33a985…
11/ Responding to recession fears, OPEC+ announces a surprise cut of more than 1 million barrels a day!

Prices likely to shoot up.

Money going straight from ppl's pockets into BigOil shareholders and into the treasuries of oil & gas producing nations.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
12/ "Saudi officials are at pains to say they don’t have a particular price target. But from their actions it’s clear Riyadh wants to keep Brent crude as close to $100 a barrel as it can."
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

MBS wants $$ to diversify economy from oil to finance + services.
13/ Adam Neumann of WeWork scam wants to take new real estate startup 'Flow' to Saudi Arabia.

Truly no bottom to Silicon Valley VCs and firms who contine to benefit from Gulf oil $
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

our newsletter on the Gulf's new game: phenomenalworld.org/series/the-pol… Image

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More from @70sBachchan

Albert Pinto Profile picture
Aug 14
“The market will solve climate”

The market:
“The market will solve climate”

The market: Electricity hungry BigTech created a credits "system is akin to buying the right from a fitter colleague to say you have cycled to work, even though you arrived by a car that runs on petrol." @CamillaHodgson
ft.com/content/2d6fc3…

Image
Image
“The market will solve climate”

The market: Oil Pipelines are ESG and low carbon! This giant tub of ice-cream won't make you fat because the tub is made of zero-calorie material & by athletes.
Read 9 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Aug 2
Netanyahu assassinates Haniyeh in Tehran & Hezbollah’s Shukr in Beirut. We are on cusp of regional war in Middle East. Forces are being deployed, Defences readied, Redlines of targets communicated.

Thread to track ‘response function’ of each adversary
nbcnews.com/news/world/hez…
Image
2/ In Israel's corner are US, UK, Egypt, Saudis, Jordan &Abraham Accord (informal milvalliance) with oil Kingdoms - UAE, Bahrain.

They have communicated to Israel that they will defend Israel if it is attacked by Iran axis but will not participate in a war initiated by Israel Image
3/ "US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles & drones launched against Israel on April 13...But this attack could be larger...including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions" Image
Read 22 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 26
Unbelievable vibe shift in the US with Kamala Harris
Image
The vibe shift, on the ground, in swing state Wisconsin

" Kamala Harris electrified the crowd in her first campaign rally as presumptive Democratic nominee. "I haven’t felt anything like this in many, many years,possibly since President Obama’s first run"
therecombobulationarea.news/p/in-west-alli…
Image
For 2yrs, gap between sentiment & economics widen. Did Kamala end vibecession? @kylascan
"There's layers to the cake:
How people expect things to be (expectations)
How things are supposed to be (theory)
How things are (reality)"

kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecess…
Read 6 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 12
Latest @polycrisis dispatch is out. @kmac & I show just how deep the finance-ecology-geopolitics rabbit hole Hurricane Beryl goes. Sign up here:

buttondown.email/polycrisisdisp…
2/ Ecology: With super hot oceans, we are very worried about this Atlantic hurricane season. THIRTY storms are predicted plus minus 5, depending on el nino

Finance: Worry that coming devastation will shake insurance industry to the core just as 2004-5 did
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa…
Image
3/London, Zurich, Bermuda are home of reinsurance.
Insurance model rely on risks being 1 Uncorrelated 2 Calculable 3 Paid for by mkt returns elsewhere
But #globalwarming upends Insurance
It correlates risks (global!); creates catastrophic fat-tails; and crimps returns everywhere. Image
Read 4 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 4
what reading one book by Brett Christophers does to a mf
‘while it is possible to prevent businesses from doing profitable things, it is impossible to make them do things they consider insufficiently profitable’. Why do all this 'market failure' nonsense
ft.com/content/b2b6fb…
Brett Chrisopher's work on Rentier Capitalism has been eyeopening. Asset Managers like Blackrock now run the roads we drive on; the pipes that supply our drinking water; the farmland that provides our food; electricity & heat. Nice profile

@ddhitchens
compactmag.com/article/how-as…
Under capitalism, profit expectations drive companies’ invstmt decisions. Building solar/wind & selling the electricity they generate, however, generally is not a very profitable business What sort of returns do investors earn, asks Brett Christophers time.com/6958606/climat…
Image
Read 9 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jun 4
Yes, BJP still sets the terms in the Indian parliament. But it will not have the decisive electoral majority of 2019-2024 lok sabha where it ran bills with zero opposition or consultation. After this election it will have to respect India’s opposition and democracy
India's stock market slides. Their logic?
BJP not winning in a landslide -> forced to have a NDA coalition government that will inevitably have to be more pro-welfare
--> hence the BJP cannot do nakedly pro-rich liberal reforms --> Oops, sell sell sell

Image
Adani's reversal tells you everything.
"In 9yrs of Modi’s tenure, Adani’s wealth grew from $8bn to $137bn. In 2022 alone, he made $72bn, which is more than the combined earnings of the world’s next 9 billionaires" ht @AnnPettifor

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

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Read 42 tweets

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