4/ @ProfessorKaren:""Gulf partners"(aka UAE) to do the work on financing green power across MENA,de-escalation &massive FDI effort. Political transformation as a US goal in MENA is over;Gulf state capitalism wins. Oil price flexibility expected in return"
5/ Rich countries had promised developing countries a measly $100 billion in climate $. They never coughed up
Last yr, US signed a $100Bn clean energy partnership w UAE to finance 100 GW in developing countries! We call it the outsourced energy transition phenomenalworld.org/analysis/stran…
6/Before OPEC,there were only Western Oil Cartels. "On both climate & politics, too many ppl resort to stereotypes of OPEC..that are all too convenient to US & European geopolitical interests"
Could it help Global South's just transition? ht @FuelOnTheFirepriceofoil.org/2020/02/10/wha…
7/ Well some bankers are getting punished. Just not European or American ones.
Saudi Crown Prince MBS fires Saudi national Bank chairman Al Khudairy after Swiss takeover of Credit Suisse wiped out shareholders and SNB lost over a billion dollars
8/ 👀"Saudi National Bank chair resigns following Credit Suisse comments" ft.com/content/6b715d…
We wrote about how every story is an oil story last Thursday. Dumb banker fired Monday.
Conclusion: MBS is reading @polycrisis newsletter ;)
9/ Perhaps the stiffest challenge for a 2ºC Global CO2 budget: The "Unburnable Wealth of Nations". When Petrostates, some US allies others adversaries, can't fund fiscal budgets w Oil & become #StrandedCountries ht @davidmihalyi foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/05/oil…
10/ Western investors are rushing to Middle east sovereign wealth funds who are raking in an extra trillion dollars from hi oil and gas prices
Saudi king MBS is the moneybags. Dubai's sheikh MBZ is the brains. Ignore the bombastic words,& follow the money ft.com/content/33a985…
11/ Responding to recession fears, OPEC+ announces a surprise cut of more than 1 million barrels a day!
Prices likely to shoot up.
Money going straight from ppl's pockets into BigOil shareholders and into the treasuries of oil & gas producing nations. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
12/ "Saudi officials are at pains to say they don’t have a particular price target. But from their actions it’s clear Riyadh wants to keep Brent crude as close to $100 a barrel as it can." bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
MBS wants $$ to diversify economy from oil to finance + services.
13/ Adam Neumann of WeWork scam wants to take new real estate startup 'Flow' to Saudi Arabia.
Truly no bottom to Silicon Valley VCs and firms who contine to benefit from Gulf oil $ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The vibe shift, on the ground, in swing state Wisconsin
" Kamala Harris electrified the crowd in her first campaign rally as presumptive Democratic nominee. "I haven’t felt anything like this in many, many years,possibly since President Obama’s first run" therecombobulationarea.news/p/in-west-alli…
For 2yrs, gap between sentiment & economics widen. Did Kamala end vibecession? @kylascan
"There's layers to the cake:
How people expect things to be (expectations)
How things are supposed to be (theory)
How things are (reality)"
2/ Ecology: With super hot oceans, we are very worried about this Atlantic hurricane season. THIRTY storms are predicted plus minus 5, depending on el nino
3/London, Zurich, Bermuda are home of reinsurance.
Insurance model rely on risks being 1 Uncorrelated 2 Calculable 3 Paid for by mkt returns elsewhere
But #globalwarming upends Insurance
It correlates risks (global!); creates catastrophic fat-tails; and crimps returns everywhere.
what reading one book by Brett Christophers does to a mf
‘while it is possible to prevent businesses from doing profitable things, it is impossible to make them do things they consider insufficiently profitable’. Why do all this 'market failure' nonsense ft.com/content/b2b6fb…
Brett Chrisopher's work on Rentier Capitalism has been eyeopening. Asset Managers like Blackrock now run the roads we drive on; the pipes that supply our drinking water; the farmland that provides our food; electricity & heat. Nice profile
Under capitalism, profit expectations drive companies’ invstmt decisions. Building solar/wind & selling the electricity they generate, however, generally is not a very profitable business What sort of returns do investors earn, asks Brett Christophers time.com/6958606/climat…
Yes, BJP still sets the terms in the Indian parliament. But it will not have the decisive electoral majority of 2019-2024 lok sabha where it ran bills with zero opposition or consultation. After this election it will have to respect India’s opposition and democracy
India's stock market slides. Their logic?
BJP not winning in a landslide -> forced to have a NDA coalition government that will inevitably have to be more pro-welfare
--> hence the BJP cannot do nakedly pro-rich liberal reforms --> Oops, sell sell sell
Adani's reversal tells you everything.
"In 9yrs of Modi’s tenure, Adani’s wealth grew from $8bn to $137bn. In 2022 alone, he made $72bn, which is more than the combined earnings of the world’s next 9 billionaires" ht @AnnPettifor
1/ "What's happening in Guyana isn't just happening there. All over the globe, oil companies are racing to tap as many of the remaining fossil fuel reserves as they can"
@jeffgoodell :
2/ This is not a a story of Guyana’s PM lecturing western liberals over hypocrisy climate, oil & Amazonian forests.
But a geopolitical story of developing country elites working with western firms (Exxon) to sell to western markets (oil goes to europe) phenomenalworld.org/analysis/offsh…
3/ "Guyana is now producing nearly as much oil as Venezuela -1 of the largest oil exporters since the 1920s & founder of OPEC
This amazing article on Exxon shows that the logic of imperial exploitation of natural resources is alive & kicking"-@GaraviniG phenomenalworld.org/analysis/offsh…
White House request to Congress for $106 billion in emergency funding for foreign aid.
A budget tells you more than words about actual priorities. Full breakdown in this PDF incl military aid to Ukraine, Israel, intl development (World bank) etc Thread whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
2/ UKRAINE: US so far has sent more than $75 billion to Ukraine. Of new $106B, Biden asks $61B for Ukraine.
~$50B military aid, loans for military gear, DOD stocks of weapons etc (Pg 4-27_
~$11.75B economic (pg 42)
3/Reminder why Biden's request for emergency funding looks the way it does-$106B for ukraine,israel,border, humanitarian. US congressional politics when governed by Dem president+Dem senate+Republican house makes funding requests look like a dogs breakfast