All statements coming out of Kiev right now should be completely dismissed. We’re sitting in the middle of a mass I’ve misinformation campaign designed to conceal the date and location of the offensive.
If they say they don’t have the equipment they do.
If they say they’re delaying it till summer expect it next week
If they talk about Kherson look to the LPR. If they start accumulating in the north look to the south.
My bet is they try to force Russia into declaring war.
Massive*
War doesn’t change anything by the way, it only serves the purpose of bringing eyes, money, and weapons to Ukraine. I Dont think war will be declared but that’s what I think one of Ukraines goals should be.
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To all the Pro-Russian accounts, please watch and study the cope that the Pro-Ukrainian side is displaying right now and try to prevent yourself from coping/Dooming over every little bit of news. It’s quite embarrassing to watch and it would be sad if the script just flipped.
In a month or so the Russians will be in a defensive posture and probably losing some minor territory if the Ukrainians decide to go on the offensive. It’s just the ebb and flow of this conflict. Russias primary interest is reducing an army while the Ukrainians need territory.
There will be hundreds of videos with burnt out equipment and dead AFU/Ru remember that such photos are not indicative of the happenings on the ground and are just a small percentage of the whole picture. For the Ukrainians losses will not be counted and failure isn’t an option.
Ukrainian probing attack in the Zaporozhye region was agian repulsed with losses. On this occasion 4 M113 APCs and infantry were lost in the probing operation. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Some predictions for the next few months of fighting in the Donbass 🧵
Chasov Yar is an obvious place to start as the battle for Artyomovsk begins to winds down just to the east. I see the Russians following their usual MO of surround/cut supply/storm. The high ground to the north and securing a bridgehead over the canal is key to the encirclement.
With the bridgehead south of Chasov Yar developing the Toretsk conglomeration that sits in a low area could be susceptible to an attack from the rear it just depends on the tactical situation in the area.(I have studied this settlement the least but consider it a possibility)
Prigozhin has just released a statement alleging that Leopard tanks are already in Chasiv Yar. The implications of this action may actually give us some insight into how the Ukrainian command is thinking and how critical the situation appears to be for them.
If leopards are in the country for less then a week (publicly) and already being sent to the front, the crews will be inadequately trained (unless mercenaries) and will be rather alone in the field considering the bulk of donated tanks are in transit or have not been sent yet.
To me this shows the extreme desperation that AFU command is in and how vitally important they see Bakhmut’s defense. This may also indicate that the planned offensive to Crimea is taking a back seat as equipment necessary for said offensive is being rushed to plug armor holes.
Russian economy stable after the full force of western sanctions on a “gas station economy”.
China, India, OPEC+, Turkey all closer allies to Russia then before the SMO started.
Russian military has successfully continued to attrit all of NATO through its proxy.
Everything is not perfect and smooth but it was supposed to go so much worse for Russia and it’s really not. No one planned for this to go a full 12 months but the US is now in a much worse position then it was in February, while Russia took a 2.1% GDP hit (less then Covid).
A full pivot to Eurasia is occurring and the period of a influential Europe is now coming to end. Pipelines are being built to china, trade alliance through Iran to India, Russian/Chinese spring in Africa is occurring, and the west is losing trust/allies faster then I can count.