AEI doesn't seasonally adjust its home price data. So these downward swings are larger than the ones I usually share.
When looking at "overvaluation" studies, you'll often see Western/Southern boomtowns with similar figures... but when looking at "price-to-rent ratios" you'll see the West was further detached from housing fundamentals
House prices don’t need further declines to go negative on a YoY basis… it just requires, at this point, hot spring ‘22 months dropping out of the 12-month window.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Boise home values rose every single month between November 2011 (i.e. its bottom of the crash) through June 2022 (i.e. its Pandemic Housing Boom peak).
Since, Boise has posted 8 consecutive month-over-month declines.
On the earnings call yesterday, a KB Home's executive said Boise was still "adjusting"
Source for the data above: Seasonally adjusted Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)