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https://twitter.com/inartecarlodoss/status/1639709996681244681

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KKGB Kitty (Carlo Casio)

@INArteCarloDoss

Mar 24

Time for a take-down. Believe many have paid attention to this hysterical tweet. Let’s break it down and see if DB is actually as sick as our friend here is claiming it to be.
1/4

1- DB is profitable and has over a third of it’s deposits insured. CS had 15% insured deposits and was pissing money
2- DB’s RoTBV is in line with Citi and better than SG
3- DB has no issues with mtm of it’s AFS and HTM portfolios as % of CET1
2/4

4- ECB has proved a much better regulator when it comes to IRR and DB sensitivity to 200 bp shock is lower than BNP, UBS, Intesa…
5- DB has strongest capital position (TCE/Adjusted Assets) since 1997
6- Leverage adjusted RoE is highest since 1991
3/4

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KKGB Kitty (Carlo Casio)

@INArteCarloDoss

Mar 12

You’ve all seen this low lifer chime in with his usual indecency begging for a handout. Am sure everyone is interested in understanding his lowly motives. Here they are.
1/4

Ugly truth is that allocators, not banks, are the guys who will be getting deluged with capital calls now as liquidity dries up (VCs trying to triage their portfolios!)... on top of that a lot of Shit Valley loans were collateralized with their crap private stock...
2/4

With the unwinding of SVB these will be called so we COULD see huge swaths of stock get absolutely dumped on secondary markets... which in turn could force these allocators to (finally) take appropriate marks vs current fantasy marks…
3/4

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KKGB Kitty (Carlo Casio)

@INArteCarloDoss

Mar 10

Getting a ton of panicked DMs about risk of contagions given large drops in banks yesterday. Here are some thoughts. Every hiking cycle ends-up creating some banking stress. This one is no exception. Silvergate and SVB are the weakest links by the virtue of their asset base
1/4

But issues facing them are now common issues for the sector. After a long period of having too much deposits to the point of pushing them away, competition for deposits came all too quickly just as asset quality risks are surging and lending standards are being tightened.
2/4

These issues are manageable for most banks but there are many small/regional banks that will be in the firing line. SVB was awash with liquidity, but it’s client base had been struggling with access to funding for a while and cash preservation became paramount.
3/4

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KKGB Kitty (Carlo Casio)

@INArteCarloDoss

Feb 9

Surprised no one asked the most obvious question: how did the #bigflip epiphany come to be? I mean before the data started to make it pretty obvious to me. Well, here’s how. I started to be puzzled by how naive the assumptions that market expectations were feeding on in Q4 23
1/4

Clearly this naivety was fed by narratives peddled by unsophisticated economists, journalists and investors. First level of naivety was to over-estimate the effects of the hiking cycle when private savings were so high. This was bluntly wrong to the naked eye.
2/4

Second level of naivety was the prevailing expectation that somehow inflation will be brought under control so quickly and with so little real economy pain. You clearly have to be totally oblivious to how the economy works to believe this. I mean the Fed stood a chance.
3/4

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KKGB Kitty (Carlo Casio)

@INArteCarloDoss

Feb 8

Can I have everyone’s attention? What’s happening in Turkey is a humanitarian disaster of large proportions. We can’t sit here in our comfort and be indifferent. Death toll passed 11 K and collapsed building are of same magnitude. There are over 40 K S&R deployed.
1/3

We have pre-screened 3 non-religious well vetted charities that are doing a lot of impactful ground work. I am opening a RoaringMeows enrollment window through charity donations to any of these 3 charities. If you have benefited from my alpha, this is a good way to pay back
2/3

RoaringMeows gives you access to a level of analysis and insights unavailable anywhere else and delivers a peek into the locked Kitty account. Take your chance because at some point that will be the only Twitter vehicle to stay accurate on my thinking. Details to follow
3/3

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KKGB Kitty (Carlo Casio)

@INArteCarloDoss

Jan 8

Current macro landscape is a landmine to read correctly, even for the most prescient. Big issue is that an unusually large sequence of exogenous and policy shocks and shifts in the last 3 years have created an unusually large cluster of various lags at almost every level.
1/4

Because most noise clusters around headlines, and because it takes a lot of tedious and granular work to understand the nature, and mostly duration of each lag, pretty much everyone is lost in translation. This is blurring the understanding of the current macro landscape.
2/4

Some non exhaustive examples are in no order:
1- the futile attention to ISM headlines when the new-orders minus inventories series had predicted it perfectly and as backlogs are actually clearing.
2- the focus on recessionary risks at the time when real disposable
3/4

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