Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

On Putin's comments about deploying Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus: He's right that Russia's actions have broad precedent in NATO nuclear sharing, but sharing nuclear warheads for Belarusian missiles goes beyond what NATO does now and is a precedent Putin may regret reviving.

You can see Putin's full comments (in Russian) here. They occur in a sit down interview with a journalist.
smotrim.ru/video/2586445

We already knew that Russia was moving toward adopting a "NATO-like" nuclear sharing arrangement with Belarus by modifying some Belarusian aircraft to carry nuclear weapons and transferring Iskander ballistic missiles. This is nothing new.

For example, Putin says: "We have already helped our Belarusian colleagues and equip their aircraft, aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force. Ten aircraft are ready for use of this type weapon." We knew this.

We previously knew that Russia was modifying some number of Belarusian aircraft to be able to carry nuclear weapons, although I had not seen the specific number before.
ria.ru/amp/20220826/s…

It also isn't clear to me which aircraft were modified or what was done to them. Lukashenko claimed it was the Su-24 and I suppose he would know, but those aircraft have been in reserve for a long time.

Second, Putin says "We have already handed over [the] Iskander missile complex ... From April 3 we will start training the crew and on July 1 we will finish the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus."

Again, we knew this, although the dates for training and construction of a warhead storage facility are new (and useful). Strangely, Belarus had implied the training in Russia was already complete.
reuters.com/world/europe/b…

The obvious thing to say is none of this has anything to do with depleted uranium. These changes have been a long time coming -- Lukashenko even changed the constitution in February 2022 to allow nuclear sharing. @walberque wrote a nice piece on this:
iiss.org/blogs/analysis…

Honestly, if I were Lukashenko and saw things like this shocking bit of reporting by @fmkaplan, I would probably want Russian nuclear weapons, too. Nuclear threats create demand for nuclear deterrence.
slate.com/news-and-polit…

Of course, that works both ways! All of the huffing and puffing about nuclear weapons drives up demand for deterrence in NATO countries, too. That's largely why you see Sweden and Finland seeking security through NATO membership instead of the TPNW.

I called the arrangement "NATO-like" nuclear sharing. That's too simple. The US does forward deploy nuclear gravity bombs in Europe and some NATO member countries maintain dual-capable aircraft equipped to carry those weapons. That's similar to what Russia says it will do.

On the other hand, the US no longer deploys forward-based nuclear weapons for allied *missile* forces. Fun fact! West Germany agreed to a side deal as part of the 1987 INF Treaty in which it eliminated its 72 Pershing-1A missiles.

So, for the record, Germany could rightly say that, since the INF Treaty is dead, it would like to replace to purchase replacements and access to US nuclear warheads just as Belarus is doing. Now, I don't really think Germany wants that. Poland, on the other hand ...

Putin is right that nuclear-sharing with Belarus has broad precedent in the NATO context, but Russia has for many years benefited from the fact that the US doesn't provide nuclear warheads for allied medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. He may regret this.