(((Michael Koplow))) Profile picture
Mar 26 7 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
After all of the chaos, protests, reservists quitting, and Galant being axed, reports that finally Netanyahu is considering pausing things until late April. Important to understand what this and what it isn't.
It isn't a decision to drop the overhaul. If Netanyahu reversed course, he'd lose his coalition 3 seconds later. It is a tactical move that relies on two things: a pledge from protesters that they will suspend protests too, and a bet that their momentum will dissipate as a result
The ultra-orthodox parties aren't going to desert Netanyahu whatever he decides, but Religious Zionism will. So the plan is put things on ice through Passover and the Israeli civil holidays (Memorial and Independence Days), hold some "talks" with the opposition, and then resume
You then paint the opposition as being the true obstinate parties, and hope that because the protesters stopped for a month, it will be hard to motivate the same numbers to come out again week after week
You also count on the new defense minister (Dichter) and IDF commanders to keep on impressing on troops and reservists the importance of serving, perhaps some are spooked by Ramadan tensions, maybe another incident with Hizballah or Iran, and the reservist strike loses steam
In the meantime, you cede no ground on the judicial selection committee but compromise on the override (I explained why here israelpolicyforum.org/2023/02/23/why…) and you hope to get through this in one piece after dividing and conquering
I don't know if this will ultimately work, but I'll bet that is the bet that Bibi is making. He is not charting a new course but simply making a course correction in the face of pressure that can no longer just be waved away, and after a series of bad miscalculations

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with (((Michael Koplow)))

(((Michael Koplow))) Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @mkoplow

Jan 7, 2021
This is going to be an unusually personal thread but bears putting out there. It relates to the people who have been expressing in different ways their realization after yesterday that their dismissal of those who warned about Trump’s authoritarianism was wrong or naive. THREAD
I used to be a very politically active conservative Republican. Weekly Standard subscription almost from the very beginning, worked for NY GOP campaigns (Pataki, D'Amato, Dennis Vacco for AG), college Republicans, founding member of NYU Law's libertarian law journal, etc.
I was a passionate supporter of the Iraq War, which was launched my first year in law school, because I was committed to the neoconservative vision of bringing democracy to the Middle East. This led to arguments with classmates that increased as the U.S. occupation went on
Read 10 tweets
Jan 7, 2021
One of the nice things about Trump is that he telegraphs what he’s going to do. He said he would never concede. He said any election he loses is fundamentally rigged. He said he would not commit to a peaceful transfer of power. Now, apply that to his pattern on pardons -
He basically issues pardons to three categories of people: Those who have helped him personally (Stone, Flynn, etc.), those who were convicted of political corruption, and those who committed violence against civilians overseas. Presumably we can expect more pardons to come.
Were I involved in today’s mayhem, I would fully expect Trump to extricate me from any trouble given his pardon category preferences. Not that trouble seems forthcoming given the nice escort these folks got out of the Capitol and how understanding police have been on curfew.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 25, 2020
As we approach July 1 and the Trump administration holds meetings to figure out what to convey to Bibi about annexation, the likelihood appears that Israel will do something less than the Trump plan’s 30% of the West Bank. It’s worth watching who moves the goalposts and how 1/
A smaller move - annexation of just Gush Etzion and Ma’ale Adumim, or an announcement of extension of sovereignty to settlements that gets implemented later - will be seized upon by many as not a big deal, as something worth supporting, as the “centrist” or “realistic” path 2/
When you see people and organizations make that claim, understand it for the abject bullshit that it is. If you want to support it, go right ahead, but at least embrace it as the radical departure from anything and everything that has come before that it will actually be 3/
Read 7 tweets
Sep 10, 2019
Netanyahu’s statement today about annexing the Jordan Valley on the day after the election and then proceeding with applying sovereignty to all West Bank settlement after the Trump plan is electioneering. None of this is happening today and he can’t do it unilaterally 1/
But that doesn’t make what he did any less dangerous. It was brilliant politics, and even if he can’t or doesn’t see it through, it will have a more damaging long-term effect by shifting the Overton window on this issue 2/
What makes Jordan Valley first so smart is that it can be painted as a security issue rather than an ideological one. The Jordan Valley is important security-wise, and a two-state deal will have some provision for an Israeli security presence there for that reason 3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 15, 2019
THREAD: Banning Omar and Tlaib from Israel is possibly the most short-sighted and counterproductive thing that the Israeli government will have done in years 1/
Having them come to Israel and see the situation firsthand while hearing directly from Israelis is the most effective way of introducing some complications into their worldview, but even if their itinerary is completely one-sided, keeping them out is still myopic 2/
They are sitting Members of Congress. They are literal representatives of the American government and the American people. It doesn’t matter who they meet with and what they want to see; Israel is keeping out elected American officials 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 23, 2019
I’m still on vacation and pledged not to engage with anything until Monday, but having just read the Trump economic peace plan, all I can say is that it is the Monty Python sketch of Israeli-Palestinian peace initiatives 1/
Sure, it would be great to have the West Bank and Gaza to be a trading hub like Singapore. How’s that going to work without an airport or seaport? For that matter, how will exports happen at all without Palestinian control of its borders? 2/
The West Bank and Gaza are going to be tech hubs despite only having gotten access to 3G last year? Palestinians are supposed to become passionate about corporate governance without having any independent political governance? 3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(