Lots to say about the new Gallup poll showing for the first time that more Americans sympathize with Palestinians than with Israelis. Nobody should be surprised, and it also should not be taken as fatalistic. It does provide clarity on what to do and what to avoid, and has implications for potential conflict with Iran. A 🧵:

https://x.com/mkoplow/status/2027324374525604067

For decades, Americans sympathized with Israelis by large margins. This, and not the Israel lobby, is what drove US policy. And as I argued 15 years ago, the reasons Americans sympathized with Israel were not strategic, but ideological and values-driven tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.108…

Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump today is interesting in that their prior discussions have generally been Netanyahu pushing on an open door with specific details to be worked out. This time is different 1/ The ostensible reason for the meeting is the new 17% tariff on Israel and Bibi’s efforts to reduce or remove it. We’ll see if he’s successful, but the outcome is definitely not prebaked. The Israeli govt tried to avert it ahead of time by removing its tariffs to no avail 2/

It should not surprise anyone that the Trump administration is doing this, or that there is all of a sudden very visible daylight between the U.S. and Israel. First, because contrary to the claims of some, there is always some daylight between the two countries 1/

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1897308058591850787

Second, because Trump's entire approach to foreign policy is transactional, no matter who is involved. Why anyone ever thought that Israel would be subject to some exclusive exception is beyond me. This doesn't make Trump anti-Israel; he just doesn't treat Israel differently 2/

For anyone unsure of how Netanyahu is responding to Trump's election, appointing Yechiel Leiter as the next Israeli ambassador to Washington is as clear a signal is it gets. It is placing all of his chips on a singular policy direction 1/ Dermer was seen as tilting toward the Republican side of the aisle, but he wasn't viewed as an ideologue. Leiter is as ideological as it gets, having lived in Hebron, worked for the Yesha Council and Kohelet, and authoring blueprints for how Israel can and should annex Area C 2/

Netanyahu firing Galant is not a surprise. Given the bad blood between them and Netanyahu's desire to squelch any and all dissension within the coalition ranks, it was inevitable. But the timing is notable for a few reasons. First, it comes on the heels of Galant yesterday approving a round of 7,000 new draft orders for Haredi conscripts. This is after 3,000 draft notices for Haredim were issued earlier this year, and only 230 of them reported to the IDF induction center.

Surreal to watch March 2023 play out again in May 2024, with Galant publicly challenging Netanyahu over the central policy issue facing Israel. Last time, it was judicial overhaul. This time, it is Israeli strategy in Gaza and whether Israel will reoccupy the territory. Last time, Netanyahu fired Galant, and then backtracked after furious protests. Calls to fire Galant abound this time too, and protests in Israel have already been heating up in recent weeks, so we may get a repeat. Here are some possible scenarios:

There's a lot of obfuscation on all sides about what's really going on and what's really at stake in argument over Rafah and the Biden decision to withhold weapons from Israel. A few points to keep in mind: 1. Restricting assistance to Israel while attempting to get Hamas to agree to a hostage deal absolutely creates a Hamas incentive to hold out. No reason for Sinwar to think that he won't get an effective ceasefire—or at least a real limit to IDF operations—for free now

I wrote the below thread two weeks ago on why the reasonableness standard is a big deal, so no need to rehash it. But now that the bill has become law, a few additional thoughts 1/

https://twitter.com/mkoplow/status/1678822408579432448

Leaving aside the implications of the law itself, what makes this moment very scary for Israel is the way in which this has gone down. It was not only done in the face of widespread (and likely majority) opposition, but is being celebrated because of that opposition 2/

Israel is erupting today over the Knesset passing the first reading of a bill to abolish the Supreme Court's use of the reasonability test in order to judge whether government action is valid or not. It's hard to see why this is a big deal, but it is 1/ If Israel had a constitution and a bill of rights, arguing that the courts shouldn't have the ability to strike down govt action that is "extremely unreasonable" would make more sense. But Israel has neither of these things, which is why the reasonability standard is important 2/

After all of the chaos, protests, reservists quitting, and Galant being axed, reports that finally Netanyahu is considering pausing things until late April. Important to understand what this and what it isn't. It isn't a decision to drop the overhaul. If Netanyahu reversed course, he'd lose his coalition 3 seconds later. It is a tactical move that relies on two things: a pledge from protesters that they will suspend protests too, and a bet that their momentum will dissipate as a result

This is going to be an unusually personal thread but bears putting out there. It relates to the people who have been expressing in different ways their realization after yesterday that their dismissal of those who warned about Trump’s authoritarianism was wrong or naive. THREAD I used to be a very politically active conservative Republican. Weekly Standard subscription almost from the very beginning, worked for NY GOP campaigns (Pataki, D'Amato, Dennis Vacco for AG), college Republicans, founding member of NYU Law's libertarian law journal, etc.

One of the nice things about Trump is that he telegraphs what he’s going to do. He said he would never concede. He said any election he loses is fundamentally rigged. He said he would not commit to a peaceful transfer of power. Now, apply that to his pattern on pardons - He basically issues pardons to three categories of people: Those who have helped him personally (Stone, Flynn, etc.), those who were convicted of political corruption, and those who committed violence against civilians overseas. Presumably we can expect more pardons to come.

As we approach July 1 and the Trump administration holds meetings to figure out what to convey to Bibi about annexation, the likelihood appears that Israel will do something less than the Trump plan’s 30% of the West Bank. It’s worth watching who moves the goalposts and how 1/ A smaller move - annexation of just Gush Etzion and Ma’ale Adumim, or an announcement of extension of sovereignty to settlements that gets implemented later - will be seized upon by many as not a big deal, as something worth supporting, as the “centrist” or “realistic” path 2/

Netanyahu’s statement today about annexing the Jordan Valley on the day after the election and then proceeding with applying sovereignty to all West Bank settlement after the Trump plan is electioneering. None of this is happening today and he can’t do it unilaterally 1/ But that doesn’t make what he did any less dangerous. It was brilliant politics, and even if he can’t or doesn’t see it through, it will have a more damaging long-term effect by shifting the Overton window on this issue 2/

THREAD: Banning Omar and Tlaib from Israel is possibly the most short-sighted and counterproductive thing that the Israeli government will have done in years 1/ Having them come to Israel and see the situation firsthand while hearing directly from Israelis is the most effective way of introducing some complications into their worldview, but even if their itinerary is completely one-sided, keeping them out is still myopic 2/

I’m still on vacation and pledged not to engage with anything until Monday, but having just read the Trump economic peace plan, all I can say is that it is the Monty Python sketch of Israeli-Palestinian peace initiatives 1/ Sure, it would be great to have the West Bank and Gaza to be a trading hub like Singapore. How’s that going to work without an airport or seaport? For that matter, how will exports happen at all without Palestinian control of its borders? 2/

Something that American Jews need to keep in mind amidst the renewed attention to religion and state issues in Israel is that the priorities here are not the same as in Israel despite the fact that the foes may be the same 1/ Avigdor Liberman wants to end the Haredi monopoly over religious institutions in Israel and rails against Smotrich’s endorsement of a state run according to Torah law, but his goal is different than American Jews who share the same goals and desires 2/

Initial thoughts on the Israeli election in tweet form (more extensive thoughts to come later): Netanyahu will form a relatively narrow rightwing coalition again, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, but there are some important developments on the margins 1/ First is Bennett and Shaked failing to make the Knesset, which is enormous. It’s not just about 4 seats that go elsewhere, but about the fact that the two of them hatched Hayemin Hehadash as a vehicle to be the post-Bibi leaders of the right bloc. Now they’ll be sitting home 2/

Some quick points to make before I sign off for the night about the big merger that just took place between Gantz and Lapid 1/6 It is great to see two politicians who both deeply believe that each should solely be prime minister set their egos aside and agree to a rotation, particularly since each has the precise strength that the other lacks 2/6

THREAD I have a personal anecdote to share that is a perfectly sad microcosm of everything wrong with the way Israel treats information as a threat and American Jews as objects of suspicion 1/ My dad was in Israel for the past two weeks, spending one week visiting me and the fam while we're here and spending the second week in the West Bank with other American Jewish leaders on an Encounter Leadership Intensive aimed at hearing the Palestinian narrative firsthand 2/

Don’t underplay the significance of Natalie Portman canceling her Genesis Prize trip to Israel. This is not about a wealthy actress who is turning down a $2 million prize that she doesn’t need, or about the BDS crowd sinking their claws into another naive celebrity 1/ Natalie Portman is not an Israel hater. She has proudly embraced not only her Jewish heritage, but her Israeli heritage. She speaks fluent Hebrew. She knows the country intimately. The sum total of her knowledge isn’t from Ha’aretz English 2/