Thread by @TrentTelenko

This is a Russian casualty/Russian culmination thread based on this latest Ukrainian General Staff report.

The Russians are at 170,550 dead right now.

What does that mean?

1/

I've gone deeply into the subject of battle casualties, non-battle casualties and KIA to WIA casualty ratios in previous threads like this. So I'm going to do cliff notes to cut to the strategic point.

At a 2 dead to 3 wounded casualty ratio,

2/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533491402721607689

Russia has suffered 255,825 wounded in action on top of 170,550 dead.

That is a total KIA plus WIA total of 426,375 Russian battle casualties.

This doesn't include non-battle casualties, for which see the link below.

3/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1620161513066762240/

Using the US Army Korean War non-battle casualty ratio for the Russians in Ukraine adds a further 30% to both KIA & WIA numbers.

That is, another 127,913 Russian soldiers.

The combined total of battle and non-battle casualties is 544,288 Russian soldiers to date.

4/

Russia invaded Ukraine with ~120,000 and increased it to 190,000 by the end of March 2022.

In May-June 2022 the next Russian conscript class came in with ~120,000 and Putin annexed Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhia to Russia so he could use conscripts in Ukraine.
5/

Then he did a 'stop loss" on existing ...conscripts and contract troops indefinitely.

In September 2022 Russia started a mobilization of 300,000 "mobiks."

190,000 plus 120,000, plus 300,000 is 610,000.

6/

610,000 less 544,288 is 65,712.

Now I hear all the usual suspects saying "Ukrainian numbers must be B.S." The innumerate are like that.🙄

The Russian Army has never either Wagner PMC nor the LNR/DPR colonial militia as "Russian Army." Ukraine does.

7/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1567575197716303872

There were 24,000 LNR/DPR militia at the start of the war and Wagner PMC burned through 30,000 casualties by February 2023.

8/

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1626842752943108098

Adding back the 54,000 Wagner & colonial militia forces as "bullet catchers" for the Russian Army gives a strength level on the order of 119,712.

The Russian colonists also did their own mobilization which took every Ukrainian male in occupied territories between 18 and 55.

9/

The floor for that LNR/DPR mobilization is 15,000 and it was likely double that. Call it 22,500 as the most likely case.

Additionally, there are still many thousands of Wagner PMC. For the purpose of this analysis, lets call it 10,000.

Adding 32,500 to 119,712 is 152,212.
10/

It has been five months since the 300,000 mobiks of the 1st mobilization started arriving in October 2022.

The average of a 824 KIA a day started in February 2023 and it's 26 March 2023.

Given Nov/Dec 2022 were over 500 KIA a day. The 300K Russian Mobiks
11/

...brought in since September 2022 are all casualties by no later than the end of this month.

Assuming it hasn't happened already, given the Sept-Oct. 2022 casualties.

11/

https://twitter.com/zeeginttas/status/1639964459186700288

There is likely more than 152,212 Russian in Ukraine right now simply from standing forces stripped from standing Russian military units
but nothing over another 50,000.

In so many words Russia only has more meat in the pipeline, without any operational reserves to speak of
12/

...inside of Ukraine.

We are seeing a lot of signs of this with the way the Russians are treating their wounded.

This @ChrisO_wiki thread is one example.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1639530708812046337

13/

The use of Stalin era 'blocking units' is another.

See this @wartranslated thread.

14/

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1639390679670374403

So, if we have all of this going on, why aren't Western Intelligence agencies going to town screaming this from the roof tops?

Short form:

It isn't in their interests to talk about battle casualties, casualty ratios, non-battle casualties and the implications of same.

15/

A lot of the US political Left, media and academics point to defense contractors as the real parasites in the national security state.

They are not.

Defense contractors want a military build up to face China because the cost plus contract profit margins.

16/

Buying missile & artillery ammo for Ukraine, or refurbishing Cold War surplus equipment, is low margin firm fixed price all the way.

The real parasites here are the Western National Security bureaucracies whose budgets are based on a strong Russian threat.

17/

Russia losing to Ukraine and getting kicked out of Ukraine's 1991 borders make a whole lot of the Western permanent national security states "Surplus to Needs."

"Learn Mandarin" would become the "Learn to code" put down many US tech class folks hit the working class with.

18/

The failure of Western "Russian analysts" to mention the decades documented concept of non-battle casualties a single time in the entire Russo-Ukrainian War is the "Poker Tell" in that regard.

The thing is, not talking about it doesn't mean it hasn't been happening.

19/

The failure of Bakhmut to fall to Russia is just one of many events related to the systematic undercount of Russian casualties to date.

We will see more when the Ukrainian counter offensives arrive.

Perhaps enough to require some deserving people to learn Mandarin.

20/20 End

@threadreaderapp unroll please