Thread by @Laque_davis

1. Just finished watching the official announcement of #ZanuPFprimaryelections preliminary results, by the party Commissar.

The results are "preliminary", in that they still have to be approved by the party politburo, particularly as some "loosing" candidates are rejecting them.

2. I was following the press briefing for two reasons.

Firstly, ZanuPF is the ruling party. Consequently, whatever they do naturally affects us all.

Secondly, I was particularly interested in the figures which the party actually managed to attract, in it's internal processes.

3. For all intent and processes, through the primaries, ZanuPF has officially launched its election processes.

In fact, ZanuPF was extra-interested in showing its might, and how it has retained interest in its internal processes, which may mirror the 2023 national polls.

4. Disappointingly, Mike Bimha started off the preliminary official results announcement by stating "I'm not going to announce the figures, but names of participants & winners"

It perhaps confirmed a fear long exposed by social media, which is that participation was actually low

5. A statement by ZanuPF Spokesperson, recently claimed that ZanuPF officially had 11k cells, & a membership of 4.5 million

These elections were supposed to support this.

But of-course, those Mutsvangwa figures are a dangerous hallucination.
No party has 4.5 million members.

6. But away from all this, I've been separately paying attention to the interestingly high number of "spoiled votes", in pretty much every ward & constituency.

This exposing phenomenon, creates interesting dynamics for the Opposition, coming election day.
But dangers as well.

7. Here are some spoiled votes stats, from #zanupfprimaries :

Goromonzi South- 1189
Maramba-Pgungwe- 1675
Matobo-Mangwe- 238
Murehwa North- 576
Binga South- 179
Guruve South- 326
Guruve North- 1131
Mutasa Central- 722
Mutasa North- 495
Chimanimani West- 661
Magunje- 471

8. One thing thats immediately striking from those stats is that they're "rural constituencies", with sitting ZanuPF legislators.

They become even more interesting, when you juxtapose the total number of registered voters- against- voters in the primaries- against- spoiled votes

9. The interesting part is that ZanuPF actually has means to marshall citizens, particularly in rural & peri-urban communities, to attend their gatherings & participate in their process.

The fact that many apparently braved out of the processes altogether is interesting.

10. Secondly, the fact that where there were somewhat a "high attendance", there were very high stats of spoiled votes, in some instances higher than the votes received by some candidates, would be concerning.

It brings into context, a number of fascinating electoral dynamics.

11. One dynamic is obviously the literacy issue, and health challenges, which naturally adds to spoiled votes.

In fact, it would seem like one of ZanuPF system of rigging, i.e. the forced use of "assisted voters", was very low and/or not recorded during their internal primaries.

12. Another dynamic could be that it's an internal protest, where ZanuPF members expressed disgruntlement by spoiling some ballots.

Reasons could include the fact that for those particular Zanupf members, their preferred candidates weren't on the ballot, for whatever reason.

13. The last dynamic, which not only carries more weight, but is also one of the worst kept secret, is that many of these votes weren't from ZanuPF members.

These are actually supporters of the Oppo, or even none-aligned people, who were "forced" to participate in the processes.

14. In fact, it would've been interesting, if we had a way of reading these spoiled ballots.

There certainly would be a lot of interesting names written on those spoiled ballots, including aspiring candidates who aren't even members of ZanuPF.

Whichever way, this is interesting

15. But perhaps ZanuPF, and particularly the winning candidates will find comfort in knowing that no party has enough membership to win any election.

The voters who actually swing the votes, are not subscribed members of a party, for whatever reason.

It's our electoral reality

16. Yet still, the main Opposition will also find comfort in knowing that in the face of intimidation, coercion & use of state resources, ZanuPF has indeed flattered to deceive.

The plan now would be figuring out how many of these citizens can be drawn to vote for Opp candidates

17. Naturally, the best response for the Opp will be to expedite its internal processes & decide on its own candidates, so that they start campaigning.

But not only that, the party has to bring forward pretty much the best candidates it possibly can, for all available seats.

18. That being said, we sometimes make the mistake of assuming that it's only the Opp that learns from ZanuPF's mishaps.

The party itself does too.

In fact, it's times like these, when it appears weakened & desperate, that it becomes the most dangerous

Expect them to misbehave

19. Will be making a series of other threads, reacting to some developments, & some observations, as we go.

There are a lot of other dynamics, including the candidates who won in these elections, & what this means for ZanuPF, for ED, & for the Opposition.

Until then...

enkosi!