Todd N. Tucker Profile picture
Mar 27, 2023 12 tweets 8 min read Read on X
What do collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature mean for Biden's industrial policy?

Over at @DemJournal, @STOmarova and I have thoughts, in this new essay:

Industrial Policy Requires Public, Not Just Private, Equity.

🧵👇
democracyjournal.org/arguments/indu…
We argue that the turn to industrial policy can play a vital role in reconnecting finance to the real economy—but only if industrial policy is seen holistically as a comprehensive economic development strategy, and not just as a way to onshore the making of particular widgets.
Thus, the attaching of conditions to industrial policy loans and grants should be seen as a normal part of development lending (as it is at World Bank and elsewhere) - not a distraction. @lenorepalladino and @Isabel_Estevez_ have been really sharp on this.
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/t…
Industrial policy is about winding desirable industries up, but also winding undesirable industries down, as @stephsterlingdc and I write here.
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/a…
Saule and I point to the crypto industry as a good candidate for wind-down.

Its benefits were oversold, and it's blocking climate progress in key locales like the Intalco aluminum plant in WA state. Image
Biden's recent budget moves in interesting directions here, with taxes on crypto electricity usage, as @jimtankersley reported.
We conclude on the value of a "public option for private equity" in the industrial policy space, including through a National Investment Authority. This can help get around capacity constraints in existing federal agencies, and revives and improves on best practices from FDR era.
Movement towards NIA-like institutions can happen even in divided government, as the 1932-33 genesis of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation shows.
politico.com/news/magazine/…
At a time when there's more agreement on the need for speed in clean energy deployment, it's important to note finance and financial elites can be a key source of slowdown, as @joeldodge07 @michaelsjoel @lenorepalladino and I argue here.
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/p…
To read the essay by Saule and me in full, head over to @DemJournal.
democracyjournal.org/arguments/indu…

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More from @toddntucker

May 14
NEW from me @rooseveltinst:

Why This Matters: Section 301 Tariffs on Electric Vehicles.

The White House just announced new trade restrictions on a variety of Chinese imports.

What's this all about?

A thread🧵🧵🧵

rooseveltinstitute.org/2024/05/14/sec…
Section 301 is an important component of US trade laws going back to 1974.

It gives the US government additional tools to use when trade agreements aren't as effective as they need to be.
crsreports.congress.gov/product/detail…
Image
This is the result of a 4 year review since the beginning of the Biden administration, which has been evaluating whether various Chinese policies comport with US trade laws.

The conclusion: they have not, and there are new concerns to boot.
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Read 17 tweets
Apr 11
Fantastic panel @HarvardMWC on lessons we can learn from global experiences with industrial policy, with @rodrikdani @straightedge @myrto_kaloup and @rohlamba.

Myrto talking Chinese shipbuilding excess capacity. Has 50-70% market share today. Image
Conference organized by @Rohan_Sandhu. Details here.
hks.harvard.edu/centers/wiener…
@Rohan_Sandhu Myrto says Chinese shipbuilding not efficient when taken on their own, but had clear benefits in terms of outward exports / lowering transportation costs / enhancing military capacity.
nber.org/papers/w26075
Read 23 tweets
Apr 3
NEW from me @RooseveltFwd: How Biden's comments on US Steel's tie up with Japan's Nippon company indicate what a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class might look like in practice.
rooseveltforward.org/2024/04/03/bid…
The idea of reorienting foreign economic policy to build labor power and combat inequality was articulated by @JakeSullivan46 @jennifermharris and others in a series of essays and reports in 2019-20.
foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/07/ame…
This doesn't mean that traditional diplomacy has to die out. Indeed, as @dimi and @KanaInagaki report, even after Biden's comments, the US and Japan are slated to make the biggest upgrade to their alliance in 60 years.
ft.com/content/df9999…
Read 10 tweets
Mar 25
BREAKING from @AP: @Energy agency announces $6 billion to slash emissions in industrial facilities.

@JenMcDermottAP @anniesartor @SecGranholm @alizaidi46 and me on why this is game changing, and could allow the US to catch up/ lead on industrial decarb.
apnews.com/article/climat…
The mix of projects funded here is exciting, including a range of technologies to be deployed by US leader @CLE_CLF, and even projects by Sweden's SSAB.
energy.gov/oced/industria…
For more on the history of Sweden's investments in green steel, read @JonasAlgers @rooseveltinst here.
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/l…
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
"EVEN IF YOU’RE CONVINCED that unionized labor is sclerotic and expensive and an impediment to production, cutting them out creates the very real risk of losing the coalition necessary to sustain green industrial policy."
@ddayen responds to @ezraklein.
prospect.org/economy/2023-0…
I am sympathetic to Klein's wish to live in a society with more corporatist labor arrangements.
https://t.co/5jiumaovWrnytimes.com/2023/07/16/opi…
Image
Here's a report about the corporatist ideal, along with ideas at the margin to move towards that goal.
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/s…
Read 21 tweets
May 28, 2023
Want government that builds super fast, without the pesky guardrails of civil society input, local government consultation, or environmental or safety permitting?

Ladies and gentlemen, Erdogan's Turkey.

Via @suzyhans @NewYorker.
newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…
The last 70 years of development economics has been technocrats & engineers slowly learning that you can't wish away politics and institutions. If your developmental strategy can't work politically and institutionally, it can't work.

See @Isabel_Estevez_.
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/u…
That's why @ddayen's framework @TheProspect of A Liberalism That Builds Power is so useful. If you try to Either/Or your way through economic development or (countervailing) power-building, you could end up with neither.
prospect.org/economy/2023-0…
Read 10 tweets

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