Tatarigami_UA Profile picture
Mar 27, 2023 13 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/ Various russian Telegram channels share a video that allegedly shows Ukrainians stopping a car with a woman and a child (the child is not seen), engaging in a verbal alteration, and then shooting at the car. This looks like a staged video, for the following reasons: Image
2/ The location where the video was filmed has reportedly been identified by the Telegram channel "Moscow Calling" as 47.9769473, 37.9534718. Source: t.me/m0sc0wcalling/… Image
3/ The identified location, 47.9769473, 37.9534718, is situated deep within the occupied territory of Donetsk, as can be seen on the DeepState map. Image
4/ The soldiers in the video are wearing yellow armbands, which is an uncommon practice among Ukrainian soldiers who currently wear green armbands. This raises suspicions about the authenticity of the soldiers depicted in the video. Image
5/ The fact that the woman was driving with a dashcam is another cause for suspicion. It is illegal to film the movement of Ukrainian troops, and one would not be able to pass a checkpoint with a dashcam. Thus, the presence of a dashcam raises huge questions
6/ The car depicted in the video appears to be very clean, which is an unlikely condition for a vehicle traveling in a war zone. This gives the impression that the car was recently washed for the purpose of filming the video.
7/ The soldiers in the video appear to assault the woman because she speaks Russian, which is a trope that is often utilized in propaganda. The portrayal of the soldiers as two masked Ukrainian nationalists stopping a car with a woman and a child and then
8/ abusing them because they speak russian appears to be a manufactured narrative from russian propaganda playbook. Additionally, the woman's name appears to have a Muslim origin, which aligns with recent fake propaganda videos circulated by Russians,
9/ showing fake Ukrainian soldiers burning the Quran. It is worth noting that the location of the incident is deliberately obscure, making it difficult to determine where it took place. Additionally, all soldiers are conveniently wearing masks, obscuring their identity
10/ Furthermore, there is additional evidence suggesting that the video is staged. However, I will withhold further analysis until it is completed. The full video can be accessed via this link: t.me/readovkanews/5…
Additional: As the user @MrClarkyofAxel pointed out, the cross on back of the car is not a regular one, which is used by Ukrainian troops, but stylized Balkenkreuz, that resembled German troops during WW-2 period. Another clear indications of a staged propaganda piece.
Further analysis by @EjShahid provides independent confirmation of the location Image
The story takes an unexpected turn. Russian famous telegram channel, with over 300,000 subscribers, has admitted that the video is fake:
"The video is fake, our crooked exercise. In conducting such information operations, there is still much for us to learn and improve upon." Image

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

May 6
How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.

🧵Thread: Image
2/ Tariff wars:

China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
3/ Tariff war will obviously exacerbate the Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth, the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 19
Thread🧵

1/ The exhaustion of Russia’s vehicle fleet is becoming increasingly evident. The reduced use of armored vehicles and the growing reliance on civilian: including motorcycles, golf carts, and vans, continues to signal a degradation in Russian maneuvering capabilities.
2/ During the winter, outside of Kursk, Russia achieved mostly tactical gains, notably in Kharkiv Oblast, the Chasiv Yar area and Kurakhove–Velyka Novosilka axis. While these advances have been troubling for Ukraine, Russia has so far failed to capitalize on them strategically.
3/ Despite slow progress, Russia still retains the resources and capability to conduct active offensive operations through the summer and fall of 2025. However, as I noted in my analysis last year, the diminishing returns will determine whether Russia will continue this war
Read 7 tweets
Apr 10
While our team continues working on the latest updates, here are a few updates on the current state of the frontline:

1/ Despite holding the advantage along much of the frontline, Russia’s winter campaign yielded limited results - indicating Ukraine’s situation is not dire
2/ The Pokrovsk area now appears more stable than in February. At that time, Russian forces had established a foothold in Zvirove, with deeper advances into Pokrovsk looking imminent. Since then, not only have the Russians stalled, but they have actually lost some ground.
3/ The overall composition and number of Russian forces near Sumy oblast currently seem insufficient to support a large-scale offensive operation deep into the region.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 30
One of the biggest problems of this war is that Ukraine and the West haven’t clearly defined what "winning" looks like. This has allowed the Russians to present the "Istanbul Agreements" as the only viable negotiation framework, due to the absence of a well-defined alternative.
2/ The "Victory Plan" presented by Zelensky is not a true negotiation framework, and it didn’t resonate with the previous administration, let alone the current White House administration. Of course, there are alternative options, such as Russia retreating to 1991 borders
3/ The problem is that Russia won't do that, and there is no realistic enforcement mechanism, short of intervention. The United States isn’t going to bomb Russia. This raises the question: what does a "desired outcome," based on the realities on the ground, actually look like?
Read 8 tweets
Mar 25
Almost every day, we hear about strikes against targets inside Russia, but we rarely get the full picture of their actual impact on the war. Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight have joined efforts to analyze hundreds of data points to answer this question.

🧵Thread Image
2/ Our research covered the period from September 2024 to February 2025, divided into two sections: strikes on military targets, infrastructure, and on the energy sector. We found that strikes on Russia’s energy sector caused at least $658 million in damage over ~6 months
3/ The real damage to the Russian energy sector and the economy as a whole may be higher. In at least 67 out of 100 cases, Ukrainian strikes were successful, while in another 33 cases the result of the attacks remains unknown or it is impossible to prove Ukraine's involvement. Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 21
Kursk Offensive: A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight.
A condensed version of report for X. 🧵Thread:

1/ With Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sudzha, the operation is clearly approaching its conclusion though it is not yet entirely over.Image
2/ To assess the operation, not in isolation, but within the broader context of the war, we broke down the Kursk operation into 3 key questions: whether its geopolitical objectives were met, whether the attrition rate was favorable, and whether it achieved battlefield success
3/ To determine equipment attrition, we analyzed data from OSINT analyst @naalsio26, who tracks losses across multiple frontlines. Our graphs show losses from August to March but are not exhaustive, as they exclude some retreat-related losses. The cut-off date was March 10. Image
Read 20 tweets

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