1/ Various russian Telegram channels share a video that allegedly shows Ukrainians stopping a car with a woman and a child (the child is not seen), engaging in a verbal alteration, and then shooting at the car. This looks like a staged video, for the following reasons:
2/ The location where the video was filmed has reportedly been identified by the Telegram channel "Moscow Calling" as 47.9769473, 37.9534718. Source: t.me/m0sc0wcalling/…
3/ The identified location, 47.9769473, 37.9534718, is situated deep within the occupied territory of Donetsk, as can be seen on the DeepState map.
4/ The soldiers in the video are wearing yellow armbands, which is an uncommon practice among Ukrainian soldiers who currently wear green armbands. This raises suspicions about the authenticity of the soldiers depicted in the video.
5/ The fact that the woman was driving with a dashcam is another cause for suspicion. It is illegal to film the movement of Ukrainian troops, and one would not be able to pass a checkpoint with a dashcam. Thus, the presence of a dashcam raises huge questions
6/ The car depicted in the video appears to be very clean, which is an unlikely condition for a vehicle traveling in a war zone. This gives the impression that the car was recently washed for the purpose of filming the video.
7/ The soldiers in the video appear to assault the woman because she speaks Russian, which is a trope that is often utilized in propaganda. The portrayal of the soldiers as two masked Ukrainian nationalists stopping a car with a woman and a child and then
8/ abusing them because they speak russian appears to be a manufactured narrative from russian propaganda playbook. Additionally, the woman's name appears to have a Muslim origin, which aligns with recent fake propaganda videos circulated by Russians,
9/ showing fake Ukrainian soldiers burning the Quran. It is worth noting that the location of the incident is deliberately obscure, making it difficult to determine where it took place. Additionally, all soldiers are conveniently wearing masks, obscuring their identity
10/ Furthermore, there is additional evidence suggesting that the video is staged. However, I will withhold further analysis until it is completed. The full video can be accessed via this link: t.me/readovkanews/5…
Additional: As the user @MrClarkyofAxel pointed out, the cross on back of the car is not a regular one, which is used by Ukrainian troops, but stylized Balkenkreuz, that resembled German troops during WW-2 period. Another clear indications of a staged propaganda piece.
Further analysis by @EjShahid provides independent confirmation of the location
The story takes an unexpected turn. Russian famous telegram channel, with over 300,000 subscribers, has admitted that the video is fake:
"The video is fake, our crooked exercise. In conducting such information operations, there is still much for us to learn and improve upon."
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One of the biggest problems of this war is that Ukraine and the West haven’t clearly defined what "winning" looks like. This has allowed the Russians to present the "Istanbul Agreements" as the only viable negotiation framework, due to the absence of a well-defined alternative.
2/ The "Victory Plan" presented by Zelensky is not a true negotiation framework, and it didn’t resonate with the previous administration, let alone the current White House administration. Of course, there are alternative options, such as Russia retreating to 1991 borders
3/ The problem is that Russia won't do that, and there is no realistic enforcement mechanism, short of intervention. The United States isn’t going to bomb Russia. This raises the question: what does a "desired outcome," based on the realities on the ground, actually look like?
Almost every day, we hear about strikes against targets inside Russia, but we rarely get the full picture of their actual impact on the war. Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight have joined efforts to analyze hundreds of data points to answer this question.
🧵Thread
2/ Our research covered the period from September 2024 to February 2025, divided into two sections: strikes on military targets, infrastructure, and on the energy sector. We found that strikes on Russia’s energy sector caused at least $658 million in damage over ~6 months
3/ The real damage to the Russian energy sector and the economy as a whole may be higher. In at least 67 out of 100 cases, Ukrainian strikes were successful, while in another 33 cases the result of the attacks remains unknown or it is impossible to prove Ukraine's involvement.
Kursk Offensive: A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight.
A condensed version of report for X. 🧵Thread:
1/ With Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sudzha, the operation is clearly approaching its conclusion though it is not yet entirely over.
2/ To assess the operation, not in isolation, but within the broader context of the war, we broke down the Kursk operation into 3 key questions: whether its geopolitical objectives were met, whether the attrition rate was favorable, and whether it achieved battlefield success
3/ To determine equipment attrition, we analyzed data from OSINT analyst @naalsio26, who tracks losses across multiple frontlines. Our graphs show losses from August to March but are not exhaustive, as they exclude some retreat-related losses. The cut-off date was March 10.
Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine
In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects
2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts.
3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories
One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help:
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report. 1/ 🧵Thread:
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people