1/ Various russian Telegram channels share a video that allegedly shows Ukrainians stopping a car with a woman and a child (the child is not seen), engaging in a verbal alteration, and then shooting at the car. This looks like a staged video, for the following reasons:
2/ The location where the video was filmed has reportedly been identified by the Telegram channel "Moscow Calling" as 47.9769473, 37.9534718. Source: t.me/m0sc0wcalling/…
3/ The identified location, 47.9769473, 37.9534718, is situated deep within the occupied territory of Donetsk, as can be seen on the DeepState map.
4/ The soldiers in the video are wearing yellow armbands, which is an uncommon practice among Ukrainian soldiers who currently wear green armbands. This raises suspicions about the authenticity of the soldiers depicted in the video.
5/ The fact that the woman was driving with a dashcam is another cause for suspicion. It is illegal to film the movement of Ukrainian troops, and one would not be able to pass a checkpoint with a dashcam. Thus, the presence of a dashcam raises huge questions
6/ The car depicted in the video appears to be very clean, which is an unlikely condition for a vehicle traveling in a war zone. This gives the impression that the car was recently washed for the purpose of filming the video.
7/ The soldiers in the video appear to assault the woman because she speaks Russian, which is a trope that is often utilized in propaganda. The portrayal of the soldiers as two masked Ukrainian nationalists stopping a car with a woman and a child and then
8/ abusing them because they speak russian appears to be a manufactured narrative from russian propaganda playbook. Additionally, the woman's name appears to have a Muslim origin, which aligns with recent fake propaganda videos circulated by Russians,
9/ showing fake Ukrainian soldiers burning the Quran. It is worth noting that the location of the incident is deliberately obscure, making it difficult to determine where it took place. Additionally, all soldiers are conveniently wearing masks, obscuring their identity
10/ Furthermore, there is additional evidence suggesting that the video is staged. However, I will withhold further analysis until it is completed. The full video can be accessed via this link: t.me/readovkanews/5…
Additional: As the user @MrClarkyofAxel pointed out, the cross on back of the car is not a regular one, which is used by Ukrainian troops, but stylized Balkenkreuz, that resembled German troops during WW-2 period. Another clear indications of a staged propaganda piece.
Further analysis by @EjShahid provides independent confirmation of the location
The story takes an unexpected turn. Russian famous telegram channel, with over 300,000 subscribers, has admitted that the video is fake:
"The video is fake, our crooked exercise. In conducting such information operations, there is still much for us to learn and improve upon."
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Overnight, Russian infantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it🧵:
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2/ The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maneuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel
3/ Many question how Russian forces crossed the border so quickly. The answer is simple — the border is a grey zone heavily surveilled and, hence doesn't have defensive structures. Instead, the defensive lines are positioned deeper within Ukrainian territory.
May 2nd updates on frontline developments from the Frontelligence Insight, including the information about a potential Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts
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🧵Thread
2/ After successes in the Ocheretyne area, Russian forces now have slightly more than 10 kilometers of ground between them and the T0504 highway, which connects Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. However, another potential threat is emerging from the northward-leading road.
3/ The Russian expansion into Arkhangel's'ke widens their range of possibilities and complicates Ukrainian efforts to establish a cohesive defensive system across such a broad area, particularly given the understaffing of many brigades.
Russian forces have gained tactically near Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, and have attempted a large assault towards Sivers'k. Frontelligence Insight provides a concise analysis of the current situation in this 🧵thread
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2/ According to on-the-ground reports, occasional Russian groups have temporarily crossed the canal at Chasiv Yar but didn't establish a bridgehead. A geolocated video by @giK1893 shows that Russians tried to set a position in the south of Chasiv Yar at the landbridge crossing
3/ Considering that Russians gathered superior means and forces in the area, it's a point of concern. It opens an opportunity to advance into the forest on the west side of the canal. If successful, this would provide them with the freedom to choose further assault directions.
Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today's analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and Ocheretyne
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2/ Ukrainian forces retreated from Ocheretyne and Solovyove. While the 115th brigade was blamed, the core issue is that many brigades are not in a condition to hold the enemy with disproportional advantage in personnel, artillery, vehicles, and air support along the frontline
3/ Our team has received reports of poor communication, coordination, and leadership. These problems are rooted in deeper systemic issues, like personnel shortages and challenges in preparing skilled officers for senior roles promptly and in holding them accountable
Russian Oligarchs' Role in Drone Manufacturing and Sanction Evasion: Investigating sanctions evasion with exclusive documents and email correspondence.
🧵Thread exposing manipulation, cover-ups, and state aid to evade sanctions revealed through leaked documents and emails:
2/ Russian companies aiding military production may not be easily discernible. Consider RusAgro, which presents itself solely as a major agricultural player, owned by sanctioned oligarch Vadim Moshkovich. Another key figure is Maxim Basov - its CEO. Keep these names in mind
3/ In addition to their association with RusAgro, Maxim Basov and Vadim Moshkovich co-founded a company called AssistAgro in 2021. Both RusAgro and AssistAgro have been subject to sanctions from both the US and Ukraine.
Battle for Chasiv Yar. Analysis, Implications, Projection
🧵Thread:
The battle for Chasiv Yar is a litmus test for both sides. Losing control of it will have dire results for Ukraine. Failure to capture Chasiv Yar on time would raise doubts about Russia's ability to seize Donbas
2/ Chasiv Yar's geography makes it a good defensive position, particularly compared to Bakhmut, blocking Russian progression toward key cities in the Donbas. This is evident on the elevation map, with warmer colors marking higher altitudes and colder colors indicating lower ones
3/ The road linking Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut has multiple bridges over the water channel, which runs through the eastern part of the town, creating a natural defensive barrier. With proper resource allocation, Chasiv Yar can be a formidable obstacle to advancing Russian troops.