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Tony Norfield

@StubbornFacts

Mar 30

The ‘petrodollar’🧵. Oil pricing, from UK£ to US$ to ? Current moves in historical context:
1. Pre-WW2, oil from the Gulf area was mainly priced in £, reflecting UK power in the region (Iran, Iraq, etc)
2. From the 1940s, with more US oil co. involvement & UK much weaker ... 1/7

2/7
... the $ took over oil pricing
(Saudi production was minuscule in 1938, then ⬆️ to 5.6% of world output in 1950, just behind Iran)
3. In the 1970s, 🇺🇸 stopped a Gulf effort to switch from $ to a basket of FX for oil pricing (mainly via security deal, extra IMF votes for ...

3/7
... Saudi Arabia)
4. Gulf FX bank deposits in $ soared in the 1970s, with higher oil prices
5. These were directed to the London FX market + investments in US Treasury securities
6. UK had already boosted $ FX dealing & eurodollar banking from the 1960s

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Tony Norfield

@StubbornFacts

Mar 27

#Bandera & the Brits. 🧵Stephen Dorril’s voluminous book on MI6 (publ. 2000) has lots of info on UK ‘intelligence’ using #Ukraine’s fascists in the 1940s. Guest appearances also from the US CIA, Canada & the Vatican! Fascism fine if anti-communist!
(Sorry, scans not great)

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Tony Norfield

@StubbornFacts

Dec 11, 2022

The global FX market reflects US domination. Only a tiny % of FX dealing is directly linked to commercial, international trade. Inherently unstable capitalist markets make all companies hedge, panic, etc! Latest shifts to use non-$ FX will change all this only slowly! 🧵 1/6

2/6
Key points on the global FX market, US$, China, etc.
- BIS produces the biggest FX survey every 3 yrs, latest for 2022
- US$ is involved in 88% of all global FX deals
- Euro just 31%; China’s FX was only 7% (but up from 4% in 2019)
Note: Total = 200%, as 2 FX in each

3/6
- Most FX trading is between financial companies (buy/sell securities, hedge, speculate), but non-financial companies also do this
- Very little FX trading (<<6%) is due to direct trade in goods & services!
- Volatile markets lead companies to do hedging, position changes

Read 6 tweets

Tony Norfield

@StubbornFacts

May 2, 2022

As the core of global capitalism, the US attracts big foreign investment: from central banks for FX reserves, redirected US funds (eg via tax havens) & foreign asset managers. It all helps fund US militarism. It may also be stolen! So how long will it go, or stay, there? 🧵 1/4

2/4 A crazy thing: some key funding still comes from China, which is on the receiving end of US sanctions! 🇷🇺 had sense to mostly exit US 🇺🇸 assets, but got caught elsewhere (Europe, etc). 🇨🇳 remains very exposed, despite plenty of hostile US actions!

3/4 The US gets this funding for its balance of payments, and more via the $ pricing of globally traded goods. No sign yet in official data of these reversing. But the split in the world economy promoted by the US will backfire IF others seek alternatives …

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