@DanielGDosen Russia is going hand to mouth with new mobiks & wounded mobiks being thrown into the meatgrinder.
The Russian Army order of battle (Orbat) may have been 400k in Feb 2022. The actual body count was not over 300k due to the ghost troop scam, AKA pretend troops exist & pocket pay.
@DanielGDosen Everything deployable - 190,000 - was sent in by the end of April 2022.
Lots of non deployable assets in Feb 2022 were made to be deployable throughout the year, deployed and consumed.
They stripped all of the training establishments and then stripped the academies,
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@DanielGDosen and gave all of the student-cadet junior officer commissions so they could deploy them, that happened Q2/Q3 2022.
RuAF also stripped the research establishments, and logistics for bodies.
It appears most were used up as infantry.
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@DanielGDosen The article on Russian military researchers talked about a tank crew made up of officers with specialty skills sets in areas of science who were dropped into a tank with maybe a day of training and told to figure it out themselves.
4/
@DanielGDosen It appears that some of the "Marine Bde" at Vuhledar were sailors pulled off warships, along with mobiks.
This naval crewman to Marine infantry manpower 'repurposing' was reported as starting to happen months ago.
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@DanielGDosen If there are more than 190,000 RuAF, Russian internal security forces, Donbas Colonial Militia, plus Wagner & other PMC combined right now in Ukraine. I'd be very surprised.
6/6
The "intact & seemingly undamaged" planes at Belbek airfield in that MAXAR satellite imagery could and likely are looking like this Russian helicopter.
What Ms. Tchakarova is referring to here Russian Reflexive Control information warfare techniques.
I've talked about it quite a bit during the Russo-Ukrainian War and how adherents of "Escalation Management" like @jacksullivan46 and Chancellor Scholz have been captured by it 1/
This particular passage from Timothy L. Thomas 2004 paper on the subject shows how Russia's Reflexive control infowar mapped & fed to each specific US tribal & professional demographic the data to get the message Russian wants those groups to believe. 3/
This explains the "Imperial Japanese Army at Saipan" behavior of wounded Russian soldiers killing themselves with grenades to prevent capture by Ukrainians.
Russian Mobiks are being ideologically conditioned to kill themselves, like IJA troopers were in WW2.
Russian Death Cult🧵
1/
There are multiple videos like this Russian ideological self-harm conditioned behavior surfacing.
There are still Western military officers -- including most flag ranks -- watching videos like the one below and denying FPV and other cheap DJI drones have fundamentally changed the way wars on the ground are fought.
In some forward areas there are now as many Ukrainian drone operators as infantry because FPV drones have all but replaced crew served infantry weapons.
The people on X saying Ukraine couldn't use ATACMS in the counter-battery role against Russian tactical ballistic missiles were shills, toadies, and trolls.
No one who was at all reality-based would have said anything so stupid.
2016 article at the link titled in english "WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT" makes clear Ukraine had a very tight intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance kill chain between its Spetsnaz and it's Tochka-U TBM & 300mm MLRS batteries.
These Spetsnaz teams spotted 120km Tochka-U & 90 km Smersh fire strikes to clear a "Fire corredor" maneuver lane for these OMG operations during the 2014-2015 ATO.
This was pre-ATO (2014) Ukrainian military doctrine used during the ATO.